Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
123 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2008

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION ...

.SYNOPSIS...(315 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2008)
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TODAY AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION TO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND
RESULT IN DRY AND COOL WEATHER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
INDEPENDENCE DAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY. IN FACT DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE FOR OUR HOLIDAY WEEKEND ALONG WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(315 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2008)
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)

VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO OUR GOING FCST. THE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR CWFA BEGINNING BY AROUND
18Z THIS AFTN ACROSS OUR NW CWFA AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWFA.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS... BUT A LARGE SVR WX EVENT
IS NOT EXPECTED. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR SVR WX WILL BE
BETWEEN 18Z AND 04Z... AND PARTICULARLY FROM MID AFTN THROUGH MID
EVE COINCIDENT WITH MAX INSTABILITY (LATEST 21Z SREF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ML CAPES WILL REACH 1000-1500 J/KG IN THAT TIME FRAME
ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWFA).

GIVEN UPSTREAM REPORTS ACROSS NORTHERN MN... HAIL SHOULD BE OUR
PRIMARY SVR WX THREAT (MAINLY IN THE THREE QUARTERS TO ONE INCH
DIAMETER RANGE). A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN
FCST KINEMATIC WIND PROFILES AND 0-3KM SHEAR WHICH COULD BECOME
CONDUCIVE TO BOWING SEGMENTS.

AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT... BUT THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE SETUP DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOGENESIS TO OCCUR UNLESS IF A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAN
DEVELOP IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KTS.
BOTTOM LINE... WE SUSPECT THAT SOME STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE THIS
AFTN AND EVE... BUT A LARGER SCALE SVR WX EVENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

IT WILL BE DRY AND RATHER COOL THURSDAY W/MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING IN AND VERY
COOL N TO NE SFC FLOW. 00Z GFS GUIDANCE TIME HEIGHT RH PROGS
INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING 925-850 MB MOISTURE... SO I
SUSPECT A SCT TO POTENTIALLY BKN CU DECK WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN IN SPITE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. MORE
EXTENSIVE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL NE WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRIER AIR IN.

WE WILL STICK WITH A DRY FCST FOR FRIDAY. WE ARE NOT BUYING 00Z GFS
GUIDANCE WHICH DEVELOPS SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWFA FRIDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTN. THIS SEEMS TO BE ATTRIBUTABLE TO A
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAX PLACED TOO FAR NORTH. A CONSENSUS
BLEND OF LATEST SREF... WRF AND GLOBAL GEM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
DRY WX WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY. THIS SEEMS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO AND PRESERVES CONTINUITY WITH OUR GOING FCST... ALTHOUGH I
AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS THE H5
TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(315 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2008)
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WARMER
AND MORE HUMID WEATHER FOR LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS SFC RIDGE MOVES
EAST AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP.

A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
SLOWS DOWN AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW BY EARLY TUESDAY
AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA MUCH OF TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...(1141 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2008)
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 MPH THIS AFTN AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WAVE HEIGHTS 3 TO NEAR 5 FEET ENTIRE
NEARSHORE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LAKE BY 09Z THUR.
HOWEVER ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTH
WIND/SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION BY THUR AFTN.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL... GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD TO MARINERS THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(123 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2008)
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GO DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR SOON AFTER THE STORMS CLEAR EACH TAF
SITE... THOUGH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING.... ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF GRAND RAPIDS. THERE WILL BE
A SLOW CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN GO
NORTHWEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT SOME GUSTS OVER
20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(315 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2008)
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED SINCE BASIN AVG QPF OF
ONLY AROUND A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED... WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 1.00-1.50 INCHES POSSIBLE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 651 IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE AREA.
LM...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 651 WHOLE LAKE THROUGH 5 PM AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HOLLAND TO MANISTEE THROUGH 10 PM THIS
EVENING.

&&

SYNOPSIS:     LAURENS
SHORT TERM:   LAURENS
LONG TERM:    OSTUNO
MARINE:       LAURENS/IOD
AVIATION:     OSTUNO/IOD
HYDROLOGY:    LAURENS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
604 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2008

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-031015-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
604 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE
GREATEST THREAT...BUT A TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE EAST AT ABOUT 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

LMZ844>849-031015-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
604 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET WILL POSE A HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT. RIP
CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL ALONG AREA BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET WILL POSE A HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT ON
THURSDAY.

OSTUNO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
253 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     HAIL             SPARTA                  43.16N 85.71W
07/02/2008  M0.50 INCH       KENT               MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            WIND GUST MEASURED AT 42 MPH.

&&

MKALEMBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
255 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0254 PM     HAIL             MARNE                   43.04N 85.83W
07/02/2008  E0.70 INCH       OTTAWA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MARNE EXIT AT INTERSTATE 96. MEDIUM BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

MKALEMBK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
258 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 PM     HAIL             1 W GRAND RAPIDS        42.96N 85.68W
07/02/2008  M0.88 INCH       KENT               MI   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

MKALEMBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
300 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     TSTM WND GST     ROTHBURY                43.51N 86.35W
07/02/2008  M50 MPH          OCEANA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL.

0210 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ROTHBURY                43.51N 86.35W
07/02/2008  M3.02 INCH       OCEANA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAIN FELL IN 1/2 HOUR.

&&

MKALEMBK

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