Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
632 PM CDT THU APR 17 2008

.AVIATION...
632 PM CDT

THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING METRO TAF SITES. CHOSE TO INTRODUCE VCTS
AT 0030Z TO AVOID INITIAL PREVAILING CONDITION. LINE WILL AFFECT
SITES FOR AROUND 2 HOURS. WIND REPORTS FROM STORMS HAVE BEEN RATHER
PALTRY...EXPECT BULK OF WIND GUSTS AT METRO TAF SITES TO BE 35KTS OR
LESS FROM NW AS OUTFLOW PRECEDES STORMS AND EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT
TRAILS CONVECTION. DRYLINE CONVECTION HAS BEGUN EAST OF SAN ANGELO...
AND WILL IMPACT WACO LATE IN THE EVENING.

COLD-AIR STRATUS BANK IS CURRENTLY WELL BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS
PANHANDLE. MVFR CIGS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
AFTER DAYBREAK AS FRONTAL LAYER DEEPENS...SCATTERING BY LATE MORNING.
25

&&

.UPDATE...
545 PM CDT

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM. #58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION..
231 PM CDT

RATHER WEAK THUNDERSTORM SET-UP (FOR APRIL) IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS AND EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS SLOWLY DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NATIONS MID SECTION WHILE THE
FRONT IS CURRENTLY NEAR A LINE FROM LAWTON TO GRAHAM TO SWEETWATER.
DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH A FEW
SITES IN THE LOWER 60S. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER HAS INHIBITED MUCH
SURFACE HEATING TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS ARE NOTED IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL RESULT IN WEAK SBCAPE VALUES.

THE STRONG CAP EVIDENT ON THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING WILL CONTINUE TO
ERODE AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE CLOSER AND
LIFT INCREASES. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ORGANIZE INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. EXPECT THE
LINE OF CONVECTION TO REACH THE METROPLEX IN THE 5 PM TO 7 PM TIME
FRAME. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUFFICIENT DRY AIR AVAILABLE IN THE
MID LEVELS. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ELEVATED THIS
EVENING ONCE THE FRONT CATCHES UP TO THEM. MOST OF NORTH TEXAS HAS
A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THIS
SYSTEM SWEEPS THROUGH. BY TOMORROW MORNING...PRECIP SHOULD ONLY BE
AFFECTING THE EASTERN COUNTIES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA.

THIS WEEKEND LOOKS NICE WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 80S
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK A
LARGE BOWLING BALL LOW WILL ROTATE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ATTEMPT TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH AS IT DOES SO. MODELS STALL THE
FRONT OUT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AS THIS SYSTEM PIVOTS
INTO CANADA. LOW RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK AS
THIS FRONT WAVERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER.  SH/13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  50  68  50  81  59 /  80  10   0   0   0
WACO, TX              52  72  49  81  60 /  70  10   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             51  64  47  78  56 /  80  20   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            49  68  47  81  60 /  70   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          52  69  47  79  57 /  80  10   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            50  71  52  81  61 /  80  10   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           55  67  49  79  57 /  80  20   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         55  68  49  79  58 /  80  20   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            55  71  48  80  57 /  80  10   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

58/25
09/91/13/77

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
600 PM CDT THU APR 17 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-181100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
600 PM CDT THU APR 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ENDING BY MIDDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...
WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS EVENING ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM GOLDTHWAITE...TO DALLAS/FORT WORTH...TO SHERMAN/DENISON.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
TEXAS FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

26/25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
651 PM CDT THU APR 17 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     HAIL             ALVORD                  33.36N  97.69W
04/17/2008  M1.25 INCH       WISE               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
701 PM CDT THU APR 17 2008

TXZ130-131-180030-
HOOD TX-ERATH TX-
701 PM CDT THU APR 17 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL ERATH COUNTY
  NORTHERN HOOD COUNTY

AT 701 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 18 MILES NORTH OF STEPHENVILLE...MOVING EAST AT
40 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GRANBURY...LIPAN AND OAK
TRAIL SHORES.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3251 9806 3252 9805 3254 9805 3255 9763
      3244 9762 3236 9824 3251 9828
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 256DEG 35KT 3247 9816

77/TLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
704 PM CDT THU APR 17 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0654 PM     HAIL             3 E COOL                32.80N  97.96W
04/17/2008  E1.75 INCH       PARKER             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON HWY 180

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
705 PM CDT THU APR 17 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0701 PM     HAIL             1 N WEATHERFORD         32.77N  97.77W
04/17/2008  E1.75 INCH       PARKER             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            GOLFBALL HAIL REPORTED JUST NORTH OF DOWNTOWN
            WEATHERFORD

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