Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
651 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER...YET WEAKER
COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO GRIDS...MAINLY ADDING MENTION OF POSSIBLE TORNADOES
IN NEW WATCH AREA (ALL COUNTIES EAST OF PREVIOUS WATCH).
OTHERWISE...EVERYTHING ON TRACK.

IN THE NEAR TERM...FOCUS IS ON COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SQUALL LINE
THAT IS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. SQUALL LINE WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PRODUCING A
CONTINUING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. CURRENT
MOVEMENT OF COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH FASTER GFS
WHICH MEANS THAT SQUALL LINE SHOULD CLEAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE
FORECAST AREA/NC PIEDMONT AROUND 01Z. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAS
OCCURRED TODAY WITH SOME AREAS IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS IN
EXCESS OF 5 INCHES WHICH PRODUCED SOME ISOLATED FLOODING. HEAVIEST
RAIN NOW ADVECTING NE OUT OF THE AREA AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING LIKELY
TO REMAIN OF THE ISOLATED VARIETY...SO NO FLOOD WATCH. EXPECT FAIRLY
RAPID CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE PRECIP POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN FACING MOUNTAIN
SLOPES ADJACENT TO TN...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. PRECIP TYPE WILL
BE MOSTLY LIQUID...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ABOVE 3000 FT DEVELOPING.
USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS AND 3 HOURLY GMOS FOR
TEMP TREND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM...SHORT TERM WILL START RATHER TRANQUIL AS FLAT UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THU. UPSLOPE PRECIP SHOULD ESSENTIALLY BE
OVER WITH BY 12Z WED IN THE MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE...EXPECT GENERALLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS WED INTO THU WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY ABOVE
SEASONAL VALUES. USED A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE FIELDS.

EXPECT SOME CHANGES TO OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK AS LONG WAVE TROUGH TO
THE WEST DEEPENS WHICH PRODUCES CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHERN GULF.
THIS LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE NE AND INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS
BY LATE FRI. THEREFORE...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THU NIGHT
WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN AREAS BY FRI MORNING.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE FOR FRI.
WITH SW FLOW ALOFT...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH THROUGH FRI SO THAT ALL PRECIP WILL BE LIQUID FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. STAYED CLOSE TO GMOS FIELDS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER THU NIGHT
AND FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 330 PM..A MODIFIED GFS SOLUTION WAS USED FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST.  ACTUALLY THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE WITH WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE OFF LOW IN ATLC WILL GIVE US A NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW EVENT AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.  HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP  UNTIL APPROACH
OF NEXT SYSTEM THAT DOES NOT QUITE GET INTO AREA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  NO MAJOR MODIFICATIONS IN TEMP FORECAST NECESSARY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE...STILL TIMING A LINE OF CONVECTION WITH
HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS. THE LINE HAS PASSED ALL OUR SITES EXCEPT KHKY
AND KCLT. WINDS WILL LOSE THEIR GUSTINESS BRIEFLY BEHIND THE
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
LATE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY SUNRISE. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT
AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW DRIES THINGS OUT. VFR WITH WESTERLY WINDS FOR
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRUSH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...
BRINGING A CHANCE OF CIG RESTRICTIONS AND PERHAPS PRECIPITATION.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-
     018-026-028-029.
NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>014-
     019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...ARK/LG
SHORT TERM...LG/RB
LONG TERM...VAD
AVIATION...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1130 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-051630-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1130 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

A LARGE SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON LEADING
TO ISOLATED RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND HIGH WATER AREAS.

AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND IT/S ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MORE ROBUST AND DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY TODAY...AN UNSEASONABLY
MILD AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS TO
GIVE RISE TO THE PROBABILITY THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT TORNADO
FORMATION AS WELL...WITH A STRONG TORNADO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
INTO EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

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