Red Flag Warning 23, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
755 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2008

.UPDATE...
749 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2008

12Z SOUNDINGS AT KDDC AND KDNR SUGGEST MOISTURE PROFILE A DEEPER
THAN EXPECTED...AND MODIFIED DDC SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT CAPES IN
EXCESS OF 3500 J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE PROFILES AT KDNR
EVEN DEEPER THAN EXPECTED...WHICH CALLS INTO QUESTION HOW MUCH
WESTERN CWA WILL DRY OUT. ADJUSTED POPS/SEVERE WX THREAT
WESTWARD...BUT AM GOING TO HOLD OF MAKING MAJOR CHANGES TO
HEADLINES OR THE REST OF THE FORECAST UNTIL HAVE OPPORTUNITY TO
LOOK AT 12Z DATA.

JRM
&&

.DISCUSSION...INTERESTING SITUATION DEVELOPING TODAY WITH MANY
ITEMS IN PLAY INCLUDING SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITIES...HYDRO
CONCERNS IN THE EAST...AND POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS IN THE
WEST. SOME CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST OFF THE FRONT
RANGE...AND EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING GIVEN LOW
LEVEL JET AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE. WEAK REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURE IN
SOUTHERN YUMA COUNTY PRODUCED SOME BRIEF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
50 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. OTHERWISE...STRATUS REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...BUT LATEST SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ERODING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT THAT TREND TO
CONTINUE. THIS WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY REBOUND INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S AS
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ESPECIALLY WITH HANDLING OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON. DRY LINE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN NAM
WITH EASTERN PUSH. GIVEN RECENT POOR PERFORMANCE OF GFS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PARAMETERS...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE SLOWER NAM. BASED ON
THE NAM...MIXED LAYER CAPES FROM KMCK TO KHLC WILL BE AROUND 2000
J/KG BY 00Z THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE ALSO DECENT IN
THIS AREA. AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...SURFACE
CONVERGENCE WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE SAME AREA. FINALLY...WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG 700 MB SHORTWAVE...
SYNOPTIC SCALE VERTICAL MOTION WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE. SO WILL
MENTION A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS DURING THE DAY
WILL BE STRONG AS CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE. CONSIDERED ISSUING A
WIND ADVISORY...BUT WINDS WILL BE JUST SHORT OF CRITERIA.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MORE
STABLE AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. SO...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY FOR THE NEXT CHANCE OF MOISTURE.
&&

.AVIATION...
521 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2008

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...KGLD WILL REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING BY MID-DAY 20-35 KNOTS. SLIGHTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES MY OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE...BUT WONT LAST LONG. KMCK
WILL REMAIN UNDER MVFR SKIES UNTIL MID MORNING...WHEN THEY WILL
CLEAR OUT. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AN
ISSUE...FOR NOW HAVE INSERTED VCTS AT KMCK.

KJ
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON...AND DEW POINTS WILL PLUMMET BEHIND IT. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE QUESTION IS HOW LOW THE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP FOR A POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNING. AT THIS
POINT...PROJECTED MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 15-20 PERCENT WHICH
IS SHORT OF THE RED FLAG CRITERIA.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...ALTHOUGH STORM MOTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
BE AROUND 35-40 KNOTS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE
HIGH...AROUND 1.25 INCHES FOR KMCK/KHLC. 700 MB THETA/E AXIS WILL
EXTEND FROM KGID TO KEHA. SURFACE LOW IS ALSO IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR FLASH FLOODING. WITH RECENT HYDRO
PROBLEMS OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF AREA...WILL HOIST A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR KSZ002>004-016.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR NEZ080-081.

CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
731 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2008

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-301230-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
731 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2008 /831 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE TODAY...

A DRY LINE WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THE
AIR MASS EAST OF THE FEATURE WILL BE MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE...AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 2 PM MDT /3 PM CDT/. ALTHOUGH THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE ALONG AND
EAST OF TRENTON TO LEOTI LINE.

VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY. TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY AREA EAST OF
THE DRYLINE...BUT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF A MCCOOK TO LYDIA LINE.

SOME STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...DECATUR...NORTON...
GRAHAM...RAWLINS...HITCHCOCK...AND RED WILLOW.

SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AREA TODAY. AS THE AIR MASS DRIES OVER
EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP
RAPIDLY. BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE
OF STORMS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THESE STORMS
WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JRM