Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Green Bay, WI

000 
WWUS53 KGRB 292148
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
448 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

WIC141-292215-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-080729T2215Z/
WOOD-
446 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN WOOD COUNTY...

AT 443 PM...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE 
HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MARSHFIELD AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 
21 MPH. ONE INCH HAIL WAS REPORTED AS THE STORM WAS MOVING THROUGH 
MARSHFIELD.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  AUBURNDALE AND BETHEL BY 500 PM...
  ARPIN BY 505 PM...
  SHERRY...BLENKER AND MILLADORE BY 515 PM...

TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 4468 9031 4468 9009 4469 9007 4469 8985
      4445 8984 4457 9033 4459 9033
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 293DEG 18KT 4461 9013

$$

SKOWRONSKI

000 
WWUS53 KGRB 292202
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
502 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

WIC141-292211-
/O.CAN.KGRB.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-080729T2215Z/
WOOD-
501 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN WOOD COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED. IT 
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARD THE SHERRY AND BLENKER AREAS...BUT THE 
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED.

GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 4468 9031 4468 9009 4469 9007 4469 8985
      4445 8984 4457 9033 4459 9033
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 293DEG 18KT 4458 9003

$$

SKOWRONSKI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
203 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

.SYNOPSIS...UPR RIDGE WHICH HAD BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE SWRN STATES
WL BUILD NEWD INTO THE PLAINS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WL LEAD TO
RISING HEIGHTS ACRS THE FCST AREA...AND A STRENGTHENING OF THE WLY
FLOW N OF THE RIDGE. SOME FLATTENING OF THE FLOW IS THEN LIKELY
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FCST PERIOD.

PATTERN WL BE TYPICAL OF MID-LATE SUMMER. EXPECT ABV NORMAL TEMPS...
WITH SOME 90 DEG MAXES POSSIBLE. PCPN CHCS WL BE TIED TO THE MVMT OF
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. IT/S OBVIOUSLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN THE TRACK OF THOSE VERY FAR IN ADVANCE. BEST
GUESS IS THAT AMNTS FOR THE NEXT WK WL END UP CLOSE TO NORMAL AT
MOST LOCATIONS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TNGT/WED. MAIN CONCERN IS SVR RISK THE REST OF THIS
AFTN AND EVENING. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS HELD BACK TEMPS...AND
DESTABILIZATION TO SOME EXTENT. STG MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETREATING NWD ACRS THE AREA HAS STILL
ALLOWED AXIS OF MLCAPES OF 1.5-2K J/KG TO DEVELOP JUST W OF THE FCST
AREA. THE INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD SHIFT EWD DURING THE REST OF THE
AFTN AND EVENING. GIVEN THE SHEAR...THAT SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT SOME SVR STORMS. WHAT MAY END UP BEING A LIMITING
FACTOR IS THE GRADUAL SHIFT TO A MORE WLY WIND THAT IS OCCURRING
TO THE WEST. THAT WL LIMIT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. WL MAKE ISSUANCE
TIME DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT TO HAVE EXPLICIT SVR IN THE
ZONES/GRIDS.

PCPN SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH OVER ARND MIDNIGHT...SO KEPT 06Z-12Z
PERIOD DRY. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLDS BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WAS
VERY AGGRESSIVE IN CLEARING. COULD BE SOME FOG AS WINDS DECOUPLE
AND SKIES CLR. WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED IF I WERE CONFIDENT WE
WOULD GET WIDEPSREAD SIG RAINS THIS EVENING. LEFT OUT OF THE FCST
FOR NOW.

LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM DAY ON WED. DWPTS WL DROP
OFF SOME...PROBABLY INTO THE UPR 50S OR LOWER 60S. STRONGLY
PREFER WARMER MAV NUMBERS AS THE AREA ALWAYS WARMS WELL UNDER WLY
FLOW. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE FIRST 90/S OF THE SEASON
TOMORROW...BUT HELD MAX TEMPS JUST BLO THAT FOR NOW. DEEP MIXING
INTO WNWLY 850 MB FLOW SHOULD KEEP LAKE BREEZE OFFSHORE...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY OVER THE NRN TIP OF THE DOOR PENINSULA.

.LONG TERM...THU THROUGH NEXT TUE...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY WILL NOSE INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN WED NIGHT AND SHIFT EAST ON THU. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON
LOCATION AND TIMING OF RETURN FLOW AND SMALL PERTUBATIONS ALONG
SFC BOUNDARY THAT SETTLES JUST SOUTH OF AREA EARLY IN PD. THIS
BOUNDARY THEN HEADS BACK N FOR THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...29/12Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TREND OF 90+ MAX TEMPS FOR PARTS OF FCST AREA. HAVE NUDGED UP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. WOULD BE FIRST 90 DEG TEMPS FOR
SEVERAL LOCATIONS...UNLESS WE REACH 90 TOMORROW. CAVEAT IS WEAK
BOUNDARY LURKING ACROSS THE AREA DURING PD...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION THAT COULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM
LATEST FCST.
&&

.AVIATION...ADDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA TO ALL TAFS FOR THE
AFTN/EVENING. RISK OF GETTING SOME TSRA IN THE FCST AREA IS FAIRLY
HIGH...BUT COVERAGE COULD BE LIMITED SO THEY MAY NOT AFFECT THE TAF
SITES. ALSO INCLUDED SOME MVFR FG FOR LATE TNGT. LOW VSBYS
POSSIBLE...MAYBE AS LOW AS LIFR...IN ANY AREAS THAT GET SIG
RAINFALL.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SKOWRONSKI/JKL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1155 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-301100-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
1155 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY RISK IS OF STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST RISK OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 200 PM AND 600 PM. THE
GREATEST RISK OVER CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 400 PM AND 900 PM. OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THE
GREATEST RISK WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 500 PM AND 1000 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A COUPLE MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BE SURE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS
WHICH WILL BE BETTER ABLE TO ESTIMATE THE SEVERE RISK THAT MAY BE
POSED BY THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL PROBABLY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

LMZ521-522-541>543-301100-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
1155 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A COUPLE MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BE SURE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS WHICH
WILL BE BETTER ABLE TO ESTIMATE THE SEVERE RISK THAT MAY BE POSED
BY THESE STORMS.

JS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
351 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

WIZ005-010>013-018>021-030-031-035>037-073-074-292125-
FLORENCE-FOREST-LANGLADE-LINCOLN-MARATHON-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN
MARINETTE COUNTY-NORTHERN OCONTO
COUNTY-ONEIDA-PORTAGE-SHAWANO-SOUTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-SOUTHERN
OCONTO COUNTY-VILAS-WAUPACA-WOOD-
351 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

AT 350 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM FOREST AND FLORENCE COUNTIES SOUTHWEST TO MARATHON
COUNTY.  THE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT NEAR 30 MPH.

WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

IF A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES YOUR AREA...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED...
SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM FOR MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

JKL