Flash Flood Warning 88, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
327 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX FORECAST SITUATION HEADED INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
WITH WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT LIES
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO WICHITA FALLS TO
HILLSBORO TO NEAR BEAUMONT ON THE TEXAS COAST. 18Z NAM HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA...ALTHOUGH IT IS A LITTLE
FAR EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT. W/V IMAGERY SHOWS TRAILING S/W
MOVING INTO FAR WEST TEXAS ATTM...AND THIS WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS HELPING SUSTAIN SYNOPTIC LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM INDICATE THAT UPPER
JET MAX WILL ALSO IMPINGE ON THE AREA THIS EVENING INCREASING THE
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT.

ONGOING ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND BECOME
INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AS STORMS MOVE EAST OF THE WARM FRONT
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAIL WOULD BE PRIMARY
THREAT IN THESE AREA. FARTHER SOUTH...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS UPPER LIFT INCREASES THIS
EVENING. AREAS PRIMARILY SOUTH AND WEST OF A BRECKENRIDGE TO ATHENS
LINE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OF 500-750J/KG
COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. IN
ADDITION...WITH PWS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES...SOME OVERNIGHT HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OCCURS.

ACTIVITY WILL LINGER AROUND...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA ON TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE ALSO RETAINED SOME
LOW POPS INTO WEDNESDAY AS LINGERING TROF WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT
OF SOUTHERN TEXAS. BEYOND MIDWEEK...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. A
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  62  78  55  73  53 /  80  30  20  20  10
WACO, TX              63  81  55  78  54 /  80  60  30  20  10
PARIS, TX             52  69  51  68  47 /  90  50  20  20  10
DENTON, TX            57  78  52  70  51 /  80  30  20  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          57  76  54  70  47 /  90  40  20  20  10
DALLAS, TX            60  78  55  73  53 /  80  40  20  20  10
TERRELL, TX           60  77  57  74  51 /  90  50  30  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         62  76  57  73  51 /  90  70  40  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            63  80  57  78  53 /  80  70  40  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
225 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-111200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
225 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 60
MPH ARE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST OF A BOWIE...TO FORT WORTH...TO PALESTINE
LINE THROUGH MID-EVENING. STRONG UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND A SLOW...NORTH-
MOVING WARM FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN COMPONENTS FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT ACROSS THIS AREA... WITH STORM ROTATION AND LOCALIZED TORNADIC
POTENTIAL THE GREATEST IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT.
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...LARGE HAIL
AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...AS THE LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS REMAINS COOL AND STABLE.

A STORM COMPLEX WILL LIKELY EVOLVE BY MID-EVENING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...
WITH A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT...NAMELY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT...AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY...WITH A
LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF NORTH TEXAS WHERE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN. THE PRIMARY
THREATS FROM STORMS ON TUESDAY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...
THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANT BE RULED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
SOUTHEAST OF A TEMPLE TO ATHENS LINE.

OTHERWISE...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

05/

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
419 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

TXZ129-102245-
EASTLAND TX-
419 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTERN EASTLAND COUNTY

AT 419 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES EAST OF RANGER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH. SEVERAL OTHER STRONG STORMS WERE LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTY...ALSO MOVING NORTHEAST.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE GORMAN AND RISING STAR.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST MONDAY EVENING FOR
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3208 9910 3252 9862 3252 9847 3230 9847
      3208 9892
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 232DEG 25KT 3246 9855

82/JLD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
437 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

TXZ130-102300-
ERATH TX-
437 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN ERATH COUNTY

AT 437 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES EAST OF RANGER...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST MONDAY EVENING FOR
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3252 9820 3238 9819 3237 9847 3251 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 261DEG 19KT 3247 9843

82/JLD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
449 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

TXZ102-103-118-102315-
WISE TX-DENTON TX-TARRANT TX-
449 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN DENTON COUNTY
  NORTHWESTERN TARRANT COUNTY
  SOUTHEASTERN WISE COUNTY

AT 449 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES EAST OF BRIAR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ARGYLE...AURORA...AZLE...
BARTONVILLE...BOYD...CORRAL CITY...HASLET...JUSTIN...KRUM...
NORTHLAKE...PECAN ACRES...PELICAN BAY AND ROANOKE.

HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST MONDAY EVENING FOR
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3314 9706 3297 9724 3287 9753 3293 9755
      3299 9754 3300 9754 3300 9757 3307 9758
      3332 9726
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 228DEG 30KT 3299 9748

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
453 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

TXZ129-102330-
EASTLAND TX-
453 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL EASTLAND COUNTY

AT 453 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RANGER...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST MONDAY EVENING FOR
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3248 9847 3230 9847 3217 9875 3217 9876
      3216 9878 3227 9883
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 241DEG 23KT 3235 9850

82/JLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
456 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 PM     HAIL             LIPAN                   32.52N  98.05W
11/10/2008  E1.00 INCH       HOOD               TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            LASTED APPROXIMATELY 5 MINUTES.