Alert archive / North Carolina / Red Flag Warnings in 2008

Red Flag Warning 7, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

February 19, 200816 counties in North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this red flag warning at Feb 19, 2008, 3:44 PM EST for 16 counties in North Carolina. It took effect at Feb 20, 2008, 9:00 AM EST. It was in force for 11 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 19, 2008, 3:44 PM EST (20:44 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 20, 2008, 9:00 AM EST
Expired
Feb 20, 2008, 7:47 PM EST
In force
11 hr
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Counties Alexander County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davie County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Union County, NC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 117 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 133 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2008-02-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2008-02-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -167 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1824 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
117 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-167 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
72 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WWUS82 KGSP 192044
RFWGSP

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
344 PM EST TUE FEB 19 2008

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-502-504-200500-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FW.W.0007.080220T1400Z-080221T0200Z/
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-080219T2300Z/
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
344 PM EST TUE FEB 19 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM EST
WEDNESDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON. 

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 25 PERCENT
AND LOW FUEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WINDS
WINDS MAY GUST A LITTLE HIGHER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

NCZ082-506-508-510-200500-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FW.W.0007.080220T1400Z-080221T0200Z/
UNION NC-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-
344 PM EST TUE FEB 19 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO AROUND
25 PERCENT AND LOW FUEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$
MCAVOY
5 follow-up statements
000 
WWUS82 KGSP 192354
RFWGSP

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
654 PM EST TUE FEB 19 2008

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-201100-
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.W.0007.080220T1400Z-080221T0200Z/
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-
654 PM EST TUE FEB 19 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 25 PERCENT...
AND LOW FUEL MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY... 
AND MAINTAIN DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$
000 
WWUS82 KGSP 201041
RFWGSP

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
541 AM EST WED FEB 20 2008

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-202200-
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.W.0007.080220T1400Z-080221T0200Z/
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-
541 AM EST WED FEB 20 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF
NORTH CAROLINA.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 25 PERCENT...
AND LOW FUEL MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
SERVE TO MAINTAIN DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

MOORE
000 
WWUS82 KGSP 201435
RFWGSP

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
935 AM EST WED FEB 20 2008

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-202300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-080221T0200Z/
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-
935 AM EST WED FEB 20 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR MUCH OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 25 PERCENT...
AND LOW FUEL MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL SERVE TO MAINTAIN DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$
07
000 
WWUS82 KGSP 202015
RFWGSP

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
315 PM EST WED FEB 20 2008

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-210200-
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-080221T0200Z/
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-
315 PM EST WED FEB 20 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 25 PERCENT...
AND LOW FUEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THIS WILL
SERVE TO MAINTAIN DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$
000 
WWUS82 KGSP 210047
RFWGSP

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
747 PM EST WED FEB 20 2008

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-210200-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-080221T0200Z/
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-
747 PM EST WED FEB 20 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS
CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING. 

RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS INCREASED AND WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...SO THE
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$
LANE

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Feb 19, 3:37 PM EST, 7 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 19, 3:37 PM EST, 7 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
337 PM EST TUE FEB 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LATE THIS WEEK...WITH PERSISTENT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
ESPECIALLY FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.  EXPECT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION TONIGHT...WITH CHANNELED ENERGY PASSING NORTH AND SOUTH OF
OUR AREA WHILE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. UPPER LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT...BUT SLOWLY
ENOUGH THAT THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING IN
THE NC MOUNTAINS AND RABUN COUNTY GA. WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST BY MORNING. MOISTURE ALONG THE TN BORDER IN WESTERLY FLOW
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH...ENDING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW THERE EARLY
BY EARLY EVENING. BY MORNING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SURFACE WAVE IN THE
OH VALLEY WILL SPREAD EAST...MAINLY ACROSS NC. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LOWERING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TWO DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BUT WITH THE WIND UP A BIT AND SOME CLOUDS COVER...
FORECAST VALUES WILL NOT BE LOWERED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...MULTIPLE CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WIND
AND RH WILL BE AT OR CLOSE TO RED FLAG NUMBERS WED. ADDITIONAL
DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW. CLIPPER-TYPE
LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT ENUF
MOVES INTO THE NC MTNS FOR CHC POP ALONG THE TN BORDER AND SLIGHT
CHC NRN FOOTHILLS AND CENTRAL MTNS. MID LEVELS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SO LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES RISE...BUT WILL BE
MODIFIED BY INCREASING CLOUDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY
BY AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MIXING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS. EXPECT THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL ONCE AGAIN NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MTNS AND
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ELSEWHERE.

