Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1221 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

.UPDATE...

NEW SUITE OF PRODUCTS COMING TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH WEST OF
I-35.  ALSO UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS.

91/DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY DIFFICULT PATTERN TO ASSESS...BUT WE/LL MAINTAIN MVFR/LOCALIZED
IFR THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH VCTS/TSRA WORDING GOING IN EFFECT
BY 20Z/AFTER...AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM UPR TROUGH IS NOW BEGINNING
TO OUR WEST...WITH WARM FNT NOW MAKING IT/S WAY INTO AREAS JUST SW OF
N TX TAF SITES. WILL ALSO GRADUALLY VEER WINDS TO SLY BY THIS EVENING...
THEN SWLY BY TUES MORNING...AS PACIFIC FNT OVERRUNS DRYLINE AND START
PUSHING INTO N TX BY 12Z TUES. ALSO...XPCT MAINLY VFR CONDS BY 09Z OVER
MOST TAF SITES...AS LOW LVL AIRMASS AND BEST LIFT PUSH TO THE EAST OF
THE REGION.

05/

&&

.UPDATE...

ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST THIS MORNING BASED
ON LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS. AREA OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT
CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA WHERE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AGAIN FARTHER SOUTH. HAVE LOWERED THE POPS A
BIT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND KEPT THIS AFTERNOON
UNTOUCHED.

STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
UNFOLDS BUT POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
EPISODE THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST PALESTINE PROFILER AND NAM/RUC
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOW EXTREME
0-3KM SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES WITH LARGE CURVED HODOGRAPHS. MODEL
GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH RESPECT TO INSTABILITY...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO FOLLOW THE MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
A SURGING WARM FRONT SHOULD PUT AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY AROUND 500J/KG. GIVEN THE EXTREME
SHEAR...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WITH A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TORNADO
THREAT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST MESOSCALE TRENDS...

91/DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST MON NOV 10 2008/
AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS UNFOLDING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUES A STEADY MARCH THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION INTO THE PLAINS. INTENSE ISENTROPIC LIFT EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS PARCELS FORCED UP AND OVER THE LINGERING
COOL AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE REACH THEIR LFC AND CONVECT WITHIN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR/INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
ISOLATED ELEVATED SEVERE SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY WANE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/AND COLD LAYER MODIFIES...EFFECTIVELY ENDING
ISENTROPIC LIFTING MECHANISM. HOWEVER...REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF DYNAMIC/QG FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE TO THE
WEST...WITH DRYLINE LIKELY BECOMING THE PLAYER THIS AFTERNOON.
NAM/GFS FORECASTS SHOW INCREASING LIFT AS A MID LEVEL VORTICITY
LOBE ROUNDS THE UPPER LOW THIS EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO
SURGE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES TODAY...AND SEVERAL MODELS ARE INDICATING A
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING.

ENVIRONMENT HAS ALL THE CLASSIC COOL-SEASON SIGNATURES FOR AN
OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER. AND JUST LIKE TRYING TO FORECAST ANY
COOL-SEASON EVENT...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE THE
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR OR QUESTIONABLE INGREDIENT. MODELS
FORECAST A WARM FRONT TO SHARPEN/ORGANIZE TODAY...WITH BOTH THE
RUC/NAM FORECASTS INDICATING THAT IT WILL ENTER THE SW ZONES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND MAKE GRADUAL PROGRESS NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA TONIGHT. NAM/GFS AND SREF PROBABILITIES DEPICT MODEST
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OF 500 J/KG MOVING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES FEATURE
0-3KM SRH FROM 300-500 M2/S2 WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY...MESOSCALE/STORM SCALE INTERACTIONS WILL DETERMINE
WHETHER TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BECOME REALIZED. THE BOTTOM
LINE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TORNADOES TODAY...ESPECIALLY AREAS
SOUTH OF A PALESTINE TO CLEBURNE TO BRECKENRIDGE LINE. CANT RULE
OUT ISOLATED TORNADOES NORTH OF THIS LINE THIS EVENING...BUT IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT MAKES IT.

TONIGHTS ROUND OF STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF
ON THE PUSH OF DRY/STABLE AIR INTO THE REGION TUESDAY...AND HAVE
MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA UNTIL
UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NW
ZONES. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH WITH THE POPS IN THE MIDWEEK TIME
FRAME...BUT BEST TO HEDGE THE FORECAST WITH THE MOISTURE NOT
GETTING SCOURED OUT AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUING TO MOVE
OVER THE REGION.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...BUT HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SEND MUCH COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE COLD AIR WILL HEAD
EASTWARD...BUT A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FOR NORTH TEXAS.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  62  77  54  68  54 /  70  20  20  20  10
WACO, TX              66  81  57  73  54 /  70  50  30  20  20
PARIS, TX             56  70  53  66  47 /  90  40  20  20  10
DENTON, TX            59  78  48  67  51 /  70  20  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          60  75  50  67  51 /  80  30  20  20  10
DALLAS, TX            62  77  55  68  54 /  80  30  20  20  10
TERRELL, TX           62  76  57  68  53 /  90  50  30  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         64  77  61  71  54 /  90  60  40  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            66  81  57  74  54 /  70  50  30  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1229 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

TXZ129-101900-
EASTLAND TX-
1229 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTLAND COUNTY

AT 1229 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RISING STAR...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

A SECOND INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED IN CALLAHAN COUNTY
NEAR ADMIRAL...ALSO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
CARBON...CISCO...EASTLAND...GORMAN...RANGER AND RISING STAR.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST MONDAY EVENING FOR
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3253 9911 3252 9909 3252 9896 3251 9896
      3251 9861 3220 9867 3209 9893 3208 9912
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 232DEG 25KT 3203 9904

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1247 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

TXZ141-101915-
COMANCHE TX-
1247 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE COUNTY

AT 1247 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RISING STAR...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE DE LEON.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN COMANCHE AND SOUTHERN EASTLAND COUNTIES.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST MONDAY EVENING FOR
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3208 9893 3226 9855 3212 9846 3194 9883
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 247DEG 26KT 3207 9890

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
120 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

TXZ129-101945-
EASTLAND TX-
120 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTLAND COUNTY

AT 120 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GORMAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

A SECOND STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CISCO....ALSO MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE CISCO...EASTLAND...GORMAN
AND RANGER.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THESE
STORMS.

IF THESE STORMS INTENSIFY...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST MONDAY EVENING FOR
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3252 9910 3251 9847 3231 9847 3225 9857
      3215 9879 3230 9877 3219 9913
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 230DEG 24KT 3220 9870

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
209 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

TXZ130-102045-
ERATH TX-
209 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN ERATH COUNTY

AT 209 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF STEPHENVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST MONDAY EVENING FOR
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3252 9838 3252 9807 3250 9805 3246 9804
      3229 9847 3246 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 235DEG 27KT 3241 9837

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
221 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

TXZ129-102045-
EASTLAND TX-
221 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTLAND COUNTY

AT 221 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER RANGER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

OTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GORMAN
AND 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF CARBON. THESE STORMS WERE ALSO MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
CARBON...CISCO...EASTLAND...GORMAN AND RANGER.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THESE
STORMS.

IF THESE STORMS INTENSIFY...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST MONDAY EVENING FOR
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3251 9882 3252 9847 3231 9847 3217 9873
      3217 9875 3215 9877 3215 9879 3226 9883
      3218 9912 3237 9912
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 237DEG 26KT 3248 9866