Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2008
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Kansas City, MO
NWS Kansas City, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Apr 10, 2008, 5:13 PM CDT for Johnson County, Miami County, Kansas; Cass County, Jackson County, Missouri. It was in force for 47 min. 6 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 10, 2008, 5:13 PM CDT (22:13 UTC)
- Expired
- Apr 10, 2008, 6:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 47 min
- Issued by
- NWS Kansas City, MO
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
Counties Johnson County, KS, Miami County, KS, Cass County, MO, Jackson County, MO
The radar
The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 25 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 5:13 PM CDT | HAIL 0.88 | Blue Springs, MO | |
| Apr 10, 5:18 PM CDT | HAIL 1 | Lees Summit, MO | |
| Apr 10, 5:32 PM CDT | HAIL 1 | 2 Ne Lees Summit, MO | DIME TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL THAT COVERED THE GROUND. |
| Apr 10, 5:40 PM CDT | HAIL 0.75 | Blue Springs, MO | |
| Apr 10, 5:44 PM CDT | HAIL 0.75 | 1 E Blue Springs, MO | 35 TO 40 MPH WINDS ALSO OBSERVED. |
| Apr 10, 5:47 PM CDT | HAIL 1 | 1 N Blue Springs, MO |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
Did it verify
Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 3 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 5 minutes after it went out.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The watch it was issued in
The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.
| Issued | Product | Office | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2:28 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 7 hr |
| Jan 7, 1:52 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | 146 days |
The nearest sounding before it
Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 12:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 97 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 535 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 58 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 188 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 182 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WUUS53 KEAX 102214 SVREAX KSC091-121-MOC037-095-102300- /O.NEW.KEAX.SV.W.0016.080410T2213Z-080410T2300Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 513 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS NORTHEASTERN MIAMI COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS NORTHWESTERN CASS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI JACKSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI * UNTIL 600 PM CDT * AT 508 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF LOUISBURG...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... BELTON AND 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF RAYMORE BY 525 PM CDT. GRANDVIEW AND LEAWOOD BY 530 PM CDT. 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF LEES SUMMIT BY 535 PM CDT. RAYTOWN BY 540 PM CDT. INDEPENDENCE...7 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAKE TAPAWINGO AND 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF BLUE SPRINGS BY 550 PM CDT. THE TOWNS OF STANLEY...UNITY VILLAGE AND MAYWOOD ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. AT 510 PM 65 MPH WINDS WERO MOVE EAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHTER. .LONG TERM...LONG TERM IS STARTING TO LOOK POTENTIALLY A BIT MORE INTERESTING. MONDAY STARTS OUT WITH THE RIDGE STARTING TO MOVE EAST AND A START OF SOUTHWEST FLOW. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MONDAY FORECAST AND LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING IN THE NEXT SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF AK AS A DEEP TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY AND KEEPING A BROAD TROUGH IN ITS WAKE FOR MORE SYSTEMS TO ROTATE THROUGH FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS...ESPECIALLY THE 10/12Z RUN. EVEN THE GEM IS GOING THIS WAY NOW. AS A RESULT I LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND WINDS...AND BUMPED UP A LITTLE THE GHOST POPS. MY CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN WHAT SCENARIO WILL DEVELOP AS THE THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES AND BIG MODEL CHANGES IN SOME MODELS. IF THE GEM AND ECMWF KEEP WITH TRENDING TOWARDS THE GFS THEN BIGGER CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL RESULT. && .AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS WILL REMAIN THE TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST. EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE VARIABLE FROM 340-040 IN DIRECTION AND GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS UNTIL 03Z OR 04Z THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL STAY NORTH AND MOSTLY BELOW 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. SAME PATTERN FRIDAY. WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE NORTH AROUND 16Z AND SHIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DIFFERENCE WILL BE LOWER WINDS SPEEDS...10 TO 12 KNOTS. SKIES WILL STAY ESSENTIALLY CLEAR THE ENTIRE TIME. FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET. FRIDAY WILL SEE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON BUT AT MUCH REDUCED SPEEDS COMPARED TO TODAY. && .VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NV...NONE. AZ...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ HARRISON/JACQUES HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
