Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
705 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

.AVIATION...ORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS
WILL AFFECT THE I-35 TAFS AFTER 04-05Z. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH SCT-
BKN CU AT 3-5 THSD FEET...WITH CB BECOMING WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH
THESE STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008/

DISCUSSION...
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DESTABILIZED WITH HEATING TODAY...WITH LITTLE-
TO-NO CAP REMAINING AND SURFACE-BASED CAPES BETWEEN 3000-4000
J/KG. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY INITIATED ALONG THE DRYLINE AND OVER
THE BURRO MOUNTAINS AND WILL MOVE EAST IN THE STEERING FLOW THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. OUR
AREA IS ONCE AGAIN IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA OF THE SPC DAY1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT
(ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE). RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT...
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND INTO OKLAHOMA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY AND WILL
INTERACT WITH REMAINING GULF MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF. CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL BE CARRIED SOUTH WITH THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL POOL ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD AS A 2ND UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH
INTO NW MEXICO AND CUTS-OFF. AT SOME TIME BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
MONDAY...THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT OUT OF MEXICO AND MOVE ACROSS OUR
AREA...ALTHOUGH IN A MUCH WEAKENED STATE. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE BEST SHOT AT PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS...WHERE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE GREATEST.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES THANKS TO THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS AND CLOUD COVER.
HOWEVER...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND WELL CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              68  81  61  81  59 /  50  50  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  82  61  80  54 /  40  50  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           69  90  64  79  62 /  20  10  40  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  86  62  80  58 /  50  40  20  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

08/03

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
521 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             4 SE QUEMADO            28.90N 100.59W
05/14/2008  M1.00 INCH       MAVERICK           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            JUST SOUTH OF NORMANDY ON HWY 277

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00124

JPB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
524 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             4 SE QUEMADO            28.91N 100.58W
05/14/2008  M0.70 INCH       MAVERICK           TX   COCORAHS

            14.9 NW EAGLE PASS. 5 MIN DURATION. NO DAMAGE

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00125

JPB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
715 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             4 W LLANO               30.76N  98.74W
05/14/2008  M1.00 INCH       LLANO              TX   PUBLIC

            HAIL STARTED 703 PM

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00126

JPB

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