Alert archive / South Dakota / Flash Flood Watches in 2008

Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

June 4, 20084 states

NWS Sioux Falls, SD issued this flash flood watch at Jun 4, 2008, 3:00 PM CDT for 4 states. It took effect at Jun 4, 2008, 10:00 PM CDT. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jun 4, 2008, 3:00 PM CDT (20:00 UTC)
In effect from
Jun 4, 2008, 10:00 PM CDT
Expired
Jun 5, 2008, 2:50 AM CDT
In force
5 hr
Issued by
NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Flood severity
None
All 45 counties

Buena Vista County, IA, Cherokee County, IA, Clay County, IA, Dickinson County, IA, Ida County, IA, Lyon County, IA, O'Brien County, IA, Osceola County, IA, Plymouth County, IA, Sioux County, IA, Woodbury County, IA, Cottonwood County, MN, Jackson County, MN, Lincoln County, MN, Lyon County, MN, Murray County, MN, Nobles County, MN, Pipestone County, MN, Rock County, MN, Dakota County, NE, Dixon County, NE, Aurora County, SD, Beadle County, SD, Bon Homme County, SD, Brookings County, SD, Brule County, SD, Charles Mix County, SD, Clay County, SD, Davison County, SD, Douglas County, SD, Gregory County, SD, Hanson County, SD, Hutchinson County, SD, Jerauld County, SD, Kingsbury County, SD, Lake County, SD, Lincoln County, SD, McCook County, SD, Miner County, SD, Minnehaha County, SD, Moody County, SD, Sanborn County, SD, Turner County, SD, Union County, SD, Yankton County, SD

The radar

The Sioux Falls radar (KFSD), 16 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 12:00Z, 8.0 hours before the alert went out and 202 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Aberdeen, SD at 12:00Z on 2008-06-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Aberdeen, SD at 12:00Z on 2008-06-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 72 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1104 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
72 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
42 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS63 KFSD 042000
FFAFSD

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
300 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2008

.RAINFALL OF ONE AND A HALF TO TWO AND A HALF INCHES THAT FELL
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING HAS HELPED TO SATURATE THE
GROUND IN MANY LOCATIONS AS WELL AS CAUSE STREAMS...CREEKS AND
RIVERS TO RISE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE RAIN WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND COULD EXACERBATE ANY PROBLEMS THAT TONIGHTS
THUNDERSTORMS CREATE.

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-050400-
/O.NEW.KFSD.FF.A.0002.080605T0300Z-080605T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LYON-OSCEOLA-DICKINSON-SIOUX-OBRIEN-CLAY-PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE-
BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-IDA-LINCOLN-MURRAY-COTTONWOOD-NOBLES-JACKSON-
PIPESTONE-ROCK-DIXON-DAKOTA-BEADLE-KINGSBURY-BROOKINGS-GREGORY-
JERAULD-SANBORN-MINER-LAKE-MOODY-BRULE-AURORA-DAVISON-HANSON-
MCCOOK-MINNEHAHA-CHARLES MIX-DOUGLAS-HUTCHINSON-TURNER-BON HOMME-
YANKTON-UNION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCK RAPIDS...GEORGE...INWOOD...
LARCHWOOD...SIBLEY...SPIRIT LAKE...MILFORD...ARNOLDS PARK...
ORANGE CITY...SIOUX CENTER...SHELDON...HARTLEY...SANBORN...
SPENCER...LE MARS...CHEROKEE...STORM LAKE...SIOUX CITY...
IDA GROVE...HOLSTEIN...BATTLE CREEK...TYLER...HENDRICKS...
LAKE BENTON...IVANHOE...MARSHALL...SLAYTON...FULDA...WINDOM...
MOUNTAIN LAKE...WORTHINGTON...JACKSON...LAKEFIELD...PIPESTONE...
LUVERNE...WAKEFIELD...PONCA...ALLEN...SOUTH SIOUX CITY...HURON...
DE SMET...ARLINGTON...LAKE PRESTON...BROOKINGS...GREGORY...
BURKE...WESSINGTON SPRINGS...ALPENA...WOONSOCKET...HOWARD...
MADISON...FLANDREAU...CHAMBERLAIN...KIMBALL...PLANKINTON...
WHITE LAKE...STICKNEY...MITCHELL...ALEXANDRIA...EMERY...SALEM...
CANISTOTA...BRIDGEWATER...MONTROSE...SIOUX FALLS...WAGNER...
PLATTE...LAKE ANDES...MARTY...ARMOUR...CORSICA...DELMONT...
PARKSTON...FREEMAN...MENNO...TRIPP...PARKER...CENTERVILLE...
MARION...VIBORG...HURLEY...CHANCELLOR...CANTON...LENNOX...TEA...
HARRISBURG...TYNDALL...SCOTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...AVON...TABOR...
YANKTON...VERMILLION...NORTH SIOUX CITY...BERESFORD...ELK POINT...
ALCESTER...JEFFERSON
300 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA...SOUTHWEST 
  MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING 
  THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHWEST IOWA...BUENA VISTA...
  CHEROKEE...CLAY...DICKINSON...IDA...LYON...OBRIEN...OSCEOLA...
  PLYMOUTH...SIOUX AND WOODBURY. IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
  COTTONWOOD...JACKSON...LINCOLN...LYON...MURRAY...NOBLES...
  PIPESTONE AND ROCK. IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...DAKOTA AND DIXON. 
  IN SOUTH DAKOTA...AURORA...BEADLE...BON HOMME...BROOKINGS...
  BRULE...CHARLES MIX...CLAY...DAVISON...DOUGLAS...GREGORY...
  HANSON...HUTCHINSON...JERAULD...KINGSBURY...LAKE...LINCOLN...
  MCCOOK...MINER...MINNEHAHA...MOODY...SANBORN...TURNER...UNION 
  AND YANKTON.

* FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* SATURATED CONDITIONS AS WELL AS MANY RIVERS NEAR BANKFUL WILL
  SET THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT.

* RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA THIS
  EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
  ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL BE LIKELY AND COULD CAUSE AREA
  CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS TO RISE RAPIDLY. SINCE MUCH OF THE
  RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...FLASH
  FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS...WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

$$

08
2 follow-up statements
000 
WGUS63 KFSD 050424
FFAFSD

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1124 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2008

.TWO AREAS OF RAINFALL EXIST WHICH MAY IMPACT AREAS LATE TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. ONE AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAIN EXISTS IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHICH COULD LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG A WARM FRONT
ABOVE THE SURFACE...IMPACTING AREAS FROM AROUND YANKTON...TO SIOUX
CITY TO STORM LAKE IOWA...LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF MODERATE RAINFALL...WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY RAINFALL...IS IN
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WHICH WILL
LIKELY MOVE AS FAR EAST AS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.

IAZ001>003-012>014-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-SDZ039-040-
054>056-061-062-066-067-050530-
/O.CAN.KFSD.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-080605T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LYON-OSCEOLA-DICKINSON-SIOUX-OBRIEN-CLAY-LINCOLN-MURRAY-
COTTONWOOD-NOBLES-JACKSON-PIPESTONE-ROCK-KINGSBURY-BROOKINGS-
MINER-LAKE-MOODY-MCCOOK-MINNEHAHA-TURNER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCK RAPIDS...GEORGE...INWOOD...
LARCHWOOD...SIBLEY...SPIRIT LAKE...MILFORD...ARNOLDS PARK...
ORANGE CITY...SIOUX CENTER...SHELDON...HARTLEY...SANBORN...
SPENCER...TYLER...HENDRICKS...LAKE BENTON...IVANHOE...MARSHALL...
SLAYTON...FULDA...WINDOM...MOUNTAIN LAKE...WORTHINGTON...
JACKSON...LAKEFIELD...PIPESTONE...LUVERNE...DE SMET...ARLINGTON...
LAKE PRESTON...BROOKINGS...HOWARD...MADISON...FLANDREAU...SALEM...
CANISTOTA...BRIDGEWATER...MONTROSE...SIOUX FALLS...PARKER...
CENTERVILLE...MARION...VIBORG...HURLEY...CHANCELLOR...CANTON...
LENNOX...TEA...HARRISBURG
1124 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA...SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL MISSED THIS AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND IT IS LIKELY
THAT THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STAY SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS AREA LATE
TONIGHT. 

$$

IAZ020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-SDZ069>071-051230-
/O.EXT.KFSD.FF.A.0002.080605T0700Z-080605T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE-BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-IDA-DIXON-DAKOTA-YANKTON-
CLAY-UNION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LE MARS...CHEROKEE...STORM LAKE...
SIOUX CITY...IDA GROVE...HOLSTEIN...BATTLE CREEK...WAKEFIELD...
PONCA...ALLEN...SOUTH SIOUX CITY...YANKTON...VERMILLION...
NORTH SIOUX CITY...BERESFORD...ELK POINT...ALCESTER...JEFFERSON
1124 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST 
  SOUTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHWEST 
  IOWA...BUENA VISTA...CHEROKEE...IDA...PLYMOUTH AND WOODBURY. 
  IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...DAKOTA AND DIXON. IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH 
  DAKOTA...CLAY...UNION AND YANKTON.

* UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY

* SATURATED CONDITIONS AS WELL AS MANY RIVERS NEAR BANKFULL WILL 
  SET THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING 
  LATE TONIGHT. 

* RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE
  TONIGHT. IF THIS HAPPENS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL
  BE LIKELY AND COULD CAUSE AREA CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS TO
  RISE RAPIDLY. SINCE MUCH OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER A
  SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN
  AREAS...WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

$$

SDZ038-050-052-053-057>060-063>065-068-051230-
/O.CON.KFSD.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-080605T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BEADLE-GREGORY-JERAULD-SANBORN-BRULE-AURORA-DAVISON-HANSON-
CHARLES MIX-DOUGLAS-HUTCHINSON-BON HOMME-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HURON...GREGORY...BURKE...
WESSINGTON SPRINGS...ALPENA...WOONSOCKET...CHAMBERLAIN...
KIMBALL...PLANKINTON...WHITE LAKE...STICKNEY...MITCHELL...
ALEXANDRIA...EMERY...WAGNER...PLATTE...LAKE ANDES...MARTY...
ARMOUR...CORSICA...DELMONT...PARKSTON...FREEMAN...MENNO...TRIPP...
TYNDALL...SCOTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...AVON...TABOR
1124 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH 
  DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...IN EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...BEADLE...JERAULD AND 
  SANBORN. IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...BRULE...CHARLES MIX 
  AND GREGORY. IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AURORA...BON HOMME...
  DAVISON...DOUGLAS...HANSON AND HUTCHINSON.

* UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY

* SOME AREAS ARE VERY SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
  IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

* RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE WEST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
  AND LATE TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES COULD BE
  POSSIBLE AND MAY CAUSE AREA CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS TO RISE
  RAPIDLY. SINCE MUCH OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER A SHORT
  PERIOD OF TIME...FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN
  AREAS...WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

$$

 MJF
000 
WGUS63 KFSD 050750
FFAFSD

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
250 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008


IAZ020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-SDZ038-050-052-053-057>060-063>065-
068>071-050845-
/O.CAN.KFSD.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-080605T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE-BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-IDA-DIXON-DAKOTA-BEADLE-
GREGORY-JERAULD-SANBORN-BRULE-AURORA-DAVISON-HANSON-CHARLES MIX-
DOUGLAS-HUTCHINSON-BON HOMME-YANKTON-CLAY-UNION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LE MARS...CHEROKEE...STORM LAKE...
SIOUX CITY...IDA GROVE...HOLSTEIN...BATTLE CREEK...WAKEFIELD...
PONCA...ALLEN...SOUTH SIOUX CITY...HURON...GREGORY...BURKE...
WESSINGTON SPRINGS...ALPENA...WOONSOCKET...CHAMBERLAIN...
KIMBALL...PLANKINTON...WHITE LAKE...STICKNEY...MITCHELL...
ALEXANDRIA...EMERY...WAGNER...PLATTE...LAKE ANDES...MARTY...
ARMOUR...CORSICA...DELMONT...PARKSTON...FREEMAN...MENNO...TRIPP...
TYNDALL...SCOTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...AVON...TABOR...YANKTON...
VERMILLION...NORTH SIOUX CITY...BERESFORD...ELK POINT...
ALCESTER...JEFFERSON
245 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WHILE SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. 

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES. $$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Sioux Falls, SD wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Jun 4, 10:59 AM CDT, 4 hours 1 minute earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 4, 10:59 AM CDT, 4 hours 1 minute before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1059AM CDT WED JUN 4 2008

.DISCUSSION...
VERY ACTIVE 36 HOURS COMING UP AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVES
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY. FOR TODAY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CLEAR OUT OF MOST AREAS...BUT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND A
MOIST PROFILE...CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IN FACT...SOME OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT MOVING ONTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND COULD SEE SOME OF
THIS PRECIPITATION MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
TAKE OUT THREAT OF TORNADOES/LAND SPOUTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE LACK OF A DECENT BOUNDARY AND LACK OF
HEATING...ESPECIALLY NOW THAT THE CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST IS
EXPANDING PRETTY RAPIDLY.

OTHERWISE...HEADING INTO TONIGHT...PRETTY GOOD CHANCE THAT A FLOOD
WATCH WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THAT BRINGS HEAVY RAIN
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT PRETTY MUCH JUST HAIL AND MAINLY
LATE. BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE CWA.