3 follow-up statements
000 WWUS53 KEAX 102231 SVSEAX SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 530 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008 KSC091-121-MOC037-095-102300- /O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-080410T2300Z/ JOHNSON KS-MIAMI KS-CASS MO-JACKSON MO- 530 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MIAMI AND SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...AND JACKSON AND NORTHWESTERN CASS COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 600 PM CDT... AT 527 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LEES SUMMIT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... LAKE TAPAWINGO BY 535 PM CDT. BLUE SPRINGS...GRAIN VALLEY AND 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF INDEPENDENCE BY 540 PM CDT. AT AROUND 525 PM CDT DIME SIZE HAIL BEEN REPORTED IN LEES SUMMIT WITH THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN MISSOURI. LAT...LON 3913 9450 3901 9420 3860 9458 3870 9484 TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 213DEG 46KT 3895 9438 $$ MJ
000 WWUS53 KEAX 102242 SVSEAX SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 542 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008 KSC091-121-MOC037-095-102300- /O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-080410T2300Z/ JOHNSON KS-MIAMI KS-CASS MO-JACKSON MO- 542 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MIAMI AND SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...AND JACKSON AND NORTHWESTERN CASS COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 600 PM CDT... AT 537 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED...PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE TAPAWINGO...OR NEAR BLUE SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF JACKSON... NORTHEASTERN MIAMI...NORTHWESTERN CASS AND SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES. AT 532 PM HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE IN DIAMETER HAS BEEN REPORTED JUST EAST OF UNITY VILLAGE WITH THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN MISSOURI. LAT...LON 3913 9450 3901 9420 3860 9458 3870 9484 TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 218DEG 45KT 3906 9426 $$ MJ
000 WWUS53 KEAX 102259 SVSEAX SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 558 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008 KSC091-121-MOC037-095-102307- /O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-080410T2300Z/ JOHNSON KS-MIAMI KS-CASS MO-JACKSON MO- 558 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008 ...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MIAMI AND SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...AND JACKSON AND NORTHWESTERN CASS COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL EXPIRE AT 600 PM CDT... AT 558 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN MISSOURI. LAT...LON 3913 9450 3901 9420 3860 9458 3870 9484 TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 218DEG 45KT 3921 9411 $$ MJ
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Apr 10, 3:34 PM CDT, 1 hour 39 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 10, 3:34 PM CDT, 1 hour 39 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
334 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008
.DISCUSSION...
FOR DISCUSSION ON ONGOING SVR WX THREAT AND SHORT TERM
DETAILS...PLEASE SEE ATTACHED PREVIOUS/MESOSCALE DISCUSSION BELOW
THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION.
FOR TONIGHT...UPR LVL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS KS/NE. WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...GIVEN HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THIS EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING EXPECTED FROM RISING
RIVERS. HOWEVER...THIS WATCH WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY THIS
EVENING ONCE RAINFALL DIMINISHES. IN ADDITION...SOME CONCERNS EXIST
FOR THE NECESSITY OF A WIND ADVISORY OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
TONIGHT. DRY MID-LVL AIR IS RAPIDLY WRAPPING INTO THE STORM SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTH WEST. INDICATIONS OF THIS HAPPENING ARE NOW EVIDENT
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA AS DEW POINTS HAVE
CRASHED INTO THE LOW 40S AND UPR 30S. ATTM IT APPEARS STRONGEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
WIND ADV CRITERIA.
