Alert archive / Kansas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2008

Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Hastings, NE

May 29, 2008Phillips County, Rooks County, Kansas

NWS Hastings, NE issued this flash flood warning at May 29, 2008, 6:04 PM CDT for Phillips County, Rooks County, Kansas. It was in force for 6 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 29, 2008, 6:04 PM CDT (23:04 UTC)
Expired: May 30, 2008, 12:00 AM CDT
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: NWS Hastings, NE
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

Counties Phillips County, KS, Rooks County, KS

The radar

The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 105 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE (KLBF), launched 12:00Z, 11.1 hours before the alert went out and 200 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 791 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -191 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 751 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 53 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 181 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 135 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS53 KGID 292306 RRA
FFWGID
KSC147-163-300500-
/O.NEW.KGID.FF.W.0016.080529T2304Z-080530T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
604 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  PHILLIPS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PHILLIPSBURG.
  NORTHERN ROOKS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT

* AT 556 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  HEAVY RAIN FROM A THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE WARNED AREA. THIS 
  STORM IS PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES IN ONE HOUR. 
  RAPID RISES IN STREAMS...CREEKS...AND RIVERS ARE EXPECTED AND COULD 
  PRODUCE FLOODING VERY QUICKLY. ROADS MAY BE FLOODED VERY QUICKLY AS 
  WELL. 

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SPEED...
  LOGAN...KIRWIN...GLADE AND AGRA

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3982 9962 3998 9907 3957 9906 3956 9904
      3943 9904 3927 9960
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 180DEG 0KT 3948 9958

$$

HEINLEIN

2 follow-up statements

000 
WGUS73 KGID 300146
FFSGID

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
844 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

KSC147-163-300500-
/O.CON.KGID.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-080530T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PHILLIPS KS-ROOKS KS-
844 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR
NORTHERN ROOKS AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES...

AT 839 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES 
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES HAVE FALLEN ACROSS NORTHERN ROOKS 
AND SOUTHERN PHILLIPS COUNTIES.  THIS HEAVY RAINFALL ON ALREADY 
SATURATED GROUND WILL CAUSE AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
SPEED...PRAIRIE VIEW...PHILLIPSBURG...LOGAN...KIRWIN...GLADE AND 
AGRA.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3982 9962 3998 9907 3957 9906 3956 9904
      3943 9904 3927 9960
TIME...MOT...LOC 0144Z 180DEG 0KT 3948 9958

$$

000 
WGUS73 KGID 300456
FFSGID

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1156 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

KSC147-163-300506-
/O.EXP.KGID.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-080530T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PHILLIPS KS-ROOKS KS-
1156 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT CDT FOR NORTHERN
ROOKS AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED...AND FLASH FLOODING IS NO LONGER 
EXPECTED.

LAT...LON 3982 9962 3998 9907 3957 9906 3956 9904
      3943 9904 3927 9960
TIME...MOT...LOC 0456Z 180DEG 0KT 3948 9958

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at May 29, 2:26 PM CDT, 3 hours 38 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 29, 2:26 PM CDT, 3 hours 38 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
226 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT.  OBVIOUSLY THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
TONIGHT IS THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING.  AFTERNOON
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH A SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO.  A DRY LINE WAS
STRETCHING OUT OF THE LOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS...WHILE A WEAK TROUGH
WAS NOTED INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.  IT APPEARS THE MAIN PROBLEM
INITIALLY WILL BE CONVECTION FIRING NEAR/ALONG THE DRYLINE AND THE
SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH...AND THEN HAVING IT MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WHILE 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES REACH
150-200 M2/S2 OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE SIG TOR PARAMETER
FROM THE 09Z SREF BLANKETS MOST OF THE CWA WITH VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 2...AND ARE HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SUFFICE IT TO SAY...THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES IS STILL ALL THERE.

HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO REMAINS AN ISSUE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.  EVEN THOUGH
THE STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY RAPID MOVERS...THE CONCERN FOR
FLOODING REMAINS WITH AREA SOILS STILL VERY WET OR SATURATED. IT
APPEARS SOME AREAS COULD GET A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WITH
THE INITIAL ROUND COMING FROM THE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
DRYLINE...AND THEN MORE STORMS COMING AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BEHIND
THE DRYLINE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION.  THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
STILL APPEARS REASONABLE AND WILL LEAVE IT IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT.

A LESSER CONCERN FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL
BE WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE FAR SOUTH.  RUC BUFR
SOUNDINGS NEAR KRSL AND KHYS SHOWS STRONG ENOUGH WINDS COULD GET
MIXED DOWN FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO PUSH
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS. FOR NOW...WILL NOT GO WITH THE ADVISORY
SINCE IT GENERALLY APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
OBSERVATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...12Z FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL
BE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF AND ON THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SURFACE FRONT MOSTLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
EXPECT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE GONE BY MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE
HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THROUGH THIS TIME...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE JUST ABOVE
AVERAGE.

STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
COME ACROSS THE RIDGE. AS THESE WAVES MOVE THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGS A
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT SAG TO THE SOUTH
AND BRING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

THERE IS A BRIEF BREAK ON TUESDAY...BUT THAT IS SHORT LIVED AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. WITH IT IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THERE WOULD NOT BE AS GOOD OF A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. DUE TO THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE
MODELS...WILL HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THIS UPPER LOW AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

Hazardous weather outlook, May 29, 2:40 PM CDT, 3 hours 24 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
240 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
301200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
240 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE OUTLOOK AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING. WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS...AND DAMAGING
WINDS OF 70 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS
WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. THE STORMS WILL DEPART THE OUTLOOK
AREA TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 29, 5:37 PM CDT, 27 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
537 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     ELM CREEK               40.72N 99.38W
05/29/2008                   BUFFALO            NE   STORM CHASER

            STRONG ROTATION

&&

JCB

Local storm report, May 29, 5:39 PM CDT, 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
539 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0536 PM     TORNADO          5 SW KEARNEY            40.65N 99.15W
05/29/2008                   KEARNEY            NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
            20TH AND VICTOR ROAD BY THE NEBRASKA STATE PATROL.

&&

HEINLEIN

Local storm report, May 29, 5:40 PM CDT, 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
540 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TORNADO          3 N KEARNEY             40.74N 99.08W
05/29/2008                   BUFFALO            NE   STORM CHASER

            POWER LINES DOWN

&&

JCB

Local storm report, May 29, 5:48 PM CDT, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
548 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0541 PM     TORNADO          7 SW OVERTON            40.67N 99.63W
05/29/2008                   PHELPS             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JCB

Local storm report, May 29, 5:55 PM CDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
555 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             10 N DAMAR              39.46N 99.58W
05/29/2008  E1.00 INCH       ROOKS              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED

&&

NWS

Local storm report, May 29, 5:56 PM CDT, 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
556 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 PM     HAIL             10 N DAMAR              39.46N 99.58W
05/29/2008  E1.00 INCH       ROOKS              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JCB

The office that day

Everything else NWS Hastings, NE issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 29, 3:54 AM CDT	Flash Flood Watch	GID	Jewell, Mitchell, Osborne, Phillips, Rooks, Smith	24 hr
May 29, 5:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GID	Phillips, Rooks, Smith	44 min
May 29, 5:54 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	GID	Osborne, Phillips, Rooks, Smith	51 min
May 29, 6:06 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	GID	Phillips, Rooks	6 hr
May 29, 6:44 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	GID	Jewell, Mitchell, Osborne, Smith	46 min
May 29, 6:47 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	GID	Osborne, Smith	6 hr
May 29, 6:47 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	GID	Phillips, Rooks	43 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Kansas, 2008 Every flash flood warning in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.