Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

000 
WGUS55 KFGZ 281915
FFWFGZ
AZC007-017-282115-
/O.EXT.KFGZ.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-080128T2115Z/
/00000.U.DM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1212 PM MST MON JAN 28 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR A DAM FAILURE IN...
  EAST CENTRAL GILA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA...
  SOUTHEASTERN NAVAJO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA...

* UNTIL 215 PM MST

* AT 945 AM MST...HYDROLOGISTS WITH THE BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS 
INDICATE THAT WATER LEVELS ON BOTH THE COOLEE AND BOOTLEG DAMS HAD 
BEGUN TO LOWER BUT REMAINED AROUND 1 FOOT FROM THE TOP OF EACH DAM. 
DAM FAILURE IS STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL WATER LEVELS LOWER FURTHER. 
SHOULD THESE DAMS FAIL...FLOOD WATERS WILL TRAVEL DOWN CORDUROY AND 
CARRIZO CREEKS...REACHING THE TOWN OF CARRIZO IN ABOUT 2.5 HOURS. 
FLOOD WATER DEPTHS OF 10 TO 12 FEET WOULD THEN BE EXPECTED IN 
CARRIZO.

CARRIZO CREEK BETWEEN SHOW LOW AND THE CONFLUENCE WITH CORDUROY 
CREEK IS FLOWING AT AROUND 9000 CUBIC FEET PER SECOND WITH FLOW 
AMOUNTS DECREASING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. 

SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH 200 
PM MST. 

* AFFECTED LOCATIONS INCLUDE CARRIZO

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3403 10990 3406 11001 3402 11015 3381 11029
      3382 11031 3403 11030 3413 11023 3412 10988

$$

MCCOLLUM

000 
WGUS55 KFGZ 282113
FFWFGZ
AZC007-017-290115-
/O.EXT.KFGZ.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-080129T0115Z/
/00000.U.DM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
206 PM MST MON JAN 28 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR A DAM FAILURE IN...
  EAST CENTRAL GILA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA...
  SOUTHEASTERN NAVAJO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA...

* UNTIL 615 PM MST

* AT 206 PM MST...HYDROLOGISTS WITH THE BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS 
INDICATE THAT WATER LEVELS ON BOTH THE COOLEE AND BOOTLEG DAMS 
CONTINUED TO LOWER. HOWEVER...THE SPILLWAYS ON EACH DAM HAVE NOT YET 
BEEN INSPECTED FOR DAMAGE. THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAM FAILURE 
STILL  EXITS UNTIL WATER LEVELS LOWER FURTHER. SHOULD THESE DAMS 
FAIL...FLOOD WATERS WILL TRAVEL DOWN CORDUROY AND CARRIZO 
CREEKS...REACHING THE TOWN OF CARRIZO IN ABOUT 2.5 HOURS. FLOOD 
WATER DEPTHS OF AROUND 10 FEET WOULD THEN BE EXPECTED IN CARRIZO.

CARRIZO CREEK BETWEEN SHOW LOW AND THE CONFLUENCE WITH CORDUROY 
CREEK IS FLOWING AT AROUND 7000 CUBIC FEET PER SECOND WITH FLOW 
AMOUNTS DECREASING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. 

SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH 200 
PM MST. 

* AFFECTED LOCATIONS INCLUDE CARRIZO

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF 
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3403 10990 3406 11001 3402 11015 3381 11029
      3382 11031 3403 11030 3413 11023 3412 10988

$$

MCCOLLUM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
955 AM MST MON JAN 28 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS OVER ARIZONA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS STORM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD
OF HEAVIER RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...STRONG WINDS...AND RAPIDLY
LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. EXPECT AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 5000 TO 6500 FEET TODAY...FALLING TO
BELOW 5000 FEET BY TONIGHT. UNSETTLED AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAIN AND SNOW WHICH AFFECTED
NORTHERN AZ LAST NIGHT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE STATE...WITH MAINLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUING THIS MORNING. STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...PRODUCING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN
AREAS WHICH RECEIVED SNOW LAST NIGHT. AS A RESULT...MOST AREAS HAVE
EITHER A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY OR A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
TODAY. BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...A FINAL VORTICITY CENTER AND
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM THE
NORTHWEST CORNER. THIS WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO MOST VALLEY FLOOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF
THE RIM AND TO AROUND 4500 FEET SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.

FOR TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WIND
AND PRECIPITATION...THEN ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. THIS STORM WILL AGAIN BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW...LOW SNOW LEVELS...AND STRONG WINDS. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM
APPEARS IT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING RAIN AND SNOW
AMOUNTS LIGHT TO MODERATE.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
CONTINUED COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. STORM SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE DOWN THE STORM TRACK INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA...PRODUCING STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
MOST OF THE REGION WITH INCLEMENT WEATHER THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. EXPECT WDSPRD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED LIFR
CONDITIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AVERAGING 20 TO 30 KTS WITH
GUSTS FROM 35 TO 45 KTS FROM LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL
NOON MONDAY FOR AZ ZONES 016-017-018

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR AZ ZONE 004 ABOVE 6000
FEET.

SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR AZ ZONES
006-007-015-016.

SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM TUESDAY AZ ZONES
009-010-011-017-039-040.

WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TODAY UNTIL 3 AM TUESDAY AZ ZONES
012-013-014

WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM TODAY AZ ZONES 008-037-038.
&&

WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

ONTON/MCCOLLUM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
602 AM MST MON JAN 28 2008

AZZ004>018-037>040-291315-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
602 AM MST MON JAN 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. THIS STORM WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
TO AREAS ABOVE 6000 FEET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP...WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH IN MANY
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH POOR
VISIBILITY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW...STRONG WINDS...AND SNOW LEVELS BELOW 5000 FEET. VARIOUS
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...PLEASE SEE THESE PRODUCTS (PHXWSWFGZ) FOR DETAILS.

THERE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT OF FLOODING ALONG STREAMS
AND RIVERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI...GILA...SOUTHERN NAVAJO AND
APACHE COUNTIES DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON FOR PORTIONS OF THIS
AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ANOTHER WINDY AND COLD STORM SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

JJ