Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
258 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THURSDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND IS EXPECTED
TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN OVER THE MTNS BUT LITTLE TO NONE ELSEWHERE.
LAPS DATA SHOWING CURRENT CONDITIONS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS MDL FORECAST.
AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY...DCAPE 800-1000 J/KG OVER THE MTNS
AND 1000-1400 ELSEWHERE...AND LITTLE TO NO BULK SHEAR. WITH THESE
CONDITIONS PULSE SEVERE IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MTNS AND PROBABLY THE FOOTHILLS. QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE
ENUF OF A TRIGGER OVER THE PIEDMONT. THERE IS A LEE TROF...BUT
CONVERGENCE IS WEAK. WILL KEEP LIKELY POP MTNS AND DIMINISH TO LOW
CHC PIEDMONT.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY BUT WEAKER THAN
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. SFC FNT/BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND STALLS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE BETTER
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND
MOISTURE. BEST FORCING WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...HAVE
CHC POP ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THEN HAVE LIKELY ESCARPMENT WITH DECREASING CHC ON EITHER
SIDE. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS FINALLY BRINGING AND END TO THE RECORD HEAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE STILL ON TRACK WITH MOVING THE
850MB RIDGE AXIS OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH ALLOWS A
SOUTHEAST FLOW TO DEVELOP AT LOW LEVELS...THEREBY ADVECTING SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE OUR WAY. THE MECHANICAL LIFT AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING WELL
INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING OFF TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...FUELING
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT SHOULD FIRE UP BY MIDDAY. HIGH TEMPS WERE
NUDGED UP A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON THE NEW GUIDANCE AND LACK OF ANY
WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNAL.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...DRY AIR SHOULD START WORKING IN FROM
THE EAST...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES A BIT TO THE WEST WITH
HELP FROM THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ON THE EAST COAST. DEWPOINTS MAY
MIX OUT AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S OR LOWER WHICH WILL PLACE A LIMIT ON
THE EXTENT AND LIKELIHOOD OF DEEP CONVECTION OUTSIDE THE MTNS. FOR
THE TIME BEING...THE AFTERNOON PRECIP CHANCES ARE KEPT CLOSE TO
CLIMO...THAT IS CHANCE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND SLIGHT CHC PIEDMONT...
BUT THIS MIGHT BE OVERDONE. TEMPS WERE ALSO NUDGED UP WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT IT WILL BE A DRIER DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FINALLY
UNDERGO SOME CHANGES WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF MOVING OFF THE
EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD SPELL THE REAL END
TO OUR HEAT WAVE AS UPPER TROFFING TAKES HOLD OVER THE EASTERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DO NOT EXPECT COOL TEMPS THOUGH
AS TEMPS WILL MERELY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL...MEANING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S OUTSIDE THE MTNS. THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE
ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT SOMETIME ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
LATEST GFS IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS IN DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF
THE FRONT UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. SO...AFTER EVENING CONVECTION DIES
DOWN OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT...THE REST OF FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET. THE SAME COULD BE SAID FOR
SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE EAST AS FORCING SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST.
EVENTUALLY... SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL TAKE HOLD UNTIL THE MAIN FRONTAL FORCING...SUCH AS IT
IS...ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY. THE FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO STALL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
MORE CONVECTION THAT IS MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THE FRONT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO WASH OUT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO THE FORECAST WAS
KEPT DRY FOR THE MOST PART. ANOTHER FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE FROM THE NW ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION BEGINNING OVER THE NC MTNS ATTM. EXPECT COVERAGE TO
INCREASE ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH CB
BECOMING VCTS AT KAVL. KHKY ALSO HAS A DECENT CHC OF SEEING TS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL KEEP THEM CB AND BKN CU. TS CHANCES LOW ENUF TO
LEAVE OUT OF THE OTHER TAFS FOR NOW. BKN VFR CIG MORE LIKELY CLOSER
TO THE MTNS AS WELL. MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES OVERNIGHT BRINGING
IN A BKN DECK WITH SCT TO FEW CU REMAINING. VSBY FORECAST TONIGHT
TRICKY. DIRTY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA...BUT FLOW
BECOMES NLY. ALSO MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY HELP PREVENT FOG/HAZE
DEVELOPMENT. THAT SAID...MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MVFR VSBY
DEVELOPING AT KAVL...BUT LESS SURE ELSEWHERE. THEREFORE...HAVE
LIMITED RESTRICTIONS TO KAVL OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD END UP WITH MVFR
ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY WED. HOWEVER...BEST MOISTURE NOW HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON.
KEPT CLOUDS AS SCT CU AND BKN MID LEVEL. PRECIP POTENTIAL IS BETTER
LATER AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
MOVING BACK NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL HELP TO
POOL MOISTURE AND TRIGGER MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND THE YEAR IN WHICH
THEY LAST OCCURRED FOR GSP...CLT...AND AVL.

GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG

WEDNESDAY 6/11  99 1914

CHARLOTTE

WEDNESDAY 6/11 100 1914

ASHEVILLE

WEDNESDAY 6/11  88 1981

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RWH
CLIMATE...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
458 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-110900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
458 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE STORMS
WHICH DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME SEVERE.
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING MICROBURSTS ARE THE
MAIN THREAT FROM SEVERE STORMS TODAY. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH WIND
SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOME ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS BECOME STATIONARY.

THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS TO
AFFECT JUST ABOUT ANY PART OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA LATER TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1111 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             CHESTER                 34.71N 81.21W
06/09/2008  E0.75 INCH       CHESTER            SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

&&

JMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1130 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             11 W CHESTER            34.71N 81.41W
06/09/2008  E0.75 INCH       CHESTER            SC   PUBLIC

            HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES FELL FROM THE WEST SIDE OF
            CHESTER TO 11 MILES WEST OF CHESTER AROUND 6 PM AND
            LASTED FOR 30 MINUTES.

&&

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1152 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             PACOLET                 34.90N 81.77W
06/09/2008  E1.00 INCH       SPARTANBURG        SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            HAIL SIZE VARIED BETWEEN NICKEL AND QUARTER

&&

JMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1215 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW GREER              34.96N 82.26W
06/09/2008                   GREENVILLE         SC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MULTIPLE TREES HIT POWERLINES IN LAKE CUNNINGHAM FIRE
            DISTRICT

&&

JMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
319 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HAIL             WAYNESVILLE             35.48N 83.00W
06/09/2008  E0.88 INCH       HAYWOOD            NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            COVERED GROUND IN 3 MINUTES

&&

JMS