Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1255 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

.AVIATION...06 TAF. MUCH OF TONIGHTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
EAST/SOUTH OF THE KGRI AREA AS THE REGION IS IN THE WAKE OF LARGER
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WHICH PASSED EARLIER. CIGS SHOULD RISE FOR
A SHORT TIME...BUT WILL LOWER AGAIN TO MVFR RANGE AS STRATUS FILLS
IN BY MORNING. THE STRATUS AND STRONG EAST WINDS WILL BE THE
PREVAILING FEATURE FRIDAY...WITH THE MVFR CIGS LIKELY ALL DAY.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY THE FINAL 6 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008/

AVIATION...00Z TAF. NUMBER OF CONCERNS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS WHICH HAVE BEEN PRESENT ALL DAY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS THE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO MOVES VERY LITTLE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL ALSO INCREASE TONIGHT...AS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. STRATUS EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...WITH CEILINGS NEAR/BLOW 5OOFT AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT 2 TO 3 MILES AT TIMES. OVERCAST EXPECTED THOUGH THE DAY...WITH
IMPROVING CEILINGS/VIS IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...WITH A DRY LINE LOCATED FROM WEST CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  A WARM FRONT WAS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN KANSAS...THOUGH THERE WERE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.

THE FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER
EASTERN COLORADO...AND EXPECT MORE DEVELOPMENT INTO WESTERN KANSAS
NEAR THE DRY LINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS COULD ALSO FIRE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH
WOULD THEN MOVE NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT STILL APPEARS GREATEST IN THE SOUTH AND WEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AREA OF EXPECTED GREATEST
INSTABILITY. CURRENT LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG ALREADY IN PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH
LARGER VALUES NEAR 2500-3000 J/KG JUST A COUPLE OF COUNTIES SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. 09Z SREF EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES APPROACH
30-50 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON SO SUPERCELLS LOOK LIKELY. 0-1KM SRH
VALUES ARE ALSO SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES...AND AGREE WITH THE
CURRENT LOCATION OF TORNADO WATCH WHICH COVERS PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT
GETS...SINCE THAT WILL HAVE A BIT IMPACT ON HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST
THE TORNADO THREAT MAY SPREAD. IF THE WARM FRONT DOES NOT MOVE
MUCH...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BECOME LARGE HAIL NORTH AND EAST OF
THE CURRENT TORNADO WATCH...BUT IF IT DOES MOVE NORTH...THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL SPREAD NORTH WITH IT.

THE CHANCE OF STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS ARRIVES AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  ITS HARD TO PIN DOWN THE VARIOUS SUBTLE SURFACE
FEATURES...HOWEVER THE 12Z NAM/WRF SUGGESTS THAT THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD BE FARTHER NORTH...WHILE THE DRYLINE PUSHES EAST...CLOSER TO
THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP RELATIVELY HIGH POPS GOING FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SEVERE WEATHER WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

FLOODING COULD BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN WITH TIME AS AREAS
CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH...SO WILL NOT POST ANY
HYDRO HEADLINES AT THIS POINT...BUT IT MAY BECOME A BIGGER CONCERN
FOR TOMORROW DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN PLACES RECEIVE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TO START ON SATURDAY...THE
UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE A DOMINANT UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE
GULF COAST.  A SERIES OF CLOSED LOWS WITHIN THE TROUGH ARE EITHER
EJECTED OUT OR RETROGRADE DURING THE EXTENDED.  IN GENERAL...A
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS PRETTY MUCH MAINTAINED THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME RIDGING INFLUENCE IN THE
LATTER PERIODS.

AS WAS YESTERDAY...THE FOCUS REMAINS ON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE LONG TERM.  SATURDAY REMAINS UNDER FIRE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN ACROSS OUR CWA.  SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS REMAIN CONDUCIVE AND TARGET OUR CWA OVERALL.  MOISTURE
REMAINS PREVALENT WITH SREF INDICATING DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S...INSTABILITY AXIS NOSES NORTH FROM KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WITH CAPES OF AT LEAST 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...AND HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50KTS...AND RESPECTABLE
SIG TOR PARAMETER ALSO PINPOINTS OUR CWA. THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS
ORIENTED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO OR WESTERN KANSAS DEPENDING ON
THE MODEL WHICH PLACES A BOUNDARY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
WITH THE DRY AIR PUSHING FARTHER EAST AND DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
SFC LOW SETS UP...THE WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE PARAMETERS PROGGED ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER SHOULD UNFOLD WITH HAZARDS INCLUDING EVERYTHING FROM LARGE
HAIL...TO WIND...POTENTIAL TORNADOES AND EVEN HEAVY RAINFALL AND
HYDRO ISSUES GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF AN
INCH AND A HALF TO AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS.

IF THINGS STAY ON TRACK...THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHIFT FARTHER
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN THIS STILL KEEPS OUR SOUTHEAST CWA IN
OR ON THE EDGE OF THE ACTIVITY.  THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO
EXPAND TO THE NORTH AND WEST WHILE THE WESTERN TROUGH RETROGRADES.