08

&&

AVIATION...
SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY MUCH LOW END MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR IN FOG
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ADVECTION SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER SPREADING EWRD EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE CWA SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT
MEASURABLE PRECIP. SHOULD DRY OUT FOR A TIME LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS BEST MID LEVEL FORCING SLIDES EAST OF
THE AREA...HOWEVER CONVOLUTED MOIST WRLY FLOW MAKES IT HARD TO
COMPLETELY DISCOUNT SHOWERS ANYWHERE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE TODAY AS SFC
HEATING WOULD MOSTLY BE SELF DESTRUCTIVE PROVIDED THE ABUNDANCE OF
SFC MOISTURE...WITH THE EXCEPTION POSSIBLY IN THE WEST.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT NON EXISTENT THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT MAY HAVE TO WATCH WRN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS AND SOME OF DRYING IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER SHOULD
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN PLACES WHICH DO SEE A BIT OF SUNSHINE.
SHOULD TIMING BE RIGHT WITH S/WV PASSAGE...ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION
CAN BE EXPECTED. NAM AND GFS DIFFER ON THE EXTENT OF CAPE WITH THE
GFS YIELDING MORE ROBUST MU CAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ML
CAPES ARE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR IN THE 800 TO 1400 J/KG RANGE BY 00Z THIS
EVENING IN THE JAMES VALLEY WEST. DEEP LAYER DIRECTION SHEAR DOES
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREA LATE
TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATED TALL
SKINNY CAPE...WHICH DOES NOT SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. SO...MAINLY
THINKING MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL
IN THE LOW END SEVERE RANGE. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LANDSPOUTS WITH THESE STORMS. PROGGED 2 KM VGP VALUES
IN THE .1 TO .4 RANGE AND LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 DEG/KM. SHOULD THERE
BE ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING...WHICH REMAINS A QUESTION AT THIS
TIME...THEN A FEW LANDSPOUTS ARE CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY.

BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE LATER TONIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN LATE THU AFTERNOON INTO THU EVENING. STRONG ELEVATED WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT WITH SOME
STORMS LIKELY BECOMING SEVERE. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE
ELEVATED STORMS WILL HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...AND POSSIBLY
LARGER. THESE STORM SHOULD MOVE FROM THE SRN CWA AROUND
MIDNIGHT...TO THE NRN EXTEND OF THE CWA TOWARDS SUNRISE. THEN
GENERALLY SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER IN
THE MORNING AND INTO MID AFTERNOON. SET UP FOR LATE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING IS A POTENTIALLY VOLATILE ONE. SEVERE THREAT WILL
LARGELY DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF UPPER TROUGH AND SFC WARM FRONT.
MODELS HAVING DIFFERENT IDEAS ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING BUT LIKELY
THERE WILL BE HIGH THREAT OF SEVERE WX ALONG AND EAST OF I29 AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS THE WRN CWA BORDER. VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT WILL BE ALONG THE SFC WARM FRONT...WHICH AT
THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS SE SD AND SW MN. WILL ALSO
HAVE TO MONITOR THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WITH THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND
AGAIN TOMORROW.

THINGS DRY OUT ON FRIDAY AND STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE
AREA. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED UPPER LOW FARTHER NORTH...SO LOWER THE
CHANCES FOR POP FRI MORNING. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE DAY FRI. OTHERWISE OVERALL WET WX PATTERN TO CONTINUE
INTO THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

LIEBL/RYRHOLM
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 4, 11:28 AM CDT, 3 hours 32 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1128 AM CDT WED JUN 04 2008

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-051200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
1128 AM CDT WED JUN 04 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND LIFT NORTHWARD. SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS...ESPECIALLY LATE.

FLOODING...
THE LITTLE SIOUX RIVER FROM AROUND SPENCER TO LINN GROVE IS
EXPECTED TO CREST AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE
THIS WEEK.

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
VERMILLION RIVER THE NEXT FEW DAY. RAINS FROM THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH COULD BE CAUSE FOR
CONTINUED OR ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. THIS COULD CREATE SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ISSUES AS
WELL AS INCREASE THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING ON
CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF A BROOKINGS TO YANKTON
LINE WITH GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND STRONG
TORNADOES ALL THREATS. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT TO THE
WEST OF THIS LINE WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY AFTER

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FSD. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Sioux Falls, SD issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 4, 3:19 PM CDTRiver Flood WarningFSDLincoln, Union12 days
Jun 4, 3:19 PM CDTRiver Flood WarningFSDUnion13 days
Jun 4, 3:41 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningFSDBon Homme, Yankton2 hr
Jun 4, 4:08 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFSDBon Homme, Yankton37 min
Jun 4, 4:25 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningFSDYankton2 hr
Jun 4, 4:43 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFSDYankton47 min
Jun 4, 8:09 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningFSDClay, Dickinson4 days

Nearby

Flash Flood Watches in South Dakota, 2008Flash Flood Watches in Iowa, 2008Flash Flood Watches in Minnesota, 2008Every flash flood watch in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.