Severe Thunderstorm Warning 402, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
538 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

.AVIATION...
WARM FRONT NOW STRETCHES FROM NEAR WICHITA FALLS...TO JUST WEST OF
DFW...TO WEST OF LUFKIN. STORMS ARE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST
OF THIS BOUNDARY. TSRA WILL EVENTUALLY REACH DFW AND DAL AS THE
ENTIRE LINE AREA OF CONVECTION SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST. WILL SHOW
PREVAILING TSRA UNTIL 04Z AND THEN RA FOR A FEW HOURS THEREAFTER.
LACK OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LLJ...AND LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO IFR CIGS AND BR FOR A FEW HOURS
TOMORROW MORNING. DAL AND ACT WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
BETWEEN 10 AND 16Z TOMORROW AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES
THROUGH. WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BETWEEN 20-23Z
TOMORROW EVENING.

SH/13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008/
COMPLEX FORECAST SITUATION HEADED INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
WITH WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT LIES
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO WICHITA FALLS TO
HILLSBORO TO NEAR BEAUMONT ON THE TEXAS COAST. 18Z NAM HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA...ALTHOUGH IT IS A LITTLE
FAR EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT. W/V IMAGERY SHOWS TRAILING S/W
MOVING INTO FAR WEST TEXAS ATTM...AND THIS WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS HELPING SUSTAIN SYNOPTIC LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM INDICATE THAT UPPER
JET MAX WILL ALSO IMPINGE ON THE AREA THIS EVENING INCREASING THE
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT.

ONGOING ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND BECOME
INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AS STORMS MOVE EAST OF THE WARM FRONT
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAIL WOULD BE PRIMARY
THREAT IN THESE AREA. FARTHER SOUTH...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS UPPER LIFT INCREASES THIS
EVENING. AREAS PRIMARILY SOUTH AND WEST OF A BRECKENRIDGE TO ATHENS
LINE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OF 500-750J/KG
COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. IN
ADDITION...WITH PWS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES...SOME OVERNIGHT HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OCCURS.

ACTIVITY WILL LINGER AROUND...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA ON TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE ALSO RETAINED SOME
LOW POPS INTO WEDNESDAY AS LINGERING TROF WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT
OF SOUTHERN TEXAS. BEYOND MIDWEEK...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. A
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  62  78  55  73  53 /  80  30  20  20  10
WACO, TX              63  81  55  78  54 /  80  60  30  20  10
PARIS, TX             52  69  51  68  47 /  90  50  20  20  10
DENTON, TX            57  78  52  70  51 /  80  30  20  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          57  76  54  70  47 /  90  40  20  20  10
DALLAS, TX            60  78  55  73  53 /  80  40  20  20  10
TERRELL, TX           60  77  57  74  51 /  90  50  30  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         62  76  57  73  51 /  90  70  40  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            63  80  57  78  53 /  80  70  40  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

13/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
225 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-111200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
225 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 60
MPH ARE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST OF A BOWIE...TO FORT WORTH...TO PALESTINE
LINE THROUGH MID-EVENING. STRONG UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND A SLOW...NORTH-
MOVING WARM FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN COMPONENTS FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT ACROSS THIS AREA... WITH STORM ROTATION AND LOCALIZED TORNADIC
POTENTIAL THE GREATEST IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT.
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...LARGE HAIL
AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...AS THE LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS REMAINS COOL AND STABLE.

A STORM COMPLEX WILL LIKELY EVOLVE BY MID-EVENING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...
WITH A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT...NAMELY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT...AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY...WITH A
LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF NORTH TEXAS WHERE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN. THE PRIMARY
THREATS FROM STORMS ON TUESDAY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...
THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANT BE RULED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
SOUTHEAST OF A TEMPLE TO ATHENS LINE.

OTHERWISE...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

05/