Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
322 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE DOLLY
WILL REMAIN OVER THE BORDERLAND TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE
SLOWLY DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS ARE GRADUALLY REDUCED. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NORMAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WELL DEFINED CLOSED CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH OLD DOLLY PASSED
RIGHT OVER EL PASO THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
ONE TO TWO INCHES COVERED EL PASO COUNTY WITH A FEW READINGS OF
THREE TO THREE AND A HALF INCHES MEASURED DURING THE MORNING.
HEAVY RAIN CORE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN OTERO COUNTY WAS
WEAKENING. HOWEVER...SURFACE HEATING WAS CONTRIBUTING TO
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
ENTIRE BROAD CIRCULATION DOMAIN (BASICALLY THE EPZ CWA). WILL LET
FFA CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY THE WAY...PW OF 1.84
INCHES ON 12Z EPZ SOUNDING IS PROBABLY NEAR A RECORD FOR EL PASO.

DID NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO PEER AT MODELS...BUT LOWERED MAX TEMPS
NEXT TWO DAYS EVEN THOUGH STRONG WARMING TREND STILL REFLECTED.
STANDARD MONSOON POPS WERE RETAINED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY FRIDAY IN CASE THE 12Z GFS IS CORRECT IN
BRINGING OLD DOLLY BACK OUR WAY UNDER UPPER HIGH THAT BY THEN WILL
HAVE DEVELOPED TO OUR NORTH. AS ONE FORECASTER HERE NOTED...SHE
MUST LIKE OUR CHILIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VALID 27/0000Z - 28/0000Z
PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE STILL REMAINS IN THE AREA...BUT CEILINGS
HAVE STARTED TO COME UP NOW AS THE CENTER OF DOLLY PULLS AWAY AND
THINGS BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE... WHICH SHOULD BE THE
CHARACTER OF PRECIP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MODELS NOT HANDLING SITUATION VERY WELL ESPECIALLY AT THE
SURFACE...MAKING MOS WINDS VIRTUALLY USELESS.  MORE OR LESS
PROJECTED EXPECTED PATH OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BASED OBSERVATIONS
AND ON MODEL TIMING OF UPPER VORT CENTER.  LEANING MORE TOWARDS
ECMWF AND U OF AZ WRF WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE WITH OBS.  12Z GFS
APPEARS TOO SLOW.  CAVEAT HERE IS THAT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
BOUND TO OPEN UP SOMETIME TONIGHT... SO WHILE I DO BRING WINDS TO
THE WNW THIS EVENING AT KELP... THEY SHOULD BACK AROUND TO THE SW
TOWARDS MORNING.

CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR-VFR WITH TEMPO PERIODS OF IFR IN HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  EXPECT MORE THUNDER TOMORROW
ALONG/EAST OF RIO GRANDE AS TROPICAL AIRMASS MODIFIES.  BEST CHANCE
THUNDER OVERNIGHT WILL BE AT DMN.  A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT IF WINDS
GO SLACK OVERNIGHT A FEW PLACES MAY SEE FOG BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A SFC GRADIENT TO KEEP BL MIXED ENOUGH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WX ISSUES ANTICIPATED AS WIDESPREAD TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS
MORE OR LESS SATURATED THE AREA.  THINGS WILL RETURN TO THE NORMAL
MONSOONAL PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 69  83  70  89  72 /  70  60  50  30  20
SIERRA BLANCA TX        61  83  63  88  65 /  50  50  50  50  40
LAS CRUCES              67  83  68  88  70 /  70  60  50  30  20
ALAMOGORDO              65  82  66  88  69 /  50  40  50  30  20
CLOUDCROFT              50  66  51  69  50 /  50  40  50  40  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   66  83  66  87  68 /  70  60  40  30  20
SILVER CITY             60  76  61  79  62 /  60  30  30  30  20
DEMING                  68  85  68  89  68 /  70  50  40  30  20
LORDSBURG               67  87  67  90  68 /  50  30  30  30  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR NMZ022>025-
     030>032.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ055-056.

&&

01/25 FAUSETT/HARDIMAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
607 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2008

TXZ055-270115-
EL PASO TX-
607 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2008

...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF EL PASO COUNTY...

THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE EL PASO AREA BUT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE
SYSTEM. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAIN SHOWERS IS MOVING EAST ACROSS JUAREZ MEXICO AND WILL ENTER EL
PASO COUNTY FROM THE WEST. RADAR IS INDICATING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH THESE STORMS. RAINFALL RATES OF OVER AN INCH AN HOUR IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CITY OF EL PASO AND
THE ENTIRE MISSION VALLEY. AFFECTED WILL BE THE TOWNS OF
SOCORRO...HORIZON CITY...SAN ELIZARIO...FABENS AND...TORNILLO.

ONE-HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER AREAS
THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A LOT OF RAIN. SATURATED GROUND WILL
CREATE RAPID RUNOFF. FLOODING OF STREETS...ARROYOS...DRAINAGES...AND
LOW SPOTS IS POSSIBLE.

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF WATER BEGINS TO RISE...AND DO NOT DRIVE
THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

TAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
609 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2008

NMZ024-270215-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ALAMOGORDO
609 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2008

AT 600 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN OTERO COUNTY. THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING RAINFALL AT
RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...WITH TOTAL STORM RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF OVER THREE INCHES BASED ON RADAR ESTIMATES. HEAVIEST RAINS ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OROGRANDE FROM THE WEST.

MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT LOW VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN ALONG HIGHWAY 54
BETWEEN THE TEXAS STATE LINE AND TULAROSA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND ON OTHER AREA ROADS. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS IS LIKELY
AND THERE MAY BE WATER FLOWING ACROSS ROADS IN LOW LYING AREAS. NEVER
TRY TO DRIVE ACROSS WATER COVERED ROADS...TURN AROUND AND SEEK
ALTERNATE ROUTES OF TRAVEL.

PARK