IF THAT WAS NOT COMPLICATED ENUF...COLD DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA AS THE CLIPPER FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD WED NITE. COULD
BE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
MTNS...AT LEAST EARLY. THEREFORE...HAVE POP WED EVENING SIMILAR TO
WED AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHC SW MTNS OVERNIGHT.
WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA...WILL LIKELY SEE A
CHANGEOVER TO A WINTRY MIX. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT QPF WILL BE VERY
LIGHT DURING THIS TIME...SO ONLY MINIMAL SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION AT
WORST.

THE COMPLICATIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA. GFS IS NOT AS COLD AS THE NAM AND HAS A FASTER
MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE TOP OF THE COLD DOME THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ENSEMBLES ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS. HAVE GONE WITH A MODEL BLEND
WHICH BRINGS POP TO LIKELY OVER THE MTNS BY AFTERNOON AND CHC
ELSEWHERE. WENT WITH A BLEND IN THE THERMAL FIELDS AS WELL...MEANING
A RAIN/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX IN THE MORNING CHANGES TO A
RAIN/SLEET MIX FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHC FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP
WILL BE OVER THE AREA BASICALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85 AND ALONG
AND EAST OF I-26. THAT SAID...WITH THE DRY LOW LEVELS...QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT SO NO ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED NOW.

LIKELY POP SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...NAM HOLDS
ONTO THE COLD LOW LEVELS LONGER THAN THE GFS. ENSEMBLES TRENDING
WARMER...SO WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR THERMAL STRUCTURE AND TEMPS.
THIS KEEPS FREEZING SFC TEMPS CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN MTNS...
FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT. STILL HAVE RAIN OR SLEET STARTING OUT IN
THE AREA MENTIONED ABOVE. SLOWLY TRIM THE SLEET AREA NORTH AND EAST
THRU THE EVENING...AND ADD FREEZING RAIN TO THOSE BELOW FREEZING
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. RIGHT NOW...I HAVE ADVISORY LEVEL ICE ACCUMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN TIER. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO...BUT WILL KEEP A HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...AS MY PART OF THE FORECAST STARTS AT 12 UTC
FRI...THE DYE WILL PRETTY MUCH BE CAST AS FAR AS THE EVOLUTION OF
THE EVENT GOES. THE 12 UTC ECMWF HAS ITS BEST FORCING MOVING ACROSS
THE FA IN THE 06 TO 18 UTC FRI PERIOD. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH THE GFS BRINGS IT/S BEST FORCING ACROSS THE FA
DURING ABOUT THE SAME TIME. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE TOO TRANSITORY TO HELP MAINTAIN STRONG LLVL COLD ADVECTION
DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. IF THIS HOLDS TRUE...THEN ICE
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW ICE STORM WARNING CRITERIA. THE
SREF PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN IS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE
NORTH OF I-40 BETWEEN 12 AND 15 UTC FRI...AND GOES DOWN FROM THERE.
CONSIDERING THAT THE SREF SFC PRESSURES AND LLVL THICKNESSES ARE A
GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARMER GFS AND THE COOLER NAM...THIS
ALSO SUPPORTS MY PRESENT THINKING. WE CERTAINLY AREN/T OUT OF THE
WOODS YET...ESPECIALLY IF WE SEE AN EARLIER ONSET TO PCPN.

THE SRN STREAM REMAINS QUITE STRONG THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...AND
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL ZIP ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
THE LATEST ECMWF HAS A MORE AMPLIFIED WAVE AND THE WAVE IS A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...WE
COULD SEE A BAND OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ON SUNDAY. FOR
NOW...HOWEVER...THAT PART OF THE FORECAST IS DRY...BOTH TO MAINTAIN
CROSS-FA CONSISTENCY AND BECAUSE IT WON/T TAKE MUCH OF A NORTHWARD
OR SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE WAVE TO KEEP US OUT OF THE PCPN.

