Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
503 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2008

LATEST UPDATE...ALL BUT AVIATION AND HYDROLOGY ...

.SYNOPSIS...(503 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2008)
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT BRINGING AN END TO
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEFORE MOVING ON... SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION TO BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN... OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND RESULT IN DRY AND COOL
WEATHER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. INDEPENDENCE DAY CONTINUES TO
LOOK DRY. IN FACT DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR OUR HOLIDAY WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(503 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2008)
(TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW)

VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO OUR GOING FCST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

IT WILL BE DRY AND RATHER COOL THURSDAY W/MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING IN AND VERY
COOL N TO NE SFC FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(503 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2008)
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
WE WILL STICK WITH A DRY FCST FOR FRIDAY. WE ARE NOT BUYING 00Z GFS
GUIDANCE WHICH DEVELOPS SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWFA FRIDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTN. THIS SEEMS TO BE ATTRIBUTABLE TO A
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAX PLACED TOO FAR NORTH. A CONSENSUS
BLEND OF LATEST SREF... WRF AND GLOBAL GEM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
DRY WX WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY. THIS SEEMS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO AND PRESERVES CONTINUITY WITH OUR GOING FCST... ALTHOUGH I
AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS THE H5
TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS.

FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WARMER
AND MORE HUMID WEATHER FOR LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS SFC RIDGE MOVES
EAST AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP.

A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
SLOWS DOWN AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW BY EARLY TUESDAY
AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA MUCH OF TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...(503 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2008)
WINDS WILL BE COMING AROUND TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WAVE HEIGHTS 2 TO 4 FEET EXPECTED
FOR THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LAKE
BY 09Z THUR. HOWEVER... ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE FOR
NORTH WIND/SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION BY THUR AFTN.

THUNDERSTORMS... GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL POSE A
SIGNIFICANT HAZARD TO MARINERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(123 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2008)
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GO DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR SOON AFTER THE STORMS CLEAR EACH TAF
SITE... THOUGH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING.... ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF GRAND RAPIDS. THERE WILL BE
A SLOW CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN GO
NORTHWEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT SOME GUSTS OVER
20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(315 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2008)
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED SINCE BASIN AVG QPF OF
ONLY AROUND A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED... WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 1.00-1.50 INCHES POSSIBLE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 654 IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 PM FOR
ENTIRE AREA.
LM...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 654 WHOLE LAKE THROUGH 11 PM.

&&

SYNOPSIS:     IOD
SHORT TERM:   IOD
LONG TERM:    IOD
MARINE:       IOD
AVIATION:     OSTUNO/IOD
HYDROLOGY:    LAURENS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
604 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2008

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-031015-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
604 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE
GREATEST THREAT...BUT A TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE EAST AT ABOUT 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

LMZ844>849-031015-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
604 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET WILL POSE A HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT. RIP
CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL ALONG AREA BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET WILL POSE A HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT ON
THURSDAY.

OSTUNO

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