Severe Thunderstorm Warning 132, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1148 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TONIGHT
CONTINUING TO USE TRENDS FROM 21Z TO 04Z...00Z 925 TO
200 HPA MAPS AND FCST SOLUTIONS AVAILABLE AT HAND AS
OF THIS WRITING. AREA OF RAIN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM VCNTY DRT TO NORTHWEST OF SAT AND WEST OF AUS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT...SO CONTINUED GOOD CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. KEPT CURRENT TORNADO WATCH
FOR THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA THRU 07Z AND EXPECT
SOME OF THE CONVECTION FURTHER WEST TO MOVE INTO THIS
AREA LATER TONIGHT PER COORDINATION WITH SPC AND LATEST
SOLUTIONS FROM NAM12 AND WEATHER TRENDS THAT CONTINUE
SINCE LAST FALL ON HOW RAINFALL PATTERNS MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. KEPT RAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND THEN KEPT TRENDS OF RAIN
EVOLVING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH ON FRIDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD AND
LINGERING TROF TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST COULD BE ENOUGH
TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FORECAST SOLUTIONS AND
TRENDS SHOW MORE STABLE PATTERN SLOWLY EVOLVING FROM THE
WEST IN A SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK TIME
FRAME. MORE STABLE PATTERN APPEARS TO CONTINUE TO THE
MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008/

DISCUSSION...
ADJUSTED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBILITIES PER MESO TRENDS FROM
21Z TO 01Z AND INPUT FROM VARIOUS SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS AND
00Z 925 TO 200 HPA MAPS.  AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT.  SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEVERE.  FURTHER SOUTH...AN AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF EAGLE PASS TO SOUTH OF
SAN ANTONIO WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EASTWARD IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.  BELIEVE THE CONVECTION WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AS IT EVOLVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS AND HAIL...THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

WILL CONTINUE WITH TRENDS FROM FORECASTS FOR CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVOLVING FURTHER SOUTH
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
FORMING OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008/

AVIATION...ORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS
WILL AFFECT THE I-35 TAFS AFTER 04-05Z. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH SCT-
BKN CU AT 3-5 THSD FEET...WITH CB BECOMING WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH
THESE STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008/

DISCUSSION...
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DESTABILIZED WITH HEATING TODAY...WITH LITTLE-
TO-NO CAP REMAINING AND SURFACE-BASED CAPES BETWEEN 3000-4000
J/KG. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY INITIATED ALONG THE DRYLINE AND OVER
THE BURRO MOUNTAINS AND WILL MOVE EAST IN THE STEERING FLOW THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. OUR
AREA IS ONCE AGAIN IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA OF THE SPC DAY1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT
(ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE). RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT...
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND INTO OKLAHOMA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY AND WILL
INTERACT WITH REMAINING GULF MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF. CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL BE CARRIED SOUTH WITH THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL POOL ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD AS A 2ND UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH
INTO NW MEXICO AND CUTS-OFF. AT SOME TIME BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
MONDAY...THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT OUT OF MEXICO AND MOVE ACROSS OUR
AREA...ALTHOUGH IN A MUCH WEAKENED STATE. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE BEST SHOT AT PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS...WHERE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE GREATEST.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES THANKS TO THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS AND CLOUD COVER.
HOWEVER...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND WELL CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              64  81  61  81  59 /  70  50  10  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  64  82  61  80  54 /  70  50  10  -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           65  90  64  79  62 /  50  10  40  30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  86  62  80  58 /  60  40  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

08/03

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
935 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0933 PM     HAIL             1 N ROUND ROCK          30.53N  97.67W
05/14/2008  M1.00 INCH       WILLIAMSON         TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00147

JPB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
958 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0953 PM     TSTM WND GST     PEARSALL                28.89N  99.09W
05/14/2008  M72 MPH          FRIO               TX   STORM CHASER

            OUTFLOW BOUNDARY

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00148

JPB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1012 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     HAIL             4 SE HUTTO              30.50N  97.49W
05/14/2008  M0.75 INCH       WILLIAMSON         TX   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00150

JPB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1023 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1016 PM     HAIL             1 NW COUPLAND           30.48N  97.40W
05/14/2008  M1.00 INCH       WILLIAMSON         TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00151

JPB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1123 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     TSTM WND GST     KERRVILLE               30.04N  99.14W
05/14/2008  M67 MPH          KERR               TX   AWOS

            KERRVILLE AWOS REPORTED 58 KT WIND GUST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00152

PAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1144 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

TXZ172-188>192-206-150515-
BLANCO-BURNET-COMAL-GILLESPIE-HAYS-KENDALL-TRAVIS-
1144 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTING
BLANCO...BURNET...COMAL...GILLESPIE...HAYS...KENDALL AND TRAVIS
COUNTIES...

AT 1141 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR LUCHENBACH TO NEAR ROUND MOUNTAIN
MOVING EAST AT 38 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  JOHNSON CITY BY 1150 PM CDT.
  PEDERNALES FALLS STATE PARK BY 1205 AM CDT.

MARBLE SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.