Severe Thunderstorm Warning 180, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
705 PM MDT TUE JUN 17 2008

.DISCUSSION...
229 PM MDT TUE JUN 17 2008

PERSISTENT LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES WITH DAILY SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES
ROTATING OVER THE LEE SIDE...SOME STRONGER...SOME WEAKER. FORECAST
CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP CHANCES AND TIMING
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE WEEK.

THE GLD CWA IS OUTLINED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EVERY DAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE WITH
STRONG SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES AND INCREASED SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...BUILDING SLIGHTLY BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES NORTHWARD. GFS SEEMS TO
BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL IN PUSHING OUT THE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES WHEN COMPARED WITH THE UKMET...NAM...AND ECMWF. SURFACE
WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
TURN FROM THE NORTH AS THE PROGGED PRECIP/MCS PASSES. WINDS INCREASE
AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH FROM LATE FRIDAY ON. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY...OTHERWISE HIGH TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AROUND 90 DEGREES...WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
AS WITH THIS AFTERNOON...FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IF THE EXPECTED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

FOR DAYS 6 THROUGH 7...MODELS SHOW A FLOW PATTERN ROUGHLY SIMILAR TO
THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW. TROUGHS OVER BOTH THE BC REGION/PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEASTERN US AND A RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL US. THE GFS AMPLIFIES THE RIDGE FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF TRIES TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGE
ON SATURDAY...BUT SHIFTS IT EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND BRINGS
IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL US
THROUGH TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT ON THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW...UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SMALL SCALE DIFFERENCES
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE DETAILS WARRANT A 50/50 BLEND BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S...LOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. HPC INTRODUCED ISOLATED AREAS
OF SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN SHOWERS.

BLM
&&

.AVIATION...
705 PM MDT TUE JUN 17 2008

00Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH AND MAY IMPACT KMCK(POSSIBLY KGLD)AFTER 06-08Z.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TRANSIENT IFR IN LOW
CIGS/VISIBILITIES TOWARD SUNRISE WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER 20Z ON WEDNESDAY.

26
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
738 PM MDT TUE JUN 17 2008

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-181300-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
738 PM MDT TUE JUN 17 2008 /838 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH IMPACTING THE TRI-STATE AREA AFTER 11 PM MDT
(MIDNIGHT CDT). THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
EAST OF THE COLORADO STATE LINE WHERE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE GREATEST THREAT. IF THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS...FLOODING WOULD ALSO BECOME
A CONCERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

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