Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
411 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2008

LATEST UPDATE...ALL SECTIONS BUT AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(411 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2008)
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED... AND AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD MIX WITH
OR EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL
PUSH DOWN FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... WHICH
WILL END THE PRECIPITATION AND BRING DECREASING CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(411 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2008)
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
SFC SYSTEM IS IN THE PROCESS OF OCCLUDING OVHD ATTM... WITH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO SWEEP IN FROM THE SW. MANY LOCALES WERE
ABLE TO CRACK 70 TODAY SOUTH OF I-96 WHILE TEMPS HAVE BEEN HOLDING
IN THE 40S NORTH OF I-96. WILL BE CANCELLING THE TOR WATCH FROM WEST
TO EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG/GUSTY JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTN/EVENING.

AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT... WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN ACROSS THE FAR NRN CWFA LATE
TONIGHT. WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST POPS ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
PASSES OVERHEAD... WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. AGAIN SOME SNOW
MAY MIX IN ACROSS THE NRN CWFA.

MOISTURE IS QUICK TO BAIL FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS UPPER SYSTEM DEPARTS AND NORTH FLOW DRIVES IN DRY AIR
MASS. FLOW ALSO BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC WITH TIME. WILL HAVE
DECREASING POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH... WITH THE WHOLE AREA DRY BY
18Z SUNDAY. IT MAY ACTUALLY BE EARLIER THAN THAT AND WE MAY SEE MORE
SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(411 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2008)
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK APPEARS RATHER QUIET WITH A WARMING TREND.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.  BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  MOISTURE LOOKS SOMEWHAT MEAGER
AND THE DYNAMICS APPEAR WEAK...SO WILL ONLY MENTION A LOW CHANCE POP
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  OTHERWISE...THE WEEK APPEARS DRY WITH
TEMPS WARMING FROM THE 40S ON MONDAY TO THE 60S BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(147 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2008)
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ON THE DOORSTEP AS OF 18Z.  THESE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FROM
WEST TO EAST.  THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MKG AROUND 1830Z AND EAST
TO JXN AROUND 2230Z.  THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES AS THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LOST.  LOW PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.  THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...HOWEVER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR OR MVFR.
AS THE LOW PASSES EAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING CEILINGS WILL LOWER
AND THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT.  EXPECT THAT MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE...OR EVEN BRIEF LIFR...BETWEEN
11Z AND 13Z AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...(411 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2008)
FOR AREAS NORTH OF WHITEHALL... THE OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE/LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT...SO HAVE
CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE. HOWEVER A STRONG NORTH
NORTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY WHICH MAY REQUIRE
ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

FOR AREAS SOUTH OF WHITEHALL... SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LULL LATER
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE THE STRONGER NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW KICKS
UP.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(411 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2008)
MOST RIVERS WILL HAVE ELEVATED LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FROM
THE ONE TO TWO INCHES WHICH FELL LAST NIGHT. A FEW POINTS MAY COME
CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE... BUT NO RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT. SEE THE RIVER STATEMENTS FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM ST JOE TO WHITEHALL THROUGH 12Z SAT.

&&

SYNOPSIS:   MEADE
SHORT TERM: MEADE
LONG TERM:  JK
AVIATION:   JK
MARINE:     MEADE
HYDROLOGY:  MEADE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
532 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2008

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-120945-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
532 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES. IN ADDITION
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.  THE MAIN STORM MOTION WILL BE NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH. THE TIME FRAME FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER IS FROM NOON TO 4
PM.

DUE TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...RUNOFF WILL LEAD TO RISING
STREAM AND RIVER LEVELS. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UNDER A HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

RISING WATER LEVELS ON STREAMS AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR
FLOODING INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

LMZ844>849-120945-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
532 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DUE TO THE WINDS AND WAVES...CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR
SMALL CRAFT THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AND IT WILL TURN COLDER THIS WEEKEND.
THUS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
354 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 PM     HAIL             2 S PORTLAND            42.84N 84.90W
04/11/2008  E0.25 INCH       IONIA              MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RSUTTLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
359 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     HAIL             8 S IONIA               42.87N 85.06W
04/11/2008  E0.50 INCH       IONIA              MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            INTERSTATE 96 AT MILE MARKER 65

&&

JK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
401 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2008

MIZ051-052-057>059-065-066-112100-
BARRY-CLINTON-EATON-GRATIOT-IONIA-KENT-MONTCALM-
401 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2008

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 400 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CARSON CITY TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HASTINGS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CRYSTAL...            PALO...               IONIA...
  HASTINGS...           IONIA...              HASTINGS...
  BUTTERNUT...          SUMNER...             SUMNER...
  LAKE ODESSA...        CARSON CITY...        WOODLAND...
  MUIR...               LYONS...              WOODBURY...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE
PASSED.

LAT...LON 4336 8454 4277 8484 4254 8508 4253 8553
      4336 8502
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 259DEG 13KT 4327 8493 4260 8540

COBB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
426 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     HAIL             AUGUSTA                 42.34N 85.35W
04/11/2008  E0.25 INCH       KALAMAZOO          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
429 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     HAIL             AUGUSTA                 42.34N 85.35W
04/11/2008  E0.50 INCH       KALAMAZOO          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RSUTTLE