Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Hastings, NE

000 
WGUS73 KGID 300152
FFSGID

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
850 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

KSC141-183-300545-
/O.CON.KGID.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-080530T0545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SMITH KS-OSBORNE KS-
850 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 AM CDT FOR
NORTHERN OSBORNE AND SMITH COUNTIES...

AT 848 PM CDT...RADAR ESTIMATES HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES HAVE 
FALLEN IN NORTHERN OSBORNE AND SMITH COUNTIES.  THIS HEAVY RAINFALL 
ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL CAUSE AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.  

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3956 9904 3957 9906 4000 9906 4000 9850
      3942 9850 3938 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0150Z 248DEG 39KT 4015 9731

$$

000 
WGUS73 KGID 300542
FFSGID

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1242 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

KSC141-183-300552-
/O.EXP.KGID.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-080530T0545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SMITH KS-OSBORNE KS-
1242 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1245 AM CDT FOR NORTHERN
OSBORNE AND SMITH COUNTIES...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED...AND THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING HAS
DIMINISHED.

LAT...LON 3956 9904 3957 9906 4000 9906 4000 9850
      3942 9850 3938 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0542Z 248DEG 39KT 4106 9423

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
634 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

.AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AREA
TO KICK OFF THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE
FORECAST THIS EVENING. COULD BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES IN
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY IMPROVE BY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS STORMS PUSH OFF TO THE EAST...AND BY
FRIDAY...CEILINGS SHOULD SCATTER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008/

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT.  OBVIOUSLY THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
TONIGHT IS THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING.  AFTERNOON
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH A SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO.  A DRY LINE WAS
STRETCHING OUT OF THE LOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS...WHILE A WEAK TROUGH
WAS NOTED INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.  IT APPEARS THE MAIN PROBLEM
INITIALLY WILL BE CONVECTION FIRING NEAR/ALONG THE DRYLINE AND THE
SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH...AND THEN HAVING IT MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WHILE 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES REACH
150-200 M2/S2 OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE SIG TOR PARAMETER
FROM THE 09Z SREF BLANKETS MOST OF THE CWA WITH VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 2...AND ARE HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SUFFICE IT TO SAY...THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES IS STILL ALL THERE.

HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO REMAINS AN ISSUE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.  EVEN THOUGH
THE STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY RAPID MOVERS...THE CONCERN FOR
FLOODING REMAINS WITH AREA SOILS STILL VERY WET OR SATURATED. IT
APPEARS SOME AREAS COULD GET A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WITH
THE INITIAL ROUND COMING FROM THE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
DRYLINE...AND THEN MORE STORMS COMING AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BEHIND
THE DRYLINE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION.  THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
STILL APPEARS REASONABLE AND WILL LEAVE IT IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT.

A LESSER CONCERN FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL
BE WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE FAR SOUTH.  RUC BUFR
SOUNDINGS NEAR KRSL AND KHYS SHOWS STRONG ENOUGH WINDS COULD GET
MIXED DOWN FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO PUSH
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS. FOR NOW...WILL NOT GO WITH THE ADVISORY
SINCE IT GENERALLY APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
OBSERVATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...12Z FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL
BE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF AND ON THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SURFACE FRONT MOSTLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
EXPECT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE GONE BY MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE
HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THROUGH THIS TIME...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE JUST ABOVE
AVERAGE.

STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
COME ACROSS THE RIDGE. AS THESE WAVES MOVE THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGS A
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT SAG TO THE SOUTH
AND BRING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

THERE IS A BRIEF BREAK ON TUESDAY...BUT THAT IS SHORT LIVED AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. WITH IT IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THERE WOULD NOT BE AS GOOD OF A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. DUE TO THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE
MODELS...WILL HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THIS UPPER LOW AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

HEINLEIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
240 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
301200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
240 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE OUTLOOK AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING. WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS...AND DAMAGING
WINDS OF 70 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS
WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. THE STORMS WILL DEPART THE OUTLOOK
AREA TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
611 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             4 N WOOD RIVER          40.88N 98.60W
05/29/2008  E1.75 INCH       HALL               NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

0602 PM     HAIL             6 W WOOD RIVER          40.82N 98.71W
05/29/2008  E1.00 INCH       HALL               NE   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JCB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
619 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N DAMAR               39.39N 99.58W
05/29/2008                   ROOKS              KS   STORM CHASER

            2-3 INCH TREE LIMBS DOWN

&&

NWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
623 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     TORNADO          8 S CAIRO               40.89N 98.61W
05/29/2008                   HALL               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HUSKER HWY AND HWY 11

&&

JCB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
630 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     TSTM WND GST     WOOD RIVER              40.82N 98.60W
05/29/2008  E80 MPH          HALL               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JCB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
631 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             7 E GLADE               39.68N 99.18W
05/29/2008  E1.00 INCH       PHILLIPS           KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

NWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
635 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0631 PM     HAIL             7 N STOCKTON            39.54N 99.27W
05/29/2008  E2.75 INCH       ROOKS              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            COVERING GROUND

&&

JCB