CONDITIONS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY FEBRUARY THAN EARLY APRIL AS
RATHER COLD...OVERCAST...AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS PREVAIL BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY. IN FACT...IT DOESNT
APPEAR TO THAT SPRING LIKE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN UNTIL MONDAY AT
THE EARLIEST. SPEAKING OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...STORM SYSTEM WHICH
HAS BROUGHT RAIN TO THE AREA TODAY WILL ONLY SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AS VERTICALLY STACKED UPR LOW
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...LARGE TROWAL WILL
WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WARM AIR ALOFT WILL
PROMOTE WIDESPREAD OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SCATTERED PRECIPITATION. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
TO EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA...GIVEN TRACK OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE
AND CURRENTLY PROGGED OMEGA FIELDS. SOUNDINGS POINT TO SNOW BEING
THE PRIMARY WX TYPE OVER THE NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES...WITH
PERHAPS A DUSTING TO LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NW
COUNTIES. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...FEEL A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION
COULD BE POSSIBLE AS SFC WARM LAYER REMAINS 1500-2000 FT THICK. AS
SECONDARY VORT MAX ROTATES AROUND THE UPR LOW SATURDAY...SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...AS H850 AIR
SOME -6C TO -8C WILL WORK SOUTHWARD. COMBINE THIS WITH OVERCAST
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIME WHATSOEVER. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS USELESS IN THESE TYPES OF SITUATIONS...AS THEY REMAIN
HEAVILY BIASED TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY ATTM. FOR NOW WILL SEE MAX TS
SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FRI/SAT ONLY IN THE UPR 30S
TO LOWER 40S. TO ADD INSULT TO INJURY...WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY
GUSTY ON FRIDAY AS TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PASSES OVERHEAD.
DESPITE DECENT MIXING TO H85 TOMORROW AFTN...WINDS ALOFT ARE ONLY
BETWEEN 20-40 KNOTS THEREFORE FEEL WND ADV WILL NOT BE NEEDED ATTM.
WILL ALLOW NEXT SHIFT TO REEVALUATE THESE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER WIND
CHILLS WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS....WITH WIND CHILLS WELL INTO THE 20S
IN THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.
OTHER CONCERN IN THE NEXT 3 DAYS WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES. DESPITE
AMPLE CLOUD COVER FEEL LOWS WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN THE NW
CORNER FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES BELOW 32F
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST AND SFC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. DEPENDANT ON THE AMOUNT OF GREEN
UP...THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THESE TIME PERIODS. HOWEVER...EVEN THOUGH IT IS GOING TO BE
COLD...WE ARE STILL IN A CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL TIME FOR OUR LAST
FROST/FREEZE IN THIS AREA.
A LONG AWAITED BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL MOVE IN ON
SUNDAY...AS LONG WAVE RIDGING SLIDES INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP
THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...TEMPERING OUR WARM UP AND KEEPING
READINGS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. HOWEVER...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
APPEAR TO BE DRY AT THIS TIME. AS MID-LVL RIDGE SLIDES
EAST...LOW-LVL THERMAL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST AS WELL. WITH DECENT
MIXING EXPECTED EACH DAY...TRUE SPRING LIKE WEATHER WITH HIGH IN THE
MIDDLE 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY. NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS TO
SLIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY...DROPPING A WEAK COOL
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DRY
WEATHER AS BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
DUX
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1200 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008/
...MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
THE EVOLUTION OF THE THREAT AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION IS STILL
SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR FOR THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. THE THREAT IS
HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING THAT CAN BE
REALIZED IN THE VICINITY OF ANY BOUNDARY.
CURRENTLY...A SURFACE OCCLUSION WAS NOTED BTWN SLN AND HUT IN CNTRL
KS WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OKLA. A WARM FRONT WAS ALSO MOVING NORTH AND HAS MADE IT
TO ABOUT THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN WEST CENTRAL MO.
THE LATEST NAM AND RUC SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY NE INTO XTRM NERN KS WITH THE WARM FRONT MAKING IT TO ABOUT
STJ BY 00Z THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...IN THE WARM SECTOR...THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT STG SSW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL SURGE INTO THE SRN AND
ERN CWA BY LATE THIS AFTN. THIS COINCEDENT WITH THE STG H3 JET AND
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CURRENTLY SURGING NE TWD SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND
NERN OKLAHOMA.
THE FIRST CONCERN IS THE THREAT OF LOW TOP SUPERCELLS FOR EXTREME
NERN KS AND NWRN MO. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE NOTED TO THE SW
OF EMP KS WITH A STEADY NE PROGRESS OF THE CLEARING LINE. BY LATE
THIS AFTN...THE STG BULK SFC-6KM SHEAR WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SRN
AND ERN CWA WITH WEAKER UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOTED NEAR THE WARM
FRONT IN NWRM MO. LOCALLY BACK WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LEAD
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW TOP SUPERCELLS IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
EXISTS. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT THE FCST SOUNDINGS WILL
BE UNCAPPED WITH ONLY UPPER 50S TO BREAK THE WEAK INVERSION. SBCAPES
AROUND 400-500 J/KG IN COMBINATION WITH LOCALIZED ELEVATED BOUNDARY
LAYER HELICITIES MAY ENOUGH FOR LOW TOP SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THE
THREAT WILL BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED IN A NARROW CORRIDOR IN THE VICINITY
OF THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN 3PM AND 8 PM. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
DEVELOPMENT IS 25 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM STJ TO BETHANY.
FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...THE MAIN CONCERN IS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WHICH WILL BE PRESENT.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WRE NOTED IN EXTREME SERN KS AND
NERN OK...IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND MID LVL DRY SLOT.
SBCAPES WITHIN THIS REGION WERE LESS THAN 500 J/KG WITH THE STG
SHEAR LIKELY INHIBITING STG DEVELOPMENT. THE BOUNDARY IN NERN
OKLAHOMA WILL SURGE NE WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
QUITE WEAK. IN ADDITION...MODELS SUGGEST ONLY CHANNELD VORTICITY
WITHIN THE REGION OF THE STG H3 JET. SBCAPES ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN
THE 500-750 J/KG RANGE FOR THE SERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA THIS AFTN
WITH LOCALIZED VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG IF ANY HEATING CAN BE
REALIZED. CLOUD COVER IN ADV OF THE BOUNDARY IS RATHER
THICK...THEREFORE ANY SUBSTANTIAL HEATING IS DOUBTFUL. ANOTHER
CONCERN IS THE RUC AND NAM MODELS TENDENCY TO GRADUALLY LOWER THE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FOR THE MUCH OF THE SRN
CWA BY 00Z. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO SLOW DRYING WITH SFC WINDS
VEERING TO THE SSW. THEREFORE...THE THREAT OF SEVERE FOR THIS REGION
IS LOW...BUT IF A STORM CAN MAINTAIN A STRONG UPDRAFT WITH SUCH
STRONG SHEAR...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THERE IS ALSO A NARROW WINDOW
FOR SUPERCELLS FOR THE EXTREME SERN CWA LATE THIS AFTN OR THIS
EVENING...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SEDALIA TO MOBERLY. AT
THIS TIME...THE THREAT APPEARS LOW.
AFT 00Z...THE SUPERCELL THREAT IN NWRN MO WILL BEGIN TO WANE WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE WRN CWA AFT 03Z...BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING
ALONG NIGHTIME COOLING WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE THREAT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...THE STORMS ARE NOTE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
DB
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...EXPECTING TO SEE THE BREAKS CURRENTLY IN
SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO THE TAF SITES. KSTJ MAY
NOT TOTALLY BREAK INTO A HIGHER DECK AS IT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW. WILL KEEP A NARROW WINDOW IN FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ALSO AT KSTJ WILL ADD SOME LIGHT RAIN
OVERNIGHT FOR WRAP AROUND OF LOW IFR CLOUDS BEHIND THE UPPER SYSTEM.
SOUNDINGS MAY EVEN GO COLD ENOUGH TO SUGGEST RAIN COULD MIX WITH
SNOW...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW.
PC
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM FRIDAY FOR MOZ006-MOZ007-MOZ008-MOZ015-
MOZ016-MOZ017-MOZ023-MOZ024-MOZ025-MOZ031-MOZ032-MOZ033-
MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ044-MOZ045-MOZ046-MOZ054.