AND FINALLY...ON TUESDAY A DEEPER FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE FA...PUSHING A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF IT. INCLUDED A CHANCE OF RAIN
ON TUESDAY. CAN/T SAY MUCH MORE THAN THAT...THOUGH THE EC AND GFS
ARE ACTUALLY IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG DOWNWARD
VERTICAL MOTION ARRIVES WITH 850 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 40 KNOTS.
KAVL SHOULD FINALLY VEER AROUND TO NORTHWEST AS SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW
BECOMES CHANNELED UP VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...BUT BY LATE EVENING GUIDANCE BRINGS THE WIND BELOW 10
KNOTS...AND EVEN BACKS IT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST. GUIDANCE PAINTS
CEILINGS AT KAVL TONIGHT...BUT WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE TRAPPED ON
THE TN SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL BE CARRIED
THERE. MOISTURE INCREASES WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...MAINLY IN NC...WHILE WINDS BACK FURTHER AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS. MORE GUSTINESS IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
MAINLY AFTER THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COMPLEX
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND CEILING AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH WINTER
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THURSDAY. A FRONT WITH SEVERAL TRANSIENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY SATURDAY...WITH
DRYING FOLLOWING ON SUDAN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DEEP MIXING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW MAXIMUM POTENTIAL.
DEW POINTS WILL BE LOW...BUT NOT LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...COORDINATION WITH NC LAND MANAGERS INDICATES
FINE FUELS ARE VERY DRY AND THE EXPECTED WINDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE FIRE DANGER. THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE PIEDMONT...AND LOW ELEVATION FOOTHILLS.

COORDINATION WITH SC AND GA LAND MANAGERS INDICATE FUELS ARE A
LITTLE MORE MOIST OVER THOSE AREAS. HOWEVER...DRY FINE FUELS AND
EXPECTED WINDS COULD INCREASE FIRE DANGER THERE. WILL ISSUE A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS THERE.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR GAZ010.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ017-
     018-026-028-029.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>072-502-504.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     SCZ001>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...JAT
FIRE WEATHER...RWH
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 19, 4:28 AM EST, 11 hours 16 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
428 AM EST TUE FEB 19 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ001>014-019-200930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
428 AM EST TUE FEB 19 2008

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
   FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
ON THURSDAY...MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH WILL MOVE OVER THE
TOP OF A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET. IF THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY...A WINTRY MIX IS
POSSIBLE. FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS WILL DETERMINE IF AN ADVISORY IS
ISSUED FOR THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-082-506>510-200930-
MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-UNION NC-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
428 AM EST TUE FEB 19 2008

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
ON THURSDAY...MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH WILL MOVE OVER THE
TOP OF A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET. IF
THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY...A WINTRY MIX IS
POSSIBLE. FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS WILL DETERMINE IF AN ADVISORY IS
ISSUED FOR THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-502-504-200930-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
428 AM EST TUE FEB 19 2008

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
   RED FLAG WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
ON THURSDAY...MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH WILL MOVE OVER THE
TOP OF A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP LATE
IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET. IF THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY...A WINTRY MIX IS
POSSIBLE. FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS WILL DETERMINE IF AN ADVISORY IS
ISSUED FOR THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-200930-
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
428 AM EST TUE FEB 19 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
ON THURSDAY...MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH WILL MOVE OVER THE
TOP OF A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET...AND
SNOW. IF THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY...A
WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE. FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS WILL DETERMINE IF AN
ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Feb 19, 10:52 AM EST, 4 hours 52 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1052 AM EST TUE FEB 19 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ001>014-019-200000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...
ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...
GREENWOOD
1052 AM EST TUE FEB 19 2008

...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20 PERCENT
RANGE ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL. ALTHOUGH TEN HOUR FUEL MOISTURES
ARE ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL...FINE FUELS
WILL DRY QUICKLY TODAY...AND HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED.

07

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 18, 7:25 PM ESTRed Flag WarningGSPAlexander, Burke, Cabarrus, Caldwell, Catawba, Cleveland and 6 more23 hr
Feb 19, 3:55 AM ESTWind AdvisoryGSPAvery, Buncombe, Burke, Caldwell, Graham, Haywood and 11 more16 hr

Nearby

Red Flag Warnings in North Carolina, 2008Every red flag warning in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.