Red Flag Warning 22, NWS Goodland, KS

000 
WWUS83 KGLD 250158
RFWGLD

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
758 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2008


COZ253-254-KSZ027-041-250300-
/O.EXP.KGLD.FW.W.0022.000000T0000Z-080525T0200Z/
KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-WALLACE-GREELEY-
758 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING. 

CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE AREA...THEREFORE THE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
233 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
100 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2008

THANKFULLY...MUCH QUIETER WEATHER TODAY OVER THE GLD CWA. PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN
OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION. LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS SPLIT
INTO TWO SEPARATE FEATURES...ONE OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING/SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND THE OTHER OVER THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH TRIGGERED THE SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK OVER THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH DAKOTA.

FOLTZ
&&

.DISCUSSION...
100 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2008

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE TIMING AND LOCATION
OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT BORDERLINE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

APPEARS THE BRIEF RESPITE FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CWA ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY MID-
DAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY IN THE DAY WILL HELP MINIMIZE THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE PULLED INTO THE CWA. THIS SHOULD
ACT TO LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS THE
MAIN CONCERN. THAT SURFACE LOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONS EASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN MISSOURI BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN ITS PLACE OVER EASTERN
COLORADO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. APPEARS BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WILL
OCCUR BRINGING THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA. BOTH
THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE INDICATING IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG ML CAPE
BY 18Z OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH 0-6KM SHEAR AOA 50KTS.
CYCLONICALLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS. WAY TOO SOON TO PINPOINT THE AREA OF GREATEST THREAT
BUT IT DOES BEAR WATCHING. 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED THE WARM FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF KANSAS COUNTIES. MUCH LIKE
THE LAST TWO DAYS...POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL PLAY A CRITICAL
ROLE IN THE LOCATION OF THE GREATEST THREAT.

WITH H85 TEMPS APPROACHING THE MID 20S C ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE CWA WILL SEE WARM TEMPS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. HAVE A PRETTY
TIGHT TEMP NORTHWEST-SOUTHWEST TEMP GRADIENT AS STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST YUMA COUNTY BY AROUND 21Z
MONDAY.

MAJOR CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AS BOTH 00Z AND 12Z GUIDANCE
SHOW H85 TEMPS AROUND 5 C WITH STRONG CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TRIMMED ABOUT 8 DEGREES OFF PRIOR FORECAST AND FEEL IT MAY NOT BE
COOL ENOUGH YET. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE AND ADJUST
ACCORDINGLY.

WEAK RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TEENS C. WILL SEE
H85 TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 20SS BY THURSDAY ALLOWING
SURFACE TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S. LEE TROUGH SET UP
OVER EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW
GIVEN NORMAL VARIABILITY IN MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME FRAME.
WILL SEE TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY WITH
H85 TEMPS CONTINUING IN THE LOW TO MID 20S C. FLOW BECOMES NEARLY
ZONAL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP.

FOLTZ
&&

.AVIATION...
1200 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2008

FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH MCK AND KGLD WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH WIND AT 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 33 MPH WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z.

FS
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

WFO GOODLAND

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
258 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2008

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-251400-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
258 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2008 /358 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM YUMA COLORADO TO STRATTON NEBRASKA. ANY
STORM THAT IS ABLE TO FORM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER
APPEARS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
APPEAR BE THE GREATEST THREAT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FOLTZ