Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Green Bay, WI

000 
WWUS53 KGRB 291504
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1004 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

WIC069-291530-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0087.000000T0000Z-080729T1530Z/
LINCOLN-
1001 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 AM CDT
FOR LINCOLN COUNTY...

AT 958 AM...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CLUSTER OF SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 
STORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM TOMAHAWK TO 13 MILES 
NORTHWEST OF MERRILL. THE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 41 MPH.

THE STORMS HAD WEAKENED BETWEEN 950 AM AND 1000 AM. BUT THEY STILL 
APPEARED TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO 3/4 
INCH IN DIAMETER.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  HEAFFORD JUNCTION AND TOMAHAWK BY 1010 AM...
  MERRILL AND IRMA BY 1015 AM...
  PINE RIVER BY 1020 AM...
  DOERING...JEFFRIS...HARRISON AND GLEASON BY 1025 AM...

IF THE STORMS WEAKEN FURTHER...THE WARNING WILL BE CANCELLED BEFORE 
ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION TIME.

STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES. IF OUTDOORS...GO TO A 
STURDY SHELTER.

LAT...LON 4556 8956 4555 8955 4555 8942 4512 8942
      4513 9005 4556 9006
TIME...MOT...LOC 1501Z 272DEG 36KT 4549 8982 4525 8987

$$

SKOWRONSKI

000 
WWUS53 KGRB 291517
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1017 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

WIC069-291525-
/O.CAN.KGRB.SV.W.0087.000000T0000Z-080729T1530Z/
LINCOLN-
1015 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR LINCOLN COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED. THE 
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTY 
AND WILL AFFECT THE IRMA...GLEASON...AND BLOOMVILLE AREAS. GUSTY 
WINDS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE STILL POSSIBLE...BUT SEVERE 
WEATHER IS NO LONGER EXPECTED.

LAT...LON 4556 8956 4555 8955 4555 8942 4512 8942
      4513 9005 4556 9006
TIME...MOT...LOC 1515Z 272DEG 36KT 4548 8962 4524 8967

$$
JS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
444 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD ON CONVECTIVE CHANCES TODAY INTO THE
EVENING. STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN MN. 40-50KT MID
LEVEL JET TO MOVE INTO STATE THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING SHEAR
OVER AREA. WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT TO BRING SFC
DEW POINTS UP TO MID 60S...AROUND 70...MAKING FOR MORE HUMID
DAY...WITH SBCAPES RISING INTO THE 1 TO 2K RANGE. MODELS SHOWING
SOME DIFFERENCES WITH GFS BRINGING IN HIGHER DEW POINTS AND MORE
INSTABILITY IN MID LEVELS. CURRENT CONVECTION OVER EASTERN
MN...HANDLED FAIRLY GOOD BY RUC...THOUGH A BIT SLOW...BRINGING
REMNANTS INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS MORNING. QUESTION IS
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF FRONT AND TEMPERATURES GIVEN
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTION. LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR TODAY...THOUGH INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL
MAKE FOR WARM AND MUGGY DAY. FRONT TO PASS THROUGH CWA TONIGHT
PERIOD WITH HIGH BUILDING IN FOR WED.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY. DIFFERENCES
NOTED BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AS MODELS DIFFER ON LOCATION
AND TIMING OF RETURN FLOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW UNTIL MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
NIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...NEW GFS GUIDANCE VERY WARM COMPARED TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE NUDGED UP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...BUT
DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS THE MEX GUIDANCE. WEAK BOUNDARY LURING
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WILL
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE TRENDS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AND MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. WITH BOUNDARY LURKING
AROUND...A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS WARRANTED THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...

LOW VFR CIGS THIS AM TO LIFT NORTH...WHILE SHOWERS/TSTM AND SCT
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO MOVE BY THIS AFTERNOON...EVENING AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

TE/ECKBERG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
404 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-300915-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
404 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. CLOUDINESS REMAINING FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY
HINDER THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...THOUGH AREAS THAT
RECEIVE ADEQUATE SUNSHINE MAY SEE STORMS WITH THE PRIMARY RISK
BEING STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A COUPLE MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BE SURE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS
WHICH WILL BE BETTER ABLE TO ESTIMATE THE SEVERE RISK THAT MAY BE
POSED BY THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TODAY...AND INTO THE EVENING.

LMZ521-522-541>543-300915-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
404 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A COUPLE MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BE SURE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS WHICH
WILL BE BETTER ABLE TO ESTIMATE THE SEVERE RISK THAT MAY BE POSED
BY THESE STORMS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
941 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

WIZ010-018-019-291530-
LANGLADE-LINCOLN-ONEIDA-
941 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HEADED INTO LINCOLN COUNTY...

AT 940 AM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TRIPOLI TO 22 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
TRIPOLI...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  TRIPOLI AROUND 950 AM...
  TOMAHAWK AROUND 1010 AM...
  MERRILL AROUND 1015 AM...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

SKOWRONSKI