River Flood Warning 75, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
538 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

.AVIATION...
WARM FRONT NOW STRETCHES FROM NEAR WICHITA FALLS...TO JUST WEST OF
DFW...TO WEST OF LUFKIN. STORMS ARE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST
OF THIS BOUNDARY. TSRA WILL EVENTUALLY REACH DFW AND DAL AS THE
ENTIRE LINE AREA OF CONVECTION SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST. WILL SHOW
PREVAILING TSRA UNTIL 04Z AND THEN RA FOR A FEW HOURS THEREAFTER.
LACK OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LLJ...AND LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO IFR CIGS AND BR FOR A FEW HOURS
TOMORROW MORNING. DAL AND ACT WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
BETWEEN 10 AND 16Z TOMORROW AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES
THROUGH. WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BETWEEN 20-23Z
TOMORROW EVENING.

SH/13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008/
COMPLEX FORECAST SITUATION HEADED INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
WITH WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT LIES
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO WICHITA FALLS TO
HILLSBORO TO NEAR BEAUMONT ON THE TEXAS COAST. 18Z NAM HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA...ALTHOUGH IT IS A LITTLE
FAR EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT. W/V IMAGERY SHOWS TRAILING S/W
MOVING INTO FAR WEST TEXAS ATTM...AND THIS WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS HELPING SUSTAIN SYNOPTIC LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM INDICATE THAT UPPER
JET MAX WILL ALSO IMPINGE ON THE AREA THIS EVENING INCREASING THE
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT.

ONGOING ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND BECOME
INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AS STORMS MOVE EAST OF THE WARM FRONT
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAIL WOULD BE PRIMARY
THREAT IN THESE AREA. FARTHER SOUTH...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS UPPER LIFT INCREASES THIS
EVENING. AREAS PRIMARILY SOUTH AND WEST OF A BRECKENRIDGE TO ATHENS
LINE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OF 500-750J/KG
COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. IN
ADDITION...WITH PWS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES...SOME OVERNIGHT HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OCCURS.

ACTIVITY WILL LINGER AROUND...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA ON TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE ALSO RETAINED SOME
LOW POPS INTO WEDNESDAY AS LINGERING TROF WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT
OF SOUTHERN TEXAS. BEYOND MIDWEEK...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. A
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  62  78  55  73  53 /  80  30  20  20  10
WACO, TX              63  81  55  78  54 /  80  60  30  20  10
PARIS, TX             52  69  51  68  47 /  90  50  20  20  10
DENTON, TX            57  78  52  70  51 /  80  30  20  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          57  76  54  70  47 /  90  40  20  20  10
DALLAS, TX            60  78  55  73  53 /  80  40  20  20  10
TERRELL, TX           60  77  57  74  51 /  90  50  30  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         62  76  57  73  51 /  90  70  40  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            63  80  57  78  53 /  80  70  40  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

13/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
856 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-111100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
856 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS
OVER 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
RISING STAR...TO WEATHERFORD...TO BONHAM. FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A
CONCERN WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 2 AM CDT TUESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING WITH A TORNADO
WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. IN
ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS BY MID
MORNING...TRIGGERING MORE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY STALLS. THE PRIMARY THREATS
FROM STORMS ON TUESDAY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. FLASH FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
RISING STAR...TO WEATHERFORD...TO BONHAM.

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
857 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

TXZ118-133-110330-
TARRANT TX-JOHNSON TX-
857 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY
  SOUTHERN TARRANT COUNTY

AT 857 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BENBROOK TO 7 MILES WEST OF JOSHUA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE ARLINGTON...BENBROOK...
BURLESON...CROWLEY...DALWORTHINGTON GARDENS...EDGECLIFF...EVERMAN...
FOREST HILL...FORT WORTH...GODLEY...JOSHUA...KENNEDALE...MANSFIELD...
PANTEGO...RENDON AND VENUS.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THESE
STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF TARRANT COUNTY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CST TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3278 9708 3242 9709 3240 9755 3273 9751
TIME...MOT...LOC 0257Z 256DEG 26KT 3267 9740 3244 9746

82/JLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
909 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0907 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ARLINGTON               32.69N  97.13W
11/10/2008                   TARRANT            TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            VEHICLES STRANDED AT I-30 AND COLLINS IN NORTH ARLINGTON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
910 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

TXZ104-110345-
COLLIN TX-
910 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN COLLIN COUNTY

AT 910 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES EAST OF WYLIE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE FARMERSVILLE...LOWRY
CROSSING...PRINCETON AND WYLIE.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CST TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3332 9629 3299 9629 3299 9656 3325 9659
TIME...MOT...LOC 0310Z 269DEG 29KT 3305 9643

82/JLD

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