Areal Flood Warning 21, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
259 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND MORE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.

AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE SURFACE LOW THERE ARE SEVERAL BOUNDARIES
RELATED TO THE LOW AND WITH CONVECTION LAST NIGHT THERE ARE MOST
LIKELY SEVERAL BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THAT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO A LINE AND MOVE THROUGH WITH
A WIND THREAT POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WILL
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY
WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER
UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008/

.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. PLENTY OF CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...WITH
THE FOREMOST ONE BEING THE GOOD POSSIBILITY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TIMING
OF THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS STILL A BIT UNCLEAR...BUT IT APPEARS
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PULL EAST OUT OF THE KGRI AREA BY MID
EVENING. OUTSIDE ANY THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER
BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS
LIKELY. WINDS WILL LIKELY SLACKEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE PICKING BACK UP AGAIN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SWINGS BY TO THE NORTHEAST.
CEILINGS WILL BEAR WATCHING LATER TONIGHT AFTER PRECIPITATION
ENDS...BUT HAVE KEPT THINGS VFR FOR NOW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>064-072>077-082>087.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ049-063-064-
     075>077-084>087.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
100 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
061200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
100 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR NEARLY ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN
OUTBREAK OF DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...LARGE HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF BASEBALLS...AND SOME TORNADOES ARE LIKELY. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG...AND LONGER TRACK TORNADOES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND EVOLVE QUICKLY...
WITH STORM MOTIONS TO THE NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH OR MORE.

IT APPEARS THIS SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AS HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT AMOUNT
OF TIME IS POSSIBLE OVER ALREADY SATURATED SOIL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
AREA.  SEE THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD WATCH STATEMENT FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

FINALLY...A WIND ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM OSCEOLA NEBRASKA TO PHILLIPSBURG KANSAS.  SEE
THE LATEST WIND ADVISORY PRODUCT FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE OUTLOOK AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER ON
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEED THROUGH THIS EVENING. SPOTTERS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...AND THE
NEED FOR RAPID DEPLOYMENT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

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