Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
145 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2008

.DISCUSSION...
145 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2008

ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH/MOVE EAST AFTER 06Z WHICH WAS
HANDLED WELL IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STABLE POST-FRONTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI-SAT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY ON SUNDAY AS
WARM FRONT MIXES NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW POPS ON SUNDAY.

DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...AT THE START OF THE PERIOD (MON-TUE)...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE MEANDERING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE POP/TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. WILL LEAN COOLER GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN FRONTAL POSITION
WHILE KEEPING LOW POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE GFS ALLOWS FRONT
TO MIX NORTH ON TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL
REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY WED-THU...DESCENT
AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES KEEPING A SEASONABLY COOL AND UNSETTLED
PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

&&
.AVIATION...
1110 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2008

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
UNTIL 00Z WHEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP. KMCK
AREA SEEMS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOP...WITH POTENTIALLY SEVERE WX IMPACT TAF SITE BTWN 20-02Z.
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS AREA AFTER 06Z...WITH HIGH MOISTURE
VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT MAY SEE SOME LOW STRATUS BUT PROBABILITIES
TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS POINT.

MARTIN
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR KSZ002>004-015-016-029.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR NEZ080-081.

CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1044 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2008

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-301545-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1044 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2008 /1144 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK LIKELY TODAY...

A DRY LINE WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR
MASS EAST OF THE FEATURE WILL BE MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE... AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 1 PM MDT /2 PM CDT/. ALTHOUGH THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE ALONG AND EAST OF
BENKELMAN TO TRIBUNE LINE.

VERY LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY LARGER GOLFBALLS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
ANY AREA EAST OF THE DRYLINE...BUT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A MCCOOK TO LEOTI LINE.

SOME STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...DECATUR...NORTON...
GRAHAM...RAWLINS...HITCHCOCK...GOVE...SHERIDAN AND RED WILLOW.

SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AREA TODAY. AS THE AIR MASS DRIES OVER
EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP
RAPIDLY CREATING CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS. BURNING IS NOT
RECOMMENDED TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE
OF STORMS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THESE STORMS
WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
115 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2008

KSZ001-002-NEZ079-080-291945-
CHEYENNE-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RAWLINS-
215 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR RAWLINS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...CHEYENNE
COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...DUNDY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
HITCHCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

AT 210 PM CDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 8
MILES NORTH OF BIRD CITY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 32 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 34 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 25 AND 58.

JRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
134 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0134 PM     HAIL             STRATTON NE             40.15N 101.23W
05/29/2008  E0.88 INCH       HITCHCOCK          NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

FOLTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
143 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0142 PM     HAIL             10 NW CULBERTSON        40.33N 100.97W
05/29/2008  E0.88 INCH       HITCHCOCK          NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

FOLTZ

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