Severe Thunderstorm Warning 248, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
414 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

.UPDATE...
CORRECTED 414 PM
SVR TSTORM WATCH #233 ISSUED FOR SE 1/2 OF N TX THROUGH 10 PM CDT.
EMBEDDED...MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE NOW THRU EARLY TO MID
EVENING...AS COLD FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE AREA. FORECASTS SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY DEVELOPED JUST BEFORE 2 PM...AND NOW
EXTENDED ALONG A BROKEN LINE FROM N OF HILLSBORO...TO WAXAHACHIE...TO
MESQUITE/BALCH SPRINGS...TO ROCKWALL AND NEAR GREENVILLE. COLD FRONT
WAS GENERALLY FROM SHERMAN...TO DALLAS...TO LAKE WHITNEY...TO
BETWEEN HAMILTON AND LAMPASAS...MOVING ESE NEAR 20 KTS.

BY EVENING...EXPECT BROKEN LINE OF SCATTERED STORMS TO GENERALLY
EXTEND ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM EMORY...TO WACO...TO KILLEEN
WITH CHANCE POPS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AREAS SE OF THIS LINE...AS
FRONT LOSES ITS POP AND BEGINS STALLING AS IT HEADS TOWARD
SE/CENTRAL TX. WILL LINGER LOW POPS OVER S/SW 1/2 OF N TX LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY...AS OLD FRONT MIXES BACK NORTH.
KEEPING TREND OF STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO N TX LATER SAT NIGHT
AND DRIVING OUT OF SE COUNTIES BY SAT AFTERNOON.

STRONG DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE SAT NIGHT AND MOVE READILY EAST TOWARD MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN/STORMS TO BREAK OUT MAINLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...AS LIFT TRAILS THE FRONT. ANY STORMS EMBEDDED IN RAIN AREAS
TO BE ELEVATED IN NATURE. MAIN THREATS SHOULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/LIGHTNING WITH
STRONGEST OF ACTIVITY. HEAVY RAIN PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN VERY
LOCALIZED AND SPOTTY...THUS COMBINED WITH PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SAT
NIGHT SYSTEM...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH/FFA/ ON THIS
PACKAGE...THOUGH SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...A DRY AND
SEASONABLE FORECAST IN STORE FOR N TX...AS COLD FRONT DRIVES GOOD
MOISTURE WELL OFF THE GULF COAST LATE SUNDAY AND NW FLOW DOMINATES
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE BECOMING ZONAL. NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON SYSTEM EVOLUTION...AS MODELS DIFFER QUITE A
BIT. A WARM UP WILL ENSUE HOWEVER THROUGH THE WEEK BACK INTO THE 80S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  57  79  51  68  48 /  10  10  90  30   0
WACO, TX              60  81  54  67  44 /  30  20  90  60   0
PARIS, TX             52  75  49  65  44 /  10  10  70  20   5
DENTON, TX            53  74  48  68  46 /  10  10  80  20   0
MCKINNEY, TX          53  76  47  67  46 /  10  10  80  20   0
DALLAS, TX            57  78  51  66  49 /  10  10  90  30   0
TERRELL, TX           56  79  50  66  45 /  20  10  90  40   5
CORSICANA, TX         60  79  53  66  47 /  40  10  90  60   5
TEMPLE, TX            63  82  54  68  44 /  50  20  90  70   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
351 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-261100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
351 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
ALONG A COLD FRONT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
FROM PARIS TO CORSICANA TO KILLEEN. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAINLY THROUGH THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. IN ADDITION TO ANY SEVERE WEATHER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SOME AREAS COULD RECEIVE
IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED THROUGH THE EVENING.

DUNN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
517 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0513 PM     HAIL             WACO                    31.57N  97.18W
04/25/2008  E1.00 INCH       MCLENNAN           TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL NEAR HIGHWAY 6 AND AND SANGER IN WACO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
525 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             2 W HUBBARD             31.85N  96.83W
04/25/2008  E1.75 INCH       HILL               TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            REPORTED JUST WEST OF HUBBARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
529 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     HAIL             2 S COOLIDGE            31.72N  96.65W
04/25/2008  E1.75 INCH       LIMESTONE          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLFBALL HAIL 2 MILES SOUTH OF COOLIDGE