KS...NONE.Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 10, 1:00 PM CDT, 4 hours 13 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 100 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008 KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054-111100- ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE- JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER- PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR- BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY- RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD- CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY- 100 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED IN CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO AROUND INTERSTATE 70. IN ADDITION...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS NOTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING TO A ST JOSEPH TO BETHANY LINE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS REGION WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE SUPERCELLS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM ST JOSEPH TO BETHANY. THIS THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITHIN THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO END BY 10 PM. FOR THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SURGE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE SEVERITY DEPENDENT UPON THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING. AT THE PRESENT TIME...THE SHEAR MAY BE TOO STRONG FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...IF LOCALIZED POCKETS OF SUBSTANTIAL HEATING DOES DEVELOP...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THERE IS ALSO A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SEDALIA TO MOBERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE THREAT APPEARS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE SATURATED SOIL...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT WITH NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT LATER TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BY FRIDAY MORNING....COLDER AIR WILL BE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...AIR ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS NORTHEAST KANSAS FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UNDER ONE HALF INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL CHANCES RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION FOR REPORTS OF FLOODING MAY BE NEEDED TODAY. SPOTTER ACTIVATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DB
In the hours before
Local storm report, Apr 10, 4:26 PM CDT, 47 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
426 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0425 PM HAIL KANSAS CITY 39.12N 94.55W
04/10/2008 E0.75 INCH JACKSON MO PUBLIC
&&
SFORTINLocal storm report, Apr 10, 4:43 PM CDT, 30 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
443 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0430 PM HAIL 1 E RENICK 39.34N 92.39W
04/10/2008 E1.25 INCH RANDOLPH MO BROADCAST MEDIA
HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL JUST EAST OF RENNICK...RELAYED BY
WFO LSX
&&
DUXLocal storm report, Apr 10, 4:55 PM CDT, 18 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
455 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0453 PM HAIL 1 S STANLEY 38.84N 94.65W
04/10/2008 E0.88 INCH JOHNSON KS EMERGENCY MNGR
NICKEL SIZE HAIL AT INTERSECTION OF 167TH STREET AND 69
HWY
&&
DUXLocal storm report, Apr 10, 5:01 PM CDT, 12 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
501 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0458 PM HAIL 4 SE KANSAS CITY 39.08N 94.50W
04/10/2008 E0.75 INCH JACKSON MO TRAINED SPOTTER
DIME SIZE HAIL AT INTERSECTION OF 23RD AND COLLEGE AVE
&&
DUXLocal storm report, Apr 10, 5:02 PM CDT, 11 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
502 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0439 PM HAIL 1 W BELTON 38.82N 94.55W
04/10/2008 E1.00 INCH CASS MO PUBLIC
NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY PUBLIC. LASTED
FOR FIVE MINUTES.
&&
MRDLocal storm report, Apr 10, 5:09 PM CDT, 4 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
509 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0503 PM HAIL EXCELSIOR SPRINGS 39.35N 94.23W
04/10/2008 E0.75 INCH CLAY MO PUBLIC
&&
DUXThe office that day
Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 5:48 AM CDT | Areal Flood Warning | EAX | Linn, Miami | 6 hr |
| Apr 10, 4:08 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EAX | Johnson, Wyandotte | 37 min |
| Apr 10, 4:31 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EAX | Johnson | 44 min |
| Apr 9, 8:20 PM CDT | River Flood Warning | EAX | Cass, Henry, Johnson | 43 hr |
| Apr 9, 8:20 PM CDT | River Flood Warning | EAX | Johnson, Pettis | 47 hr |
| Apr 9, 8:20 PM CDT | River Flood Warning | EAX | Chariton, Macon | 47 hr |
| Apr 9, 8:20 PM CDT | River Flood Warning | EAX | Carroll, Chariton | 5 days |
| Apr 9, 8:20 PM CDT | River Flood Warning | EAX | Howard | 32 hr |
| Apr 10, 3:27 AM CDT | River Flood Warning | EAX | Cooper | 43 hr |
| Apr 10, 7:10 AM CDT | River Flood Warning | EAX | Cooper | 33 hr |
| Apr 10, 8:06 AM CDT | River Flood Warning | EAX | Carroll | 13 hr |
| Apr 10, 12:03 PM CDT | Areal Flood Warning | EAX | Carroll, Chariton, Cooper, Howard, Johnson, Lafayette and 4 more | 4 days |
| Apr 10, 4:05 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | EAX | Harrison | 25 min |
| Apr 10, 4:22 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | EAX | Mercer | 14 min |
| Apr 10, 4:27 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | EAX | Putnam, Sullivan | 33 min |
| Apr 10, 5:11 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EAX | Caldwell, Clay, Jackson, Ray | 49 min |
| Apr 10, 5:54 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EAX | Putnam, Sullivan | 29 min |
| Apr 10, 6:45 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EAX | Adair, Putnam, Schuyler, Sullivan | 20 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kansas, 2008Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2008Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2008
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.