Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1206 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

.AVIATION...06Z TAF. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NE LOOKS TO
IMPACT THE GRI TERMINAL SOON. ONCE THIS MOVES PAST QUIET
CONDITIONS RETURN INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE CWA. TERMINAL LOOKS TO
BE AFFECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2008/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL
BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH OTHER BOUNDARIES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA
FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. CURRENT RADAR INDICATES THAT SOME
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP ALONG THESE
BOUNDARIES. MUCAPES ARE 3000 TO 4500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR OVER 60 KTS
SHOULD ALLOW ABOUT ANY THUNDERSTORM TO TAKE OFF RAPIDLY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE CAPE AND SHEAR SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THAT THE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND
AN UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE A SQUALL LINE WILL
DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL GIVE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALTHOUGH EVERYONE HAS A CHANCE OF SEVERE.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  FRIDAY SHOULD IN THEORY BE A
DRY DAY AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION.  ANOTHER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES.  THIS PUSHES A BOUNDARY IN FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY
SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS TIME FRAME.  THE FRONT LIFTS BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTH ON MONDAY...WITH PCPN CHCS CONTINUING...THEN THE FORECAST
DRIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE BOUNDARY PROGGED TO
OUR NORTH.  DIDNT DEVIATE FROM THE HPC FORECAST ON DAYS 6 AND 7 AS
MODELS DIVERGE IN HANDLING OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH.  OVERALL THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITION WILL BE THE KEY IN WHETHER OR NOT
CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
302 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2008

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
051200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
302 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2008

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS...DAMAGING WINDS OF 70 MPH...AND TORNADOES
ALL POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY COMBINE WITH
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TO CREATE FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA...THE HIGHEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. HAIL UP TO BASEBALL
SIZE...STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES...AND HEAVY RAIN WILL ALL
BE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE EVENING
TONIGHT. SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL ALSO BE LIKELY NEEDED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

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