Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
341 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

.DISCUSSION...MANY ISSUES TO DEAL WITH OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR TONIGHT THE CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION/THETA-E ADVECTION REMAINING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ALL OF THE RAIN HAS CAUSED
FLOODING ISSUES IN SEVERAL SPOTS...THOUGH THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL HAS FINALLY BEEN DIMINISHED FOR A TIME IN THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON.

AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...WITH THE DRY LINE ACROSS FAR WESTERN
KANSAS. THERE IS ALSO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS...WHICH HAS BEEN HELPING AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING MUCH OF THE DAY. AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.

FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION/THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO REGENERATE STORMS...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE
MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD INITIALLY BE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS STORMS BEGIN TO FIRE ALONG THE DRY LINE...IT
APPEARS THAT THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS SHOULD PRIMARILY MOVE NORTH
INITIALLY...HOWEVER AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AGAIN INCREASES AND
BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR
STORM ELEMENTS TO BEGIN A MORE EASTERLY PUSH. HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAINS A CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WITH MANY AREAS ALREADY SATURATED OR
FLOODED FROM RAINFALL FROM THE PREVIOUS 24-48 HOURS. 1 TO 3 HOUR
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES IN AREAS CURRENTLY OUTSIDE OF THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ARE GENERALLY 1-1.5 INCHES...SO AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE OPTED TO ADD THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
TONIGHT. WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT...IT APPEARS
THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION WOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST HALF WHERE
INSTABILITY REMAINS THE GREATEST INTO TONIGHT. THE TORNADO THREAT
ALSO REMAINS GREATEST IN THAT REGION WITH 09Z SREF 0-1KM HELICITY
VALUES FORECAST TO BE IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2 AND AND SIG TOR
VALUES OF 2 TO 4. HOWEVER...IF THE BOUNDARY DOES NOT MOVE MUCH
FARTHER NORTH...STORMS WILL TEND TO BE MORE ELEVATED ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA.

WILL TRY TO DECREASE POPS A BIT ON SATURDAY MORNING AS A LARGE
PIECE OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTH. THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET ALSO PUSHES NORTH AND WEAKENS ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE MORNING...SO THAT WOULD ALSO FAVOR A DECREASING POP
TREND. IN THE AFTERNOON...THE DRY LINE IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING
INTO THE CWFA WITH SBCAPE VALUES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA RISING IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WILL PUT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...THOUGH THE BETTER FOCUS
WITH THE H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS IS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CWFA. ONCE ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
EXIT...MUCH OF SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY INTO THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A EASTWARD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LATER IN THE DAY. WILL INCREASE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE BETTER CHANCES NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THE ACTIVE
WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK AND WILL KEEP POPS FOR ALL BUT
DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA...AND IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER
FEW HOURS NEAR THE TERMINAL LOCATION. WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...AND MAY TRY TO DRY IT
OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IN IT GOING DRY IS NOT
VERY HIGH. THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WEST OF
THE AREA ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...AND THEN
EVENTUALLY WORK THEIR WAY EAST. WILL ADD ANOTHER TEMPO GROUP FOR
STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THEN
TRY TO DRY IT OUT AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
254 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
242000-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
254 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

...ANOTHER NIGHT OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINS. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
KEARNEY NEBRASKA TO STOCKTON KANSAS.

THE STRONGER STORMS TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO
TO THREE INCHES. RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL AGGRAVATE AREAS THAT
ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING FLOODING PROBLEMS. WITH SOIL MOISTURE
LEVELS QUITE HIGH OVER MOST OF THE AREA...ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY AFTER 4 PM.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

KISNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
315 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

NEZ060-072-232045-
DAWSON-GOSPER-
315 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR...

  SOUTHWESTERN DAWSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
  NORTH CENTRAL GOSPER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA

AT 311 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES EAST OF STOCKVILLE...OR 28 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LEXINGTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 31 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FARNAM BY 325 PM CDT
  COZAD BY 345 PM CDT

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 210 AND 233.

QUARTER SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN GOSPER AND SOUTHWESTERN DAWSON COUNTIES...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IF THE
STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA. BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER IF SEVERE WEATHER
THREATENS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
327 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             HASTINGS                40.59N 98.39W
05/23/2008  E0.75 INCH       ADAMS              NE   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT AT 26TH AND BLAINE

&&

LEW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
330 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

NEZ062-063-075-076-232100-
ADAMS-CLAY-HALL-HAMILTON-
330 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR...

  NORTHEASTERN ADAMS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HASTINGS.
  NORTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
  SOUTHEASTERN HALL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
  SOUTHWESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA

AT 328 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HASTINGS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TRUMBULL BY 335 PM CDT
  DONIPHAN BY 345 PM CDT
  GILTNER BY 350 PM CDT

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 313 AND 329.

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
341 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HEAVY RAIN       LEXINGTON               40.78N 99.74W
05/23/2008  M3.92 INCH       DAWSON             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2.82 HAS FALLEN SINCE 1230 AM.

&&

KISNER

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