BOUNDARIES IN PLACE NEXT WEEK AND SYSTEMS LIFTING OUT KEEP THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THE EXTENDED.  DIDNT DEVIATE MUCH FROM HPC ON DAYS 6 AND 7.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1129 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1122 PM     HAIL             10 E PHILLIPSBURG       39.75N 99.13W
05/22/2008  E1.00 INCH       PHILLIPS           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KISNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1130 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             1 E CAMBRIDGE           40.28N 100.15W
05/22/2008  M1.75 INCH       FURNAS             NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            LASTED FOR 5 MINUTES

0820 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W LOGAN               39.66N 99.60W
05/22/2008  E60.00 MPH       PHILLIPS           KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

0837 PM     HAIL             2 W PRAIRIE VIEW        39.83N 99.61W
05/22/2008  E1.00 INCH       PHILLIPS           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0905 PM     HAIL             5 S ORLEANS             40.06N 99.45W
05/22/2008  E1.00 INCH       HARLAN             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

0908 PM     HAIL             3 E WOODRUFF            39.99N 99.37W
05/22/2008  M1.00 INCH       PHILLIPS           KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

0916 PM     HEAVY RAIN       COZAD                   40.86N 99.99W
05/22/2008  M1.56 INCH       DAWSON             NE   AMATEUR RADIO

            IN PAST 45 MINUTES

0920 PM     HAIL             HUNTLEY                 40.21N 99.29W
05/22/2008  M1.50 INCH       HARLAN             NE   PUBLIC

0923 PM     HAIL             2 N REPUBLICAN CITY     40.13N 99.22W
05/22/2008  E1.75 INCH       HARLAN             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

0925 PM     HAIL             4 W RAGAN               40.31N 99.37W
05/22/2008  E1.00 INCH       HARLAN             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

0928 PM     HAIL             6 W PHILLIPSBURG        39.75N 99.43W
05/22/2008  E1.75 INCH       PHILLIPS           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0933 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S HOLDREGE            40.41N 99.38W
05/22/2008                   PHELPS             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROOF DAMAGE AND PIPE BLOWN AROUND

0935 PM     TORNADO          1 N PALCO               39.27N 99.56W
05/22/2008                   ROOKS              KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            WAS ON THE GROUND FOR 5 MINUTES

0939 PM     HAIL             WEBSTER STATE PARK      39.40N 99.45W
05/22/2008  E0.75 INCH       ROOKS              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0940 PM     HAIL             1 S WILCOX              40.35N 99.17W
05/22/2008  E1.75 INCH       KEARNEY            NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0941 PM     HAIL             WILCOX                  40.36N 99.17W
05/22/2008  M1.75 INCH       KEARNEY            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

0947 PM     HAIL             FUNK                    40.46N 99.25W
05/22/2008  E1.75 INCH       PHELPS             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

0949 PM     HAIL             2 W AXTELL              40.48N 99.17W
05/22/2008  M1.75 INCH       KEARNEY            NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

0955 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     WEBSTER STATE PARK      39.40N 99.45W
05/22/2008                   ROOKS              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

0959 PM     HAIL             MINDEN                  40.50N 98.95W
05/22/2008  E1.75 INCH       KEARNEY            NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ACCOMPANIED WITH 50 TO 55 MPH WINDS.

0959 PM     HAIL             MINDEN                  40.50N 98.95W
05/22/2008  E0.75 INCH       KEARNEY            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

1010 PM     HAIL             1 S KEARNEY             40.69N 99.08W
05/22/2008  E1.00 INCH       BUFFALO            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WITH 45 MPH WINDS

1011 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 E ELM CREEK           40.72N 99.32W
05/22/2008  E60.00 MPH       BUFFALO            NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

1037 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 NW STOCKTON           39.48N 99.32W
05/22/2008                   ROOKS              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1122 PM     HAIL             10 E PHILLIPSBURG       39.75N 99.13W
05/22/2008  E1.00 INCH       PHILLIPS           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KISNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1132 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

KSZ017-230500-
ROOKS-
1132 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR...

  NORTHWESTERN ROOKS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS

AT 1128 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NICODEMUS...OR 14 MILES EAST OF HILL
CITY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 33 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WEBSTER STATE PARK BY 1140 PM CDT

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1134 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

NEZ041-048-049-064-230515-
MERRICK-NANCE-POLK-YORK-
1134 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR...

  NORTHEASTERN MERRICK COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA
  NORTHEASTERN NANCE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA
  POLK COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA
  NORTHEASTERN YORK COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA

AT 1133 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WOLBACH TO FULLERTON
TO BRADSHAW...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  BENEDICT BY 1145 PM CDT
  STROMSBURG BY 1150 PM CDT
  THAYER BY 1155 PM CDT
  SHELBY BY 1205 AM CDT

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

AWJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1247 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

KSZ007-NEZ085-086-230615-
JEWELL-NUCKOLLS-WEBSTER-
1247 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR...

  JEWELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
  SOUTHWESTERN NUCKOLLS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
  SOUTHEASTERN WEBSTER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA

AT 1243 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GUIDE ROCK TO ESBON
TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF IONIA...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MANKATO BY 100 AM CDT
  WEBBER BY 110 AM CDT

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.