Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
116 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2008

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(441 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2008)
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND WILL RUN INTO
THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE REGION.  SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.  THE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CALM DOWN BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION.  WE WILL REMAIN UNDER A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO THE WEEKEND.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 96.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2008)
MAIN FOCUS WAS ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT BUMPS INTO THE WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS IN PLACE.  THEN
THE NEXT ISSUE WAS DETERMINING THE EXTENT OF THE PCPN CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEVERE WEATHER STILL REMAINS A DECENT POSSIBILITY INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WE ARE A BIT WORRIED ABOUT A REAL SOLID
TRIGGER AS THE COLD FRONT THAT IS COMING IN WILL BE WEAKENING.  WE
WILL ALSO BE MISSING A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL JET POSITIONING.  THE
FRONT HOWEVER WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG H7 WINDS OF AROUND 50
KTS.  THIS WILL LEAD TO RAPIDLY MOVING STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
BOWING CELLS PRODUCING WIND DAMAGING.  AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE HIGH VALUES OF HELICITY.  FREEZING LEVELS ARE
PROGGED TO DROP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO SOME LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STORMS CLOSER TO THE FRONT.  THE MOST FAVORABLE
WIND FIELDS CROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHERE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
MOST LIKELY...AND WILL SHOW THIS IN THE GRIDS AND ZFP. THE TIME
FRAME FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO RUN FROM AS EARLY AS 17Z IN THE
WESTERN CWA...AND EXITS THE SERN CWA BY 03Z.  I/M NOT SURE HOW SOLID
THE AREA OF STORMS WILL BE WITH THE FRONT GIVEN THE LACK OF A SOLID
TRIGGER.  SOME AREAS WILL PROBABLY MISS OUT ENTIRELY ON THE
PCPN...SO HAVE REDUCED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE.

THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL BE OVERHEAD EARLY
THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN THE SCATTERED STORMS.  THIS
SUPPORT WANES QUICKLY AS THE FRONT ALSO EXIT THE CWA AROUND 03Z.
WITH THE FRONT WASHING OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE OVER.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE LIKELY TO REACH 90 AWAY FROM THE
LAKESHORE SO I HAVE INCREASED VALUES BY SEVERAL DEGREES.

SATURDAY SHOULD BEGIN QUIET...HOWEVER WITH DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN
THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE WE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON.
WOULD EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE
SUNDAY.  THIS SHOULD PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED STORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 96.

&&

.LONG TERM...(1133 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2008)
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM ON MON. SFC FRONT WILL BE TRYING TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA...BUT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME INITIALLY AS THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT AND THROUGH THE AREA. WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY...
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DECENT MID LEVEL WINDS
OVERHEAD. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE POSSIBLE
TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS.

MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG ENOUGH PIECE OF ENERGY WILL RIDE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT AND TUE...AND ALLOW FOR GOOD
PUSH OF THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH. WE WILL KEEP IN POPS THROUGH TUE
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH DOES NOT PASS UNTIL THEN. SOME COOLER AND
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN TEMPORARILY.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE WED THROUGH THU TIME FRAME. BEGINNING LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT...THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
AND HEAD NORTHEAST TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PUSH THE
SFC FRONT INTO THE AREA...AND BRING WARMER AND HUMID AIR IN...ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...(1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2008)
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE CONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON
AS SOUTH WINDS TO 30  KNOTS WILL STIR UP CHOPPY WAVES.  I DID ADD
THAT WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.  THE
WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS  THE FRONT EXITS.  WAVE ACTION WILL
DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT.  IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE RELATIVE COOL WATERS WILL
PRODUCE A STABLE LAYER OVER THE LAKE.  SO WAVES SHOULD RANGE 1 TO 3
FEET OVER THE SOUTHERN END...AND 2 TO 4 FEET ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(116 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2008)
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE THIS MORNING ARE NOW CLOUDING OVER AS
HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN...AND SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS TAKING
PLACE. WE ARE EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF SITES DURING THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME.
STRONGER WIND GUSTS LOOK LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES. THE ONLY SITE THAT MAY NOT SEE CONVECTION WOULD BE
KMKG WITH THE LAKE INFLUENCE THERE DUE TO THE SW WINDS OFF OF THE
LAKE. WE HAVE MENTIONED VCTS FOR NOW THERE...AND WILL UPDATE AS
NEEDED IF THUNDER APPROACHES.

ONCE LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING...AREA SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PCPN. RAINFALL FROM THE
STORMS COMBINED WITH A MOIST AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE LOOKS TO BRING
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH BR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE
GONE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER IFR CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. BR/HZ
WILL MIX OUT THEN TOMORROW MORNING...LIKELY LIFTING INTO A SCT
CUMULUS DECK. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT
MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(441 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2008)
THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE PCPN SHOULD RESULT IN MINIMAL EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS.  HOWEVER WITH THE JUICY AIR MASS...PWAT VALUES AROUND
1.50 INCHES...SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY.  THIS COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING ST JOSEPH TO
HOLLAND.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HOLLAND TO MANISTEE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

SYNOPSIS:     JK
SHORT TERM:   JK/MJS
LONG TERM:    NJJ
MARINE        JK/MJS
AVIATION:     NJJ
HYDROLOGY:    JK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1235 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2008

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-071115-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
1235 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WEAK COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN THIS EVENING
WILL BRING WITH IT A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
BRIEFLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS.  AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.
AREAS EAST OF US-131 AND SOUTH OF I-96 BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM IS
WHERE AND WHEN THE GREATEST RISK OF THESE HAZARDS ARE. MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING AS LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EAST WITH THE COLD
FRONT.

IN ADDITION MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE WINDS GUSTING AROUND 40 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN WITHOUT ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN
RIDE ALONG THAT SAME FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY CONTINUING THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY RESULT IN LOCAL
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS MORE THAN POSSIBLE DURING THAT
TIME
PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ALSO
MAY BE NEED LATER SUNDAY.

LMZ844>849-071115-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
1235 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO 30 KNOTS WINDS OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
WILL BUILD WAVES TO AS HIGH AS 5 FEET. WAVES OF THAT HEIGHT POSE A
DANGER TO SMALL WATER CRAFT. THOSE SWIMMING NEAR THE BEACH WILL
HAVE A RIP CURRENT RISK.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND
30 MPH AND MAY CONTAIN WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ALSO
MAY BE NEED LATER SUNDAY.

WDM MJS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
435 PM EDT FRI JUN 06 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0434 PM     HAIL             DOWLING                 42.52N 85.25W
06/06/2008  E0.25 INCH       BARRY              MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GWETZEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
444 PM EDT FRI JUN 06 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             SHERIDAN                43.21N 85.07W
06/06/2008  E0.25 INCH       MONTCALM           MI   PUBLIC

            SMALL HAIL AND LIMBS DOWN.

0442 PM     HAIL             COOPER                  42.38N 85.57W
06/06/2008  E0.75 INCH       KALAMAZOO          MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HAIL AND ESTIMATED 60 MPH WIND GUST.

&&

GWETZEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
500 PM EDT FRI JUN 06 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0459 PM     HAIL             HICKORY CORNERS         42.44N 85.38W
06/06/2008  M0.25 INCH       BARRY              MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            NEAR ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN IN 15 MINUTES.

&&

GWETZEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
513 PM EDT FRI JUN 06 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S SUNFIELD            42.73N 84.99W
06/06/2008                   EATON              MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SILO TOPPLED.

&&

GWETZEL