Severe Thunderstorm Warning 458, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
313 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL APPROACH NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI AND INTO TENNESSEE. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES. ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR WET MICROBURTS WITH
NAM FCST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS EVENING DEPICTING STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH CLASSIC INVERTED-V PROFILE SHOWING UP THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...SO ADDED MENTION OF DAMAGING WIND TO NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH 8 PM. AS WITH LAST NIGHT...EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY
WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS OUTFLOW PUSHES INTO
AREAS THAT RECEIVED LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES GEORGIA TOMORROW...EXPECTING BEST POPS WILL
BE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA FROM EARLY TO MID- AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO
CENTRAL GEORGIA LATER IN THE EVENING.

LEANED HEAVILY TOWARDS NAM FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS IT SEEMED
TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON CURRENT CONVECTION...AND GFS WAS
PLAGUED WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS AND DID NOT MATCH WELL
AT ALL WITH ONGOING CONVECTION. NAM/ECMWF SHOW A SECOND SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THURSDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY KEEPING
CONVECTION ACTIVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS YET AGAIN. FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY WENT BELOW MOS NUMBERS DUE TO EXPECTED
RAIN COOLED AIR IN NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT...AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH SEASONALLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
PLAINS...KEEPING GEORGIA IN NORTHWEST FLOW. GFS HAS ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHING GEORGIA ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
OVERALL...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP EVERY FEW DAYS AS DISTURBANCES
RIDE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THIS
EVENING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO GEORGIA FROM THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH GEORGIA
ON THURSDAY...CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  90  69  89  69 /  40  30  40  30  20
ATLANTA         72  87  71  89  71 /  40  40  30  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     64  84  65  82  61 /  40  50  30  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    68  89  67  91  66 /  40  50  20  20  10
COLUMBUS        73  90  71  92  73 /  20  30  40  40  20
GAINESVILLE     70  87  69  88  70 /  40  50  30  20  10
MACON           72  91  71  92  72 /  20  30  40  40  20
ROME            69  87  69  92  69 /  40  50  20  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  68  88  69  88  67 /  30  40  40  20  10
VIDALIA         72  92  70  91  71 /  20  30  40  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MSR/TDP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1106 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-231215-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1106 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE WILL CONTINUED OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE STATE.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE FAVORED PLACE
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALL OF NORTH
GEORGIA BETWEEN 2PM AND 10PM.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE AREA WITH MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION. WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE STATE LEFT OVER FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THEY SHOULD ACT AS A CATALYST FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AROUND TODAY.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY INDICES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CAPES EXPECTED IN THE 1500 TO 3000 RANGE AND LIFTED INDICES
AROUND MINUS TWO TO MINUS FIVE. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DECENT
MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE TO THE MID LEVELS SO AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD HAVE SUPPORT DURING THE PRIME HEATING OF
THE DAY. MOST THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
...HOWEVER A THUNDERSTORM MAY PULSE BRIEFLY TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY
WIND AND POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
236 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

GAZ002-221900-
236 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS IN
WALKER COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 232 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER LINWOOD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 9 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WALKER COUNTY THROUGH 300 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE DAVIS CROSSROADS...CEDAR GROVE...NOBLE...LINWOOD...LA
FAYETTE AND NAOMI. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS.

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
241 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

GAZ078-089-221930-
241 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS IN
MUSCOGEE AND HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 238 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF MULBERRY GROVE...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
MUSCOGEE AND HARRIS COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE MULBERRY GROVE...FORTSON AND CATAULA.
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
311 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

GAZ104-222000-
311 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS IN
SUMTER COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 306 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER AMERICUS...MOVING SOUTH AT 9 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS SUMTER
COUNTY THROUGH 400 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS
INCLUDE ARLES...AMERICUS...SUMTER...LESLIE AND DE SOTO.

THESE WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS AROUND.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
340 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             5 NW SUMMERVILLE        34.53N 85.41W
07/22/2008  E0.75 INCH       CHATTOOGA          GA   PUBLIC

            PENNY AND DIME SIZED HAIL FROM 250 - 310 PM EDT. TWO
            TREES DOWN.

&&

SKONARIK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
352 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COLUMBUS                32.47N 84.97W
07/22/2008                   MUSCOGEE           GA   PUBLIC

            MINOR ROOF DAMAGE, NUMEROUS SIGNS AND TRAFFIC LIGHTS
            DOWNED, AND STREET FLOODING ALONG MANCHESTER EXPRESSWAY.

&&

SKONARIK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
405 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COLUMBUS                32.47N 84.97W
07/22/2008                   MUSCOGEE           GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            AT LEAST TEN TREES DOWN STRETCHING FROM COLUMBUS TO
            SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY.

&&

SKONARIK