Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Glasgow, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
221 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2008

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WILL
CLOSE OFF TONIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO SASKATCHEWAN. UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL SWEEP OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING AND MOVE INTO NORTH DAKOTA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EASTERN ZONES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY UNSTABLE THIS
EVENING AND TO A LESSER DEGREE AFTER MIDNIGHT. EARLY EVENING GFS
SURFACED BASED CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG AND LIFTED
INDEX...ALONG DEVELOPING OMEGA OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES
COULD ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR CONTINUING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ZONES THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HAS HAD SOMEWHAT OF A STABILIZING AFFECT. MOST SEVERE
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS BY EARLY EVENING.

AS THE SASKATCHEWAN SHORTWAVE STACKS UP OVER THE CLOSED SURFACE
LOW...BECOMING CYCLONIC...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN
INCREASING WIND STRENGTH FRIDAY. WILL POSSIBLY NEED A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY BEGINNING SOMETIME FRIDAY MORNING...CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. LOW CENTER DIVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR OUR NE ZONES FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS SATURDAY WILL IMPROVES AS AS SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
INTO THE LOCAL REGION SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE GAINS STRENGTH
OVER THE WEST. SCT

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE REGION TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS IN
GOOD SHAPE. ONLY EDITS WERE FOR BORDER COORDINATION. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
BRING HOT AND DRY WEATHER INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY APPEAR TO BE THE HOTTEST DAYS AT THIS TIME WITH 90S FOR
HIGHS IN MANY AREAS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING AN SHORTWAVE THROUGH MONTANA ON
WEDNESDAY. THE WAVE IS FORECASTED TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND
DROP A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GFS IS STRONGER
WITH THE FRONT THAN THE ECMWF BUT THE ECMWF IS WETTER THAT THE GFS
WITH THE PRECIP. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS STARTING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CARRY IT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR NOW.
FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
THERE EXISTS POTENTIAL FOR ANY TAF SITE TO EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ANY TIME THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD BRING A PERIOD OF
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC WIND DUE TO OUTFLOW.
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY KSDY AND KGDV TAF SITES REMAINING IN THE AREA
OF SCATTERED STORMS. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS
WILL INCREASE TO 15-20KT LATE FRIDAY MORNING...GUSTING TO 25-35KT.
STRONGEST WIND WILL BE AT EASTERN TAF SITES. RAIN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT EASTERN TAF SITES.
SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
347 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2008

MTZ016-017-021-022-059>061-271000-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-
NORTHERN VALLEY-
347 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TODAY AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. WHILE THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ018>020-023>027-062-271000-
DANIELS-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-MCCONE-RICHLAND-DAWSON-PRAIRIE-
WIBAUX-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
347 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY TO
TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING AS STORMS EXIT INTO
THE DAKOTAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
156 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 AM     HAIL             7 S BAINVILLE           48.04N 104.22W
06/26/2008  E1.75 INCH       ROOSEVELT          MT   PUBLIC

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
215 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     HAIL             9 SSE WIBAUX            46.86N 104.12W
06/26/2008  E0.75 INCH       WIBAUX             MT   PUBLIC

&&

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