Severe Thunderstorm Warning 256, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
320 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

.SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

PAST MORNING UPPER AIR DATA ALONG WITH RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS A SMALL BUT POTENT WAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS.  A VERY DIFFUSE SURFACE TROUGH IS SEEN STRETCHING FROM
CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND EVENTUALLY EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO. HOWEVER...MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH ALONG WITH ML CAPES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ARE INTERACTING WITH
THE UPPER WAVE TO PRODUCE POCKETS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH WEAK CAPPING IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...APPEARS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID EVENING BEFORE INHIBITION
INCREASES ENOUGH TO KILL OFF CONVECTIVE THREAT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK WITH VALUES OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AT BEST ACROSS THE CWA
AND IS SHOWN TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 25 TO 35 KNOTS DURING
THE EARLY EVENING.  UP TO THIS POINT THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CWA HAS BEEN
VERY PULSE LIKE BUT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AND THE BULK SHEAR INCREASES...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
POSSIBLE.  THE UPPER WAVE THEN SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LOOKING DRY WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ANTICIPATED.

VERY LITTLE CHANGES WITH THE PATTERN ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE A BROAD
TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  THIS WILL LEAVE THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
WITH YET ANOTHER SMALL BUT POTENT SHORT WAVE SHOWN TO PLOW INTO THE
REGION BY MID AFTERNOON TO EVENING.  ANOTHER DIFFUSE BOUNDARY IS
SHOWN TO BE ACROSS THE AREA BUT SMALLER MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL
LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  WITH ML CAPES
AROUND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SHOWN TO BE AROUND
30 TO 35 KNOTS...A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

.LONG TERM...12 SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...AS DISTURBANCES WORK THEIR WAY THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS...PINNING DOWN EXACT
DETAILS WITH TIMING/LOCATIONS OF THESE WAVES WITH THIS PATTERN IS
DIFFICULT FURTHER OUT IN TIME...LEADING TO BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN REGARD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

STILL EXPECTING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND TO REMAIN DRY...WITH
THE CWA STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES.  PIECES OF ENERGY CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...AND AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A
TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE UPSLOPE FLOW.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THEY MOVE INTO THE CWA...SO
LEFT MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...PIECES OF
ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA REALLY START TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE...BRINGING MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL FLOW TO THE REGION. MODELS SHOW A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE PLAINS MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH
LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE CWA. UPPED
POPS A BIT...MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT MONDAY/INTO TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY BECAUSE THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MODELS IN THE STRENGTH/LOCATION OF THE BEST FORCING. THIS
PIECE OF ENERGY ALSO BRINGS A SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE
REGION...PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR PRECIP. AGAIN SOME
DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN MODELS AS TO JUST HOW FAR THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS PUSHED BEFORE STALLING OUT. THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO
BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS IT PASSES
THROUGH...AND KEPT CHANCES IN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...EVEN WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEING BROKEN DOWN SOMEWHAT...TEMPERATURES DON/T
LOOK TO BE IMPACTED MUCH.  HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE
80S.

INTO THE MID/END WEEK TIMEFRAME...CHANCES FOR PRECIP CONTINUE.  KEPT
WEDNESDAY DRY BEHIND THE MON/TUES SYSTEM...BUT ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES
CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION AND WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING
SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE CWA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL ALLOW THE
RIDGE TO REAMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES...MOVING WARMER AIR CLOSER TO
THE CWA. HAVE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THUR/FRI...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SNEAK INTO THE TERMINAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE OF STORMS LOOKS FAIRLY LOW BUT HAVE OPTED TO INSERT A
CHANCE FOR STORMS. OTHERWISE...SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
BE THE ONLY WEATHER ITEM OF INTEREST FROM THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
302 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
211200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
302 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING.  ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

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