Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 AM MST WED SEP 10 2008

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THIS MORNINGS 12Z FLAGSTAFF SOUNDING IS SHOWING A
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS DOWN TO 0.44 INCH
FROM 0.71 INCH YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GOES
SATELLITE PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG PLUME OF
MOISTURE WITH 0.75 TO OVER 1.00 INCH OF PW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH
INTO YAVAPAI COUNTY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE WEST. THEREFORE THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA TODAY PRODUCING GOOD CHANCES FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS TODAY COULD
BE SEVERE.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WERE UPDATED FOR THE FIRST PERIOD THIS
MORNING. DECREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
ZONES AS DRIER AIR AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY REDUCE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION (230 AM)...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A PERIOD OF ACTIVE
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS DEVELOPS. THERE IS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING...AND
FORECAST TO MOVE TO NORTHERN BAJA BY FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH HAS ALREADY
BROUGHT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT...AND MANY OF THE STORMS
THIS MORNING ARE MOVING AT 30 - 40 MPH. COLDER AIR ALOFT AND LARGE
SCALE DYNAMICS LOOK TO ARRIVE HERE ON THURSDAY. AS FAR AS MOISTURE
GOES...SURFACE DEW POINTS THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE LOW
DESERTS TO THE LOW 40S AT PAGE...AND SATELLITE PWS INDICATE VALUES
NEAR ONE INCH AS FAR NORTH AS THE GRAND CANYON. IT LOOKS LIKE WE
WILL REMAIN PRETTY MOIST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW AND MID LEVEL
STREAMLINES REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRIER MORE STABLE AIR IS SHOWN TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD FROM UTAH AS SFC WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY. THIS SHOULD
PUSH THE MONSOON AIRMASS AND THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHWARD TO THE MOGOLLON RIM.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MID LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NORTHLAND
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME EASTERLY STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
TRANSITION SLOWLY TO SOUTHERLY BY TUESDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ARE SHOWN TO INCREASE HERE...AND WE HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE NORTH OF THE HIGH TERRAIN TO A KPGA-K0V7 LINE.
EXPECT LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGER STORMS...ALONG WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS AND HAIL. STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE TO WIDELY
SCATTERED COVERAGE AFTER 01Z THURSDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SEE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST (FWFFGZ) FOR DISCUSSION OF
DAYS 1 AND 2.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
NORTH OF A PAYSON TO WINDOW ROCK LINE...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS CONTINUING. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
LINGER FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...............BOHLIN
AVIATION/FIRE WX.....42

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.

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