Severe Thunderstorm Warning 141, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
225 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS CONVECTION AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS
APPEAR IN GOOD AGREEMENT. GFS A LITTLE CLOSER WITH SURFACE FEATURES
SO WILL USE FOR DETAILS.

IN NEAR TERM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING AND WILL ADJUST POPS PRIOR TO FORECAST ISSUANCE.
FOR REMAINDER OF DAY MAIN ISSUE WILL BE TIMING OF CONVECTION WITH
COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS ACROSS FA. STRONG CAPPING WILL PRECLUDE
FROPA WITH +12-14C AIR. BOUNDARY REACHES VALLEY REGION AROUND 18Z
AND ACCELERATES ACROSS WESTERN MN DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG MID
LEVEL COOLING ARRIVES BETWEEN 18-21Z FROM NAM20 AND WILL USE THIS
TIMING FOR ONSET OF CONVECTION...LIKELY JUST EAST OF VALLEY. WITH
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUCH AS THEY ARE WE COULD GO SEVERE QUICK AND
WILL MENTION POTENTIAL EAST OF VALLEY. WITH SURFACE LOW/TRIPLY POINT
OVER FAR NW MN WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO
BIG HAIL AND WIND. WITH THERMAL RIDGE CROSSING FA WILL HOT AND MUGGY
FROM VALLEY EAST. POST FRONTAL WIND WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE OVER
WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. ADIABATIC LAYER RISES TO ABOUT 800
MB WITH 40KTS TO MIX. WILL ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES WEST OF
VALLEY FROM 18Z TO AROUND 00Z.

WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AIR MASS GREATLY STABILIZES AND DRIES. WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE BUFFER OVER FAR EAST AND NORTH. WILL BE QUITE A
BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID.

ON SATURDAY LOW LEVEL RH WRAPS AROUND DEPARTING LOW AND WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 AND COLD POOL
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LATE AM OR AFTERNOON SHRA. AIR MASS MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT MAY SEE A RUMBLE. WILL ALSO BE A
BREEZY TO WINDY DAY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY OVER PARTS OF THE REGION.

SUNDAY LOOKS WARMER AS 850MB TEMPERATURES RECOVER ABOUT 4C. WILL
LIKELY SEE AFTERNOON CU BUT SHOULD STILL SEE RESPECTABLE RECOVER AND
WILL LEAN TEMPERATURES TOWARDS WARMER MAV GUIDANCE.

THERMAL COLUMN RECOVERS FOR BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE/COLD FRONT TUESDAY. THIS HANDLED WELL
BY ONGOING FORECAST SO NO CHANGES TO LONGER RANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLD MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN
STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF VALLEY. WILL GET REAL WINDY
WEST OF VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON HENCE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

MN...NONE.

&&

VOELKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
422 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-120930-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
422 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008

...A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON JUST EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. AN ISOLATED STORM COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS EARLY
THIS MORNING. BY LATE AFTERNOON STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY
SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE FAVORED LOCATION WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ROSEAU TO THIEF RIVER FALLS AND
FERGUS FALLS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER
FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY 7PM CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED OVER NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON.

VOELKER