Severe Thunderstorm Warning 470, NWS Atlanta, GA

000 
WWUS52 KFFC 222218
SVSFFC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
616 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

GAC063-121-222245-
/O.CON.KFFC.SV.W.0470.000000T0000Z-080722T2245Z/
CLAYTON GA-FULTON GA-
616 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL FULTON AND NORTHWESTERN CLAYTON COUNTIES...

AT 612 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZED
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
EAST POINT...MOVING EAST AT 6 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
ATLANTA...ATLANTA HARTSFIELD-JACKSON 
AIRPORT...RIVERDALE...HAPEVILLE...AND COLLEGE PARK.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT TUESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN
GEORGIA.

IF YOU SEE WIND DAMAGE...LARGE HAIL OR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...WAIT
UNTIL AFTER THE STORM HAS PASSED...AND THEN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 8 6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6.

LAT...LON 3378 8434 3355 8435 3355 8445 3355 8468
      3382 8447
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 286DEG 5KT 3367 8450

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
520 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL APPROACH NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI AND INTO TENNESSEE. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES. ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR WET MICROBURTS WITH
NAM FCST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS EVENING DEPICTING STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH CLASSIC INVERTED-V PROFILE SHOWING UP THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...SO ADDED MENTION OF DAMAGING WIND TO NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH 8 PM. AS WITH LAST NIGHT...EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY
WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS OUTFLOW PUSHES INTO
AREAS THAT RECEIVED LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES GEORGIA TOMORROW...EXPECTING BEST POPS WILL
BE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA FROM EARLY TO MID- AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO
CENTRAL GEORGIA LATER IN THE EVENING.

LEANED HEAVILY TOWARDS NAM FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS IT SEEMED
TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON CURRENT CONVECTION...AND GFS WAS
PLAGUED WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS AND DID NOT MATCH WELL
AT ALL WITH ONGOING CONVECTION. NAM/ECMWF SHOW A SECOND SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THURSDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY KEEPING
CONVECTION ACTIVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS YET AGAIN. FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY WENT BELOW MOS NUMBERS DUE TO EXPECTED
RAIN COOLED AIR IN NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT...AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH SEASONALLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
PLAINS...KEEPING GEORGIA IN NORTHWEST FLOW. GFS HAS ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHING GEORGIA ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
OVERALL...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP EVERY FEW DAYS AS DISTURBANCES
RIDE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THIS
EVENING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO GEORGIA FROM THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH GEORGIA
ON THURSDAY...CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING MAINLY WEST SIDE OF THE STATE SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT DEVELOPMENT
ELSEWHERE AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THIS EVENING. LEANING TOWARD GOING
WITH TEMPO THUNDER ATL METRO TAFS AND CSG UNTIL AROUND 02Z...
OTHERWISE VCTS ALL TAF SITES UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...DO
HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE PASS
MIDNIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE IN THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF T-STORM AREAS...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. HAZE/PATCHY
FOG MAY RESTRICT VSBYS 3 TO 5 MILES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MAY SEE TSTORMS DEVELOPMENT A BIT EARLIER WEDNESDAY WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRIFTING INTO NORTH GEORGIA. PLAN TO GO WITH VCTS NORTH TAF
SITES BY 16Z...18Z CENTRAL SECTIONS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 KTS
OR LESS (OUTSIDE OF T-STORMS AREAS) OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST TO WEST 7
TO 10 KTS WEDNESDAY...(GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE IN STORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON).

049
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  90  69  89  69 /  40  30  40  30  20
ATLANTA         72  87  71  89  71 /  40  40  30  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     64  84  65  82  61 /  40  50  30  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    68  89  67  91  66 /  40  50  20  20  10
COLUMBUS        73  90  71  92  73 /  20  30  40  40  20
GAINESVILLE     70  87  69  88  70 /  40  50  30  20  10
MACON           72  91  71  92  72 /  20  30  40  40  20
ROME            69  87  69  92  69 /  40  50  20  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  68  88  69  88  67 /  30  40  40  20  10
VIDALIA         72  92  70  91  71 /  20  30  40  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MSR/TDP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1106 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-231215-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1106 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE WILL CONTINUED OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE STATE.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE FAVORED PLACE
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALL OF NORTH
GEORGIA BETWEEN 2PM AND 10PM.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE AREA WITH MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION. WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE STATE LEFT OVER FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THEY SHOULD ACT AS A CATALYST FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AROUND TODAY.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY INDICES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CAPES EXPECTED IN THE 1500 TO 3000 RANGE AND LIFTED INDICES
AROUND MINUS TWO TO MINUS FIVE. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DECENT
MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE TO THE MID LEVELS SO AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD HAVE SUPPORT DURING THE PRIME HEATING OF
THE DAY. MOST THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
...HOWEVER A THUNDERSTORM MAY PULSE BRIEFLY TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY
WIND AND POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
501 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

GAZ102-222130-
501 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN
IN STEWART COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 459 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM OMAHA TO WESTVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
16 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS STEWART COUNTY THROUGH 530 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH
OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE WESTVILLE...OMAHA...LUMPKIN AND PROVIDENCE
CANYON STATE PARK. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND OTHER LOW-LYING
AREAS.

LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS INDICATE NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES. RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD STAY INDOORS.
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES AND TELEPHONES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN
EMERGENCY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER
STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
510 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROCKMART                34.01N 85.05W
07/22/2008                   POLK               GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN FROM ROCKMART TO FISH
            CREEK.

&&

MSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
539 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             DOUGLASVILLE            33.75N 84.75W
07/22/2008  E1.00 INCH       DOUGLAS            GA   PUBLIC

&&

MSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
546 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SUMMERVILLE             34.48N 85.35W
07/22/2008                   CHATTOOGA          GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            10-15 TREES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY.

&&

MSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
551 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND GST     SUMMERVILLE             34.48N 85.35W
07/22/2008  M63 MPH          CHATTOOGA          GA   PUBLIC

&&

MSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
556 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     HAIL             ELLIJAY                 34.69N 84.48W
07/22/2008  E1.00 INCH       GILMER             GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

SKONARIK