Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
940 PM MST SUN JAN 27 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
RAIN AND SNOW OVER ARIZONA THROUGH TOMORROW. EXPECT PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM ABOVE 6000 FEET ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA TONIGHT WITH THE SNOW LEVEL DECREASING TO AROUND 5000 TO
6000 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXTREMELY BUSY SHIFT THIS EVENING TRYING TO COVER
HYDROLOGIC AND WINTER ISSUES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM GAGES IN THE
YAVAPAI FLOOD CONTROL NETWORK IS SHOWING BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES
TODAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW STATIONS COMING IN AT ABOVE
TWO INCHES. THERE ARE TWO RAWS SITES IN YAVAPAI THAT ARE COMING IN
AT JUST ABOVE THREE INCHES...CROWN KING AND HORSETHIEF BASIN. EVEN
WITH THE FAIRLY DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE
TAKING THE RUNOFF WITHOUT GOING OVER AT THIS TIME. STREAM GAGES ARE
SHOWING ALL STREAMS IN YAVAPAI WITHIN THEIR BANKS...ALTHOUGH SOME
ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT RISES. GRANITE...OAK...WET BEAVER...AND THE
AQUA FRIA ARE JUST A FEW OF THE GAGES WE ARE LOOKING AT. THINGS ARE
STILL A LITTLE DICEY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING...SO THESE
GAGES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE
SAME PRETTY MUCH GOES FOR NORTHERN GILA COUNTY AS WELL. RAIN AMOUNTS
FROM THE RAWS SITES THERE ARE SIMILAR TO YAVAPAI COUNTY...WITH A
MAJORITY SEEING ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH A FEW SITES REPORTING OVER
TWO INCHES. WE ISSUED TWO HYDRO PRODUCTS FOR THE WASHINGTON PARK
AREA AS THE LOW WATER CROSSING ON THE EAST VERDE BECAME INUNDATED.
THIS FLOOD ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE TOWNS OF STRAWBERRY
AND PINE. FOR MORE DETAILS...PLEASE SEE PHXFLSFGZ.

NOW FOR THE WINTER ISSUES. WE WILL BE UPGRADING THE SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING...AND ISSUING A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE
EASTERN RIM. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS AT 700MB WILL
PROVIDE STRONG OROGRAPHIC LIFT WHILE A 150 KNOT JET STREAK AROUND
250 MB WILL PROVIDE FOR STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. WILL SPELL
OUT THE DETAILS REGARDING THE ELEVATION AND SNOW AMOUNTS IN
UPDATES...PLEASE SEE PHXWSWFGZ. WILL ALSO NEED TO CANCEL THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AS WELL FOR THE EASTERN RIM...PLEASE SEE PHXFFAFGZ FOR
MORE INFORMATION.

WILL BE GETTING THOSE PRODUCT UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (330 PM MST)...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
PACIFIC LOW CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A
LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS LOW CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOW AND RAIN THROUGH
MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW
MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND THE 6500 TO
7000 FOOT LEVEL OVER NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA WITH HIGHER SNOW LEVELS
7000 TO 8000 FEET OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARIZONA. BY MONDAY
MORNING SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 5000 FEET OVER THE KAIBAB TO
AROUND 6500 FEET OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. AS CLOUDS
GRADUALLY DECREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS WILL RAMP UP WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DOWN INTO THE LITTLE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DECREASE TEMPERATURES AND
FURTHER DECREASE SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 3000 TO 5000 FEET BY TUESDAY.
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER AND
WEAK DYNAMICS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED AND LIKELY OCCUR WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN EASTERN ARIZONA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 MPH DURING THE
DAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
CONTINUED COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. STORM SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE DOWN THE STORM TRACK INTO THE NORTHLAND...PRODUCING STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
MOST OF THE REGION WITH INCLEMENT WEATHER THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. EXPECT WDSPRD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED LIFR
CONDITIONS ABOVE 6500 FEET THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AVERAGING 15 TO 25 KTS WITH
GUSTS FROM 30 TO 35 KTS THROUGH MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. PETERSON

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL
NOON MONDAY FOR AZ ZONES 008/018/037/038.

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR AZ ZONE
004 ABOVE 6500 FEET.

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR AZ ZONE 015
ABOVE 6500 FEET.

SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR AZ ZONE 016 ABOVE 7000 FEET.

SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MONDAY AZ ZONE
017 ABOVE 8000 FEET.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
551 AM MST SUN JAN 27 2008

AZZ004>018-037>040-280700-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
551 AM MST SUN JAN 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO A WARM SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS
WHICH WILL LEAD TO SNOW LEVELS AROUND 7500 TO 8000 FEET INITIALLY
WITH THIS STORM TODAY...ALTHOUGH SNOW LEVELS COULD BRIEFLY LOWER
TO AROUND 7000 FEET THIS MORNING. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE KAIBAB PLATEAU THROUGH MONDAY.

WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
INCLUDING NORTHERN GILA AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES...AND A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG
SOUTHWEST FACING TERRAIN. PEOPLE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS ARE URGED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SITUATION.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION AND ALSO CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO
LOWER TO 5500 TO 6500 FEET OVER COCONINO AND YAVAPAI
COUNTIES...AND 7500 FEET FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS WHERE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A PERIOD OF SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONT...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE FROM THE MOGOLLON
RIM NORTHWARD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

JJ