Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS Grand Forks, ND

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 110400
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1100 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

MNC167-NDC077-110410-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0137.000000T0000Z-080711T0430Z/
WILKIN MN-RICHLAND ND-
1100 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL RICHLAND AND
CENTRAL WILKIN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

AT 1100 PM CDT...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA IN CENTRAL WILKIN AND EAST CENTRAL RICHLAND COUNTIES. SO THE
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4628 9627 4629 9628 4648 9628 4651 9581
      4612 9580 4610 9627
TIME...MOT...LOC 0400Z 269DEG 34KT 4615 9606

$$

MNC111-110430-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0137.000000T0000Z-080711T0430Z/
OTTER TAIL MN-
1100 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN OTTER TAIL COUNTY...

AT 1056 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THE STORM
WAS LOCATED 3 MILES EAST OF WESTERN...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF FERGUS
FALLS...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DALTON BY 1110 PM CDT...
  9 MILES SOUTH OF UNDERWOOD BY 1115 PM CDT...

  INTERSTATE 94 BETWEEN MILE MARKER 64 AROUND 1105 PM CDT...
  AND MILE MARKER 70 AROUND 1110 PM CDT...

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4628 9627 4629 9628 4648 9628 4651 9581
      4612 9580 4610 9627
TIME...MOT...LOC 0400Z 269DEG 34KT 4615 9606

$$
SPEICHER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
959 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. UPPER RIDGE WILL
SHIFT INTO EASTERN MN BY MORNING. UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND AMPLIFY THE PATTERN A BIT.

RISING 700-800 HPA TEMPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD HELP TO CAP ATMOSPHERE.
FREEZING LEVELS RISE TO 15K FT BY MORNING. MOSTLY HEAVY RAIN
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWALTERS REMAIN LOW OVER FORECAST AREA AND INTO
SOUTHEAST SK. UPPER LEVEL JET PUNCHES INTO SOUTHERN SK. SHOULD KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER SOUTHEAST SK. THUNDERSTORMS PROBABLY MORE
LIKELY FOR FRI.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 316 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008/
FORECAST CONCERN IS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SFC OBSERVATIONS CURRENTLY SHOWING THE WARM FRONT ENTERING THE FAR
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. 18Z ABR SOUNDING CURRENTLY SHOWING A CAPPING
INVERSION IN THE 825-850 MB LAYER WITH CIN ON THE ORDER OF -80 J/KG.
THE 18Z ABR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE WAS 95 DEGREES. THIS WAS...FOR
THE MOMENT...KEEPING MIXED LAYER CAPE OF AROUND 3000 J/KG AT BAY. 40
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ND TO INITIATE
THE FIRST EVENT. GFS SHOWING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF OVER 50 KNOTS IN
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. AGREE WITH SPC SWODY1 THAT GREATEST
NOCTURNAL TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. DESPITE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS CONVECTION
SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BY
SUNRISE.

ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SHOULD BE IN THE 12Z-00Z TIME FRAME
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT TRACKS EASTWARD.
STRONG DESTABILIZATION IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
SHOULD ALLOW REGENERATION IN THIS AREA.

NEXT FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE POSSIBLE WIND HEADLINES ON SATURDAY
AS DEEP SURFACE LOW REMAINS OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. WINDS TO NEAR
ADVISORY CRITERIA SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
COOL OFF SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BEING AT LEAST
10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID JULY.

.LONG TERM...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...SO WILL GO
WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION ATTM. MODELS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM CROSSING THE FA ON TUE. EXPECT A REBOUND OF TEMPS AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR MORE
-SHRA/-TSRA. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VRF CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST ND MOVE
EAST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

HOPPES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
537 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-111045-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
537 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM GRAND FORKS TO BEMIDJI. THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING MORE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY ALSO BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

VOELKER