Severe Thunderstorm Warning 275, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
853 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

UPDATE...
SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH GRADUALLY BEING TRIMMED DOWN FROM THE NORTH
AS LINE OF CONVECTION PUSHES SOUTH OF I-20. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
GEORGIA...AND HAVE RAISED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THOSE AREAS.
TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PRIMARY CONCERN IS CHANCE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STORMS FIRING UP ALONG COLD FRONT IN TN AND XTRM NRN AL
BUT HAVE ALSO SEEN SVR STORM DEVELOP JUST EAST OF WARRENTON. COULD
SEE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND CU FIELD IN CENTRAL GA EVEN
THOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NOT AS WELL DEFINED. AXIS OF GREATEST
INSTABILITY ALONG BROAD SWATH ALSO CENTERED ALONG I-20 WHERE
MLCAPE VALUES 1500-2000 J/KG. WILL LIKELY SEE TWO AREAS OF STORMS
...ONE IN FAR NRN GA NEAR COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF CLOUDS. PRIMARY THREAT IS LARGE HAIL UP TO 2.5 INCHES
IN DIAMETER. DAMAGING WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT NOT AS LIKELY.
TORNADO THREAT SOMEWHAT LOW ATTM AS LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY HAS NOT INCREASED AS MUCH AS MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATED. IF STORM BECOMES SUPERCELLULAR WITH HIGHLY DEVIANT
RIGHT MOTION...COULD SEE STRONGLY ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND ISOLATED
TORNADO ESP IN CENTRAL GA.

FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME TO SAG INTO THE STATE TONIGHT. VERTICAL
MOTION PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS WEAK SHORT WAVE SWEEPS THROUGH. MAV
GUIDANCE POPS AND GFS/WRF QPF NOT VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL.
ONLY SMALL POPS FOR TSRA ALONG FAR SRN ZONES FOR EARLY WED BEFORE
CLEARING OUT.

NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR TSRA ON THURSDAY AS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
RETURNS. ATYPICAL UPPER PATTERN WITH TWO LARGE CUTOFF LOWS...ONE
OVER WRN U.S. AND THE OTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT LARGE SCALE PATTERN WITH SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
AS WRN LOW TAKING ITS SWEET TIME TO MOVE EAST WHILE THE NE LOW
DRIFTS SOUTH. HOWEVER...GFS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN NAM WITH
POPS AND PRECIP AMOUNTS ON THURS NIGHT AND FRI. HAVE BACKED OFF ON
POPS SOME. INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY WEEK.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY STAGNANT WITH BLOCKING FEATURES MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY.  ANOTHER FLY IN THE PICTURE FOR THE LONG TERM IS
POSSIBLE TROPICAL FEED OF MOISTURE MOVING IN LATER IN THE WEEK.
GOING FCST SEEMS PRETTY CLOSE TO LATEST MODEL PROGS. NO GOOD
REASON TO CHANGE ATTM.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY LITTLE MORE THAN
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 5 THOUSAND FEET OR HIGHER THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME BETWEEN THE PASSAGE
OF THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE FRONT
WHEN WINDS MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR FOG FORMATION. LOOKING FOR
VISIBILITIES IN THE MVFR RANGE AT A FEW NORTHERN AIRPORTS DURING
THAT TIME. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKING FOR NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS
OR RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY AS DRIER AIR PUSHED IN ON NORTHWEST
FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          60  82  52  84  60 /  30  10   5  20  20
ATLANTA         60  80  60  81  64 /  30  10   5  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     55  76  47  75  54 /  20  10  10  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    56  80  52  81  59 /  20  10  10  30  20
COLUMBUS        67  86  60  86  67 /  20  10   5  40  20
GAINESVILLE     59  79  53  81  60 /  30  10  10  30  20
MACON           63  87  55  89  66 /  30  10   5  30  20
ROME            56  80  55  80  62 /  20  10  10  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  58  80  53  82  62 /  30  10   5  30  20
VIDALIA         67  90  58  89  67 /  30  20  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

13/15/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1025 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-211000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1025 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA LATE TUESDAY EVENING WILL MOVE
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA BY DAYBREAK.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CARROLLTON TO EATONTON TO
WARRENTON.

.DISCUSSION...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS BEEN
PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH GEORGIA TUESDAY EVENING. THE AIR OVER CENTRAL
GEORGIA REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH LIFTED INDICES OF MINUS 3
TO MINUS 5. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED WARM UNSTABLE AIR
INTO THE LINE...SO THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS
THEY CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHWARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA SATURDAY...AND ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS IN CENTRAL GEORGIA ARE REQUESTED TO PASS REPORTS OF WIND
DAMAGE OR HAIL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMERGENCY MANAGERS
IN CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD MONITOR THE SITUATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
943 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MADISON                 33.58N 83.48W
05/20/2008                   MORGAN             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES ARE DOWN THROUGHOUT THE
            CITY.

0830 PM     LIGHTNING        MADISON                 33.58N 83.48W
05/20/2008                   MORGAN             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LIGHTNING CAUSED A GRASS FIRE

&&

MSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
947 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0917 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EDGEHILL                33.15N 82.63W
05/20/2008                   GLASCOCK           GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SEVERAL TREES WERE DOWN IN THE EDGE HILL AREA

0917 PM     HAIL             EDGEHILL                33.15N 82.63W
05/20/2008  E1.75 INCH       GLASCOCK           GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

&&

MSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1003 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     HAIL             4 NE THOMASTON          32.93N 84.28W
05/20/2008  E0.88 INCH       UPSON              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NICKLE SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT THE THOMASTON AIRPORT.

&&

MSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1016 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1002 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NE THOMASTON          32.93N 84.28W
05/20/2008  M61 MPH          UPSON              GA   AWOS

0820 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W GREENSBORO          33.57N 83.20W
05/20/2008                   GREENE             GA   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS TREES ARE DOWN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
            CITY...INCLUDING ON THAT FELL ON A HOUSE.

&&

MSR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1019 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

GAZ085-086-210245-
1019 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS IN
JOHNSON AND EMANUEL COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM EDT...

AT 1018 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM GARFIELD TO SCOTT...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.  THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZED HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER
STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1028 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0908 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FLAT ROCK               33.24N 83.32W
05/20/2008                   PUTNAM             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES WERE DOWN IN THE FLAT ROCK AREA.

0955 PM     TSTM WND DMG     THOMASTON               32.89N 84.33W
05/20/2008                   UPSON              GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWERLINE DOWN AROUND THOMASTON.

0958 PM     TSTM WND DMG     YATESVILLE              32.91N 84.14W
05/20/2008                   UPSON              GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWERLINES WERE KNOCKED DOWN AROUND
            YATESVILLE.

&&

MSR