Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
302 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2008

.SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING FILLED WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIP
CHANCES LOOKS TO BE ON THE TABLE AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...IS SHOWN TO SLIDE SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A WEAK CLIPPER
WAVE ALREADY PUSHING INTO THE REGION...WILL INTERACT WITH ML CAPES
OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG TO PRODUCE SOME DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA.  EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL AT THIS POINT WITH
VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KTS SHOWN ACROSS THE AREA BUT IS SHOWN TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 35 TO 45 KNOTS THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR DECENT CELL ORGANIZATION AND POTENTIAL ROTATION.  BASED ON THIS
SETUP...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SEVERE IN HWO BUT INCREASED HAIL
SIZE POTENTIAL TO GOLFBALLS.  SOUNDINGS ALSO APPEAR TO HAVE A SLIGHT
INVERTED V PROFILE AND STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS AS
WELL. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO FADE AFTER
SUNSET WITH LITTLE TO NO THREAT FOR CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

AS THE AREA HEADS INTO SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE TROUGH
IS SHOWN TO PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS WHILE A WEAK SURFACE LOW
SPINS UP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS.  YET ANOTHER
WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM IS SHOWN TO INTERACT WITH THIS BOUNDARY BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOWN TO BE IN EXCESS OF 40 KNTS AND ML CAPES
OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG SHOWN...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY.
TEMPERATURE WISE...THE BOUNDARY LOCATION WILL DETERMINE TEMPERATURES
TO A LARGE DEGREE BUT BASED OFF THE EXPECTED LOCATION WILL AIM FOR
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED...AND AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...THE MAIN
FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORMS.  ON MONDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
ORIENTED ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS.  A PROGRESSION OF DECENT WAVES DAMPEN THE RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE ROCKIES AND TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.  CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AND
PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT AS THE LOWLEVEL JET INCREASES TO AROUND
40KTS OVER THE BOUNDARY.

TUESDAY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH WAVE
TIMING MONDAY NIGHT.  CONVECTION COULD LINGER DURING THE DAY OR
POTENTIALLY REDEVELOP ON LINGERING BOUNDARIES.  TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD OR SHALL WE SAY MAY BE A BREAK BETWEEN CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION AS THE SURFACE RIDGES SETTLES IN.

TSTM CHCS RETURN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE AND YOU JUST
CANNOT RULE OUT A CHANCE FOR PCPN.

IF CONVECTION CAN FIRE THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z KGRI TAF. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE GRAND ISLAND TERMINAL
ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO IMPACT
THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. EXPECT CLOUD
CEILINGS TO BE ABOVE 6 KFT WITH THESE STORMS BUT THE TERMINAL MAY
SEE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3 TO 5 MILES.
OTHERWISE...THE LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING LOOK QUIET FOR THE TERMINAL.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
238 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2008

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
221200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
238 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM
THE STORMS WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND DAMAGING
WINDS OF 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
348 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2008

NEZ041-048-049-212130-
MERRICK-NANCE-POLK-
348 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR...

  NORTHEASTERN MERRICK COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA
  EASTERN NANCE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA
  POLK COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA

AT 346 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ST. EDWARD...OR 27 MILES WEST OF COLUMBUS...
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 29 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GENOA BY 405 PM CDT
  SILVER CREEK BY 425 PM CDT
  OSCEOLA BY 430 PM CDT

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. GUSTY WINDS
TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
350 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2008

NEZ060-212115-
DAWSON-
350 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR...

  NORTHEASTERN DAWSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA

AT 346 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES WEST OF OCONTO...OR 25 MILES NORTH OF
LEXINGTON...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 37 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  EDDYVILLE BY 410 PM CDT
  SUMNER BY 415 PM CDT

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

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