Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Green Bay, WI

000 
WWUS53 KGRB 200207
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
907 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008

WIC097-200245-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0074.000000T0000Z-080720T0245Z/
PORTAGE-
906 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT 
FOR PORTAGE COUNTY...

AT 902 PM...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH... 
ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF STEVENS POINT 
TO AMHERST TO PLAINFIELD..AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  AMHERST JUNCTION BY 915 PM...
  NELSONVILLE...BLAINE AND AMHERST BY 920 PM...
  PERU BY 935 PM...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 4468 8965 4468 8922 4441 8923 4440 8924
      4439 8923 4425 8923 4425 8951 4444 8953
      4457 8963
TIME...MOT...LOC 0206Z 266DEG 18KT 4454 8942 4439 8934
          4425 8941

$$

ECKBERG

000 
WWUS53 KGRB 200229
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
929 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008

WIC097-200238-
/O.CAN.KGRB.SV.W.0074.000000T0000Z-080720T0245Z/
PORTAGE-
928 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN PORTAGE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTAGE COUNTY UNTIL 10 PM. 

HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 4468 8965 4468 8922 4441 8923 4440 8924
      4439 8923 4425 8923 4425 8951 4444 8953
      4457 8963
TIME...MOT...LOC 0228Z 266DEG 18KT 4455 8927 4440 8919
          4426 8926

$$

ECKBERG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
206 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRES ADVECTED
DRIER BDY LAYER AIR INTO N PART OF FCST AREA TODAY WHILE MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW OFF LM PUSHED MARINE LAYER TO SHORELINE WHICH
RESULTED IN ZERO VSBY FOG FOR A TIME THIS AFTN. MIXING LATE THIS
AFTN APPEARS TO BE ERODING MARINE LAYER...THUS WILL DISCONTINUE DENSE
FOG ADVY FOR SHORELINE AS CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED IN MANY AREAS.
WILL KEEP PATCHY DENSE FOG WORDING FOR EARLY EVENING.

SHORT-TERM FCST MODELS STILL ADVERTISING A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM TO MOV ACRS STATE OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP
IN ERN SD...CLOSE TO 19/12Z NAM FCST. THIS SHOULD SLIDE INTO
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVE AND ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT.

ENUF QUESTIONS ON LOCATION OF RESULTANT BOUNDARIES FROM
CONVECTION SO WL KEEP AT LEAST SMALL CHC SHOWERS/TRW FOR
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF MUCH OF FCST AREA
IS RAIN-FREE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM MOVS IN.

TEMP FCST FOR SHORT-TERM VERY CLOSE TO GFS MOS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NGT THRU NXT FRI. TIMING OF SHORT WAVES IN
DEEPENING TROUGH WHICH PASSES OVER THROUGH MONDAY THE MAIN
CHALLENGE. DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES OF THESE WAVES COMPARED TO
PASS MODELS RUNS...WILL BROAD BRUSH THE PCPN CHCS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY BUT THEIR COULD BE A BREAK BETWEEN THE PIECES OF ENERGY
ROTATING THROUGH.

NAM HANGS ONTO A SURFACE LOW WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE STILL DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WHILE THE REST
OF THE MODELS MORE PROGRESSIVE. NEVERTHELESS UPPER RIDGE WITH
SURFACE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE REGION TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MDM RANGE MODELS IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE EVENT OF ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TRACK OVER THE UPPER PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATER
IN THE WEEK BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES APPROACHING A DAY.

UPPER HEIGHTS INCREASE AGAIN FOR A DRY WEEKEND. IN GLANCING AT
PROGGED H8 TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...IT APPEARS THE HEAT WILL
REMAIN CONFINED WELL TO THE WEST OVER THE WESTERN STATES FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR THIS EVENING AT LARGE AIRPORTS UNTIL AREA OF
CONVECTION MOVES IN LATE...WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS XPCTD WITH CIGS
AND VSBY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

JKL/TDH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
545 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-201045-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
545 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO FORM LATER TONIGHT IN MINNESOTA...AND THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS. THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. WHILE
IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN TO OUR
WEST AND SOUTH...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. DUE TO PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
IN THE AIR...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATE
TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

LMZ521-522-541>543-201045-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
545 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...MAY IMPACT MARINERS THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE WAVES. IN ADDITION TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...AREAS OF MARINE FOG WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD... AS A HUMID AIR MASS FLOWS ACROSS THE
RELATIVELY COOL WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
835 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008

WIZ036-200245-
PORTAGE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...STEVENS POINT
835 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS PORTAGE COUNTY...

AT 828 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTAGE COUNTY. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL
REACH BANCROFT...PLOVER AND STEVENS POINT BY 840 PM...POLONIA
AND ALMOND AROUND 850 PM...AND ROSHOLT AND AMHERST AROUND 855 PM.

THE STORM MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...TORRENTIAL RAINS
THAT WILL CAUSE URBAN STREET FLOODING AND POOR VISIBILITIES ON
AREA ROADWAYS. THE LINE OF STORMS HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING AN
INCH OR INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH
AS THEY PASSED THROUGH WOOD COUNTY.

ECKBERG