Severe Thunderstorm Warning 132, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
707 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THURSDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND IS EXPECTED
TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED TO MOVE THE LIKELY AREA OF CONVECTION EAST
INTO THE NORTHERN NC FOOTHILLS AND AWAY FROM THE TN LINE AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES. SO FAR ONLY A FEW HAIL REPORTS HAVE
BEEN RECEIVED FROM THE BIGGEST STORMS...BUT POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY BUT WEAKER THAN
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. SFC FNT/BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND STALLS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE BETTER
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND
MOISTURE. BEST FORCING WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...HAVE
CHC POP ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THEN HAVE LIKELY ESCARPMENT WITH DECREASING CHC ON EITHER
SIDE. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS FINALLY BRINGING AND END TO THE RECORD HEAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE STILL ON TRACK WITH MOVING THE
850MB RIDGE AXIS OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH ALLOWS A
SOUTHEAST FLOW TO DEVELOP AT LOW LEVELS...THEREBY ADVECTING SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE OUR WAY. THE MECHANICAL LIFT AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING WELL
INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING OFF TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...FUELING
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT SHOULD FIRE UP BY MIDDAY. HIGH TEMPS WERE
NUDGED UP A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON THE NEW GUIDANCE AND LACK OF ANY
WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNAL.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...DRY AIR SHOULD START WORKING IN FROM
THE EAST...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES A BIT TO THE WEST WITH
HELP FROM THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ON THE EAST COAST. DEWPOINTS MAY
MIX OUT AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S OR LOWER WHICH WILL PLACE A LIMIT ON
THE EXTENT AND LIKELIHOOD OF DEEP CONVECTION OUTSIDE THE MTNS. FOR
THE TIME BEING...THE AFTERNOON PRECIP CHANCES ARE KEPT CLOSE TO
CLIMO...THAT IS CHANCE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND SLIGHT CHC PIEDMONT...
BUT THIS MIGHT BE OVERDONE. TEMPS WERE ALSO NUDGED UP WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT IT WILL BE A DRIER DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FINALLY
UNDERGO SOME CHANGES WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF MOVING OFF THE
EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD SPELL THE REAL END
TO OUR HEAT WAVE AS UPPER TROFFING TAKES HOLD OVER THE EASTERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DO NOT EXPECT COOL TEMPS THOUGH
AS TEMPS WILL MERELY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL...MEANING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S OUTSIDE THE MTNS. THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE
ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT SOMETIME ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
LATEST GFS IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS IN DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF
THE FRONT UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. SO...AFTER EVENING CONVECTION DIES
DOWN OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT...THE REST OF FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET. THE SAME COULD BE SAID FOR
SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE EAST AS FORCING SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST.
EVENTUALLY... SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL TAKE HOLD UNTIL THE MAIN FRONTAL FORCING...SUCH AS IT
IS...ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY. THE FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO STALL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
MORE CONVECTION THAT IS MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THE FRONT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO WASH OUT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO THE FORECAST WAS
KEPT DRY FOR THE MOST PART. ANOTHER FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE FROM THE NW ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL MAINLY BE A THREAT TO THE NC TAF SITES AS THE MOST
ACTIVE PART OF THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST FORM THE MOUNTAINS.
CONVECTION WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN SC...BUT CUMULONIMBUS WILL HAVE
TO BE CARRIED GIVEN RADAR TRENDS OF CELLS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM GA.
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL...BUT SHOULD
ONLY GET DOWN TO MVFR AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST AND PICK UP BEFORE DAWN. EVEN WITH THE FRONT REMAINING IN
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE KEEPS CEILINGS...IF ANY WILL...VFR.
THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE...WHERE CUMULONIMBUS WILL BE CARRIED.

OUTLOOK...A FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE WEEK. THE
FRONT WILL HELP TO POOL MOISTURE AND TRIGGER MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND THE YEAR IN WHICH
THEY LAST OCCURRED FOR GSP...CLT...AND AVL.

GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG

WEDNESDAY 6/11  99 1914

CHARLOTTE

WEDNESDAY 6/11 100 1914

ASHEVILLE

WEDNESDAY 6/11  88 1981

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...JAT/RWH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JAT
CLIMATE...RWH/PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
402 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-112015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
402 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND
DAMAGING MICROBURSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT FROM SEVERE STORMS. THERE
WILL NOT BE MUCH WIND SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS BECOME
STATIONARY.

THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
THE PIEDMONT INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS TO AFFECT JUST ABOUT ANY PART OF THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH MID EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
616 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

NCZ064-065-SCZ002-003-102315-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-HENDERSON-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-TRANSYLVANIA-
616 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE...
NORTHWESTERN PICKENS...SOUTHERN HENDERSON AND SOUTHERN TRANSYLVANIA
COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

AT 609 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROSMAN...OR 12 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BREVARD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO JONES GAP
  STATE PARK...ROSMAN...LITTLE RIVER...LAKE TOXAWAY...ETOWAH...CEDAR
  MOUNTAIN...BREVARD...ROCKY BOTTOM AND CAESARS HEAD.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
619 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

SCZ010-011-102315-
ABBEVILLE-ANDERSON-
619 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ABBEVILLE AND
SOUTHEASTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

AT 618 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SECESSION LAKE...OR 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ABBEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN ABBEVILLE AND SOUTHEASTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

IVA...SECESSION LAKE...ANTREVILLE AND HONEA PATH...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
622 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

NCZ508-102245-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-
622 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTY
THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

AT 618 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FOREST CITY...OR 8 MILES
SOUTH OF RUTHERFORDTON...MOVING EAST AT 13 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BOSTIC...
  SPINDALE...HARRIS...FOREST CITY...ELLENBORO...CLIFFSIDE AND
  ALEXANDER MILLS.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
631 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

SCZ014-102315-
CHESTER-
631 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CHESTER COUNTY THROUGH 715 PM
EDT...

AT 631 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF BLACKSTOCK...OR 7 MILES
SOUTH OF CHESTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CHESTER COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

CHESTER...AND CORNWELL.

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
637 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

NCZ068-SCZ008-102330-
CHEROKEE-CLEVELAND-
637 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CHEROKEE AND SOUTHERN
CLEVELAND COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

AT 635 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF GAFFNEY...MOVING EAST AT 13
MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN CHEROKEE AND SOUTHERN CLEVELAND COUNTIES...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

BLACKSBURG AND EARL...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
639 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HAIL             4 NE BREVARD            35.28N 82.68W
06/10/2008  E0.75 INCH       TRANSYLVANIA       NC   CO-OP OBSERVER

            ONE TREE REPORTED BLOWN DOWN

&&

KRENTZ