Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1204 AM MDT FRI MAY 23 2008

.UPDATE...
814 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2008

MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO FORECAST TO REMOVE WIND HIGHLIGHTS AND FINE
TUNE WATCHES. MORE EXTENSIVE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT
HOUR.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
123 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2008

FORECAST PROBLEMS INTO THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND
STRONG WINDS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...AND BOUTS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SATELLITE SHOWING THAT THE AMPLIFICATION PROCESS
CONTINUES. UPPER LOW NOW HAS NOT ONLY CUT OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN...
BUT HAS ALSO BEGUN TO RETROGRESS. WITH VERY STRONG RIDGE IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND STRONG CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA RIDGE/LARGE
EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER LOW...CONTINUE TO EXPECT VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE UPPER FLOW.

ON THIS PACKAGE WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY NEW HIGHLIGHTS. WILL BE TIED
UP WITH SEVERE WEATHER...AND DO NOT WANT TO BURDEN EVENING CREW
WITH UPDATES. WILL HIT THESE PARAMETERS HARD IN THE GRIDS AND
REGULARLY ISSUED PRODUCTS. WILL LET OVERNIGHT CREW DECIDE ON THE
NEED FOR ANY WIND AND FIRE HIGHLIGHTS.

TONIGHT/FRIDAY...DRY LINE HAS SET UP FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN
DEPICTED 24 HOURS AGO. AHEAD OF THIS...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS VERY
MOIST WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE THIS BRINGING IN ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET SEGMENT TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO EXPECT DIFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. SO EXPECT WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE WEATHER ALMOST A DEFINITE. ANOTHER CONCERN
IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STORMS THAT FORMED YESTERDAY IN COLORADO
TRAINED OVER THE SAME AREA. EVEN THOUGH STORMS WILL BE MOVING
QUICKLY WOULD EXPECT THE SAME TRAINING AFFECT TODAY WITH A MUCH
MORE MOIST AIR MASS. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION HAS MENTIONED OUR
AREA. SO IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL AS WELL.

SIMILAR SETUP FOR FRIDAY...AND ALL THE WEATHER DEPENDS ON THE
POSITION OF THE DRY LINE. OBVIOUSLY GREATER POPS WILL BE TO NORTH
AND EAST OF THIS FEATURE. WILL BE CLOSE TO ABOVE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SOME PLACES AGAIN MAY GET CLOSE TO
HIGH WIND WARNING. WEST OF THE DRY LINE MAY NEED A FIRE HIGHLIGHT AS
WELL. WILL BE GOING NEAR TO BELOW GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...POPS WILL BE ORIENTED FOR THE NIGHT
ACCORDING TO THE BOUNDARY POSITION. WILL PROBABLY BE HIGHER OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF AGAIN. ON SATURDAY...WHEREVER THE DRY LINE IS WILL BE
DETERMINER FOR POPS...AND WILL PUT IN THE APPROPRIATE POPS.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...AGAIN NOT A LOT TIME TO LOOK AT THIS. POPS
CHANCE AND COVERAGE WILL BE DETERMINED BY BOUNDARY POSITION.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...DID NOT SPEND A LOT OF TIME ON THIS
DUE TO CURRENT AND EXPECTED HAZARDOUS WEATHER. SOME KIND OF
BOUNDARY WILL BE IN...NEAR OR MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME. ALSO
PERIODIC PIECES OF THE JET AND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAKE FOR SOME KIND OF CHANCE THROUGH THE WHOLE
PERIOD. USED HPC GRIDS AND TWEAKED THEM AT MOST.

THANKS TO ALL FOR COLLABORATION.

BULLER
&&

.AVIATION...
1157 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2008

FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN WITH ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MVFR...BORDERLINE IFR...AFTER 09Z. BY 16Z...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS STRONG WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF A THUNDERSTORM PASSES DIRECTLY OVER
KGLD OR KMCK. AFTER ABOUT 04Z...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CALM
SUBSTANTIALLY.

BLM
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

WFO GOODLAND

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
137 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2008

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-231600-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
137 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2008 /237 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

...DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...

SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE INSTABILITY WILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LONG TRACKED TORNADOES. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY
DANGEROUS SITUATION AND PEOPLE ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
A JOES TO SELKIRK LINE. STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH...HOWEVER
IF TRAINING OF STORMS OCCURS...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

IN ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...
WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH. AREAS OF BLOWING DIRT MAY ALSO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN COUNTRY.

EXTREME FIRE WEATHER WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE AREA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A FLAGLER COLORADO TO
RUSSEL SPRINGS KANSAS LINE. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH
VERY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY DANGEROUS BURNING
CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINLY
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A RESULT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED.

JRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1035 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 E HILL CITY           39.37N 99.83W
05/22/2008  M2.90 INCH       GRAHAM             KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

JMARTIN