River Flood Warning 1, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
152 PM MDT FRI MAY 23 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
1248 PM MDT FRI MAY 23 2008

VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING IMPRESSIVE CLOSED MID/UPPER
LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH KICKED OFF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW MOVING INTO THE
DAKOTAS. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOLTZ
&&

.DISCUSSION...
1248 PM MDT FRI MAY 23 2008

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE LINGERING SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT OVER THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND
CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

STRONG TO SEVERE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION EASTWARD
DURING THE OVER NIGHT HOURS. COMBINATION OF 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM LAST NIGHTS STORMS AND TODAYS SOUTH TO NORTH STORM
MOTION CONDUCIVE TO TRAINING CELLS...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HYDRO
CONCERNS OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. HAVE ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM STRATTON NEBRASKA
TO RUSSEL SPRINGS KANSAS. WILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER HOWEVER BEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE CWA. ACTIVE WEATHER PATTER
WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ANOTHER IN THE LONG SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTS OUT OF THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TIMING AND MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER TOUGH TO PIN DOWN
AT THIS POINT BUT WILL BECOME CLEARER AS MONDAY DRAWS CLOSER.

BY TUESDAY..ECMWF SHOWS THE MID/UPPER LOW RETROGRADING OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WEAK RIDGING TO SET UP.
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN THURSDAY
MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT AT CONVECTION BACK TO THE AREA.

ESSENTIALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED GIVING
ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE CWA.

FOLTZ
&&

.AVIATION...
1113 AM MDT FRI MAY 23 2008

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWESTERN KS AND SOUTHWESTERN NE
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION...INCLUDING KMCK...BY 20Z.
HOWEVER...EXPECTING FURTHER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. EXACT TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS IS THE BIG VARIABLE RIGHT
NOW...BUT UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS...BASED ON OBS UNDER THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.

SFJ
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-
     002-013-014-027-028-041-042.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ002>004-
     014>016-028-029.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079-
     080.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEZ080-081.

CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ253-254.

&&

WFO GOODLAND

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1147 AM MDT FRI MAY 23 2008

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-241215-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1147 AM MDT FRI MAY 23 2008 /1247 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT EAST OF A LINE FROM JOES COLORADO TO LEOTI KANSAS. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE TRANSPORTED ON SOUTHEAST WIND WILL COMBINE WITH
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT FURTHER
INTENSIFIES STORMS. THERE IS PLENTY OF SHEAR SO THAT SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. IN
ADDITION...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTH OVER THE
SAME PATH WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OCCURRED LAST NIGHT.

IN ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE THE REGION TODAY. SOUTH WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

EXTREME FIRE DANGER ALSO EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER KIT CARSON AND
CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH
STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF RELIEF FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON
SUNDAY BEFORE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

FS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
613 PM MDT FRI MAY 23 2008

KSZ001-013-027-240045-
CHEYENNE-SHERMAN-WALLACE-
613 PM MDT FRI MAY 23 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...SHERMAN
COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND WALLACE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS...

AT 612 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES SOUTH OF GOODLAND...AND MOVING NORTH AT
50 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 28.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 27 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 152 AND 192.

FOLTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
620 PM MDT FRI MAY 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0616 PM     TORNADO          7 N QUINTER             39.17N 100.23W
05/23/2008                   SHERIDAN           KS   STORM CHASER

            REPORT RELAYED FROM SPOTTER NETWORK.

&&

SJOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
656 PM MDT FRI MAY 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HEAVY RAIN       NORCATUR                39.83N 100.19W
05/23/2008  M3.06 INCH       DECATUR            KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            RAIN TOTAL FOR TODAY ONLY.

&&

SJOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
759 PM MDT FRI MAY 23 2008

KSZ003-240230-
DECATUR-
859 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR DECATUR COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 855 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF DRESDEN...AND MOVING NORTH
AT 41 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 36 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 71 AND 93.

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
800 PM MDT FRI MAY 23 2008

KSZ002-014-240230-
RAWLINS-THOMAS-
900 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR RAWLINS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND THOMAS
COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 855 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF LEVANT...OR NEAR LEVANT...AND
MOVING NORTH AT 41 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 46 AND 51.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 36 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 37 AND 63.

JRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
803 PM MDT FRI MAY 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0802 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PARK                    39.11N 100.36W
05/23/2008                   GOVE               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER RUNNING OVER HIGHWAY 40 NEAR PARK.

&&

SJOHNSON