Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Kansas City, MO

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 311629
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1129 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

KSC107-MOC013-311700-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-080331T1700Z/
LINN KS-BATES MO-
1129 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN LINN
COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...AND BATES COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI UNTIL NOON CDT...

AT 1124 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF HUME...OR
7 MILES EAST OF PLEASANTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BUTLER BY 1145 AM CDT.
  8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ADRIAN BY 1150 AM CDT.

THE TOWN OF PASSAIC IS ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

THIS STORM HAS EXHIBITED SOME WEAK ROTATION. TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP
QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE
TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT
OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PLEASANT HILL.

LAT...LON 3819 9479 3841 9432 3819 9418 3805 9469
TIME...MOT...LOC 1629Z 244DEG 38KT 3820 9453

$$

DEROCHE

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 311639
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1139 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

KSC107-311649-
/O.CAN.KEAX.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-080331T1700Z/
LINN KS-
1139 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN LINN COUNTY IN EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS IS CANCELLED...

AT 1134 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA 
...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. 
THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PLEASANT HILL.

LAT...LON 3827 9462 3841 9432 3819 9418 3812 9453
      3810 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 1639Z 244DEG 38KT 3821 9444

$$

MOC013-311700-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-080331T1700Z/
BATES MO-
1139 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL BATES
COUNTY UNTIL NOON CDT...

AT 1134 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF
HUME...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF RICH HILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BUTLER BY 1150 AM CDT.

THE TOWN OF PASSAIC IS ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

THIS STORM HAS EXHIBITED SOME WEAK ROTATION. TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP
QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE
TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT
OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PLEASANT HILL.

LAT...LON 3827 9462 3841 9432 3819 9418 3812 9453
      3810 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 1639Z 244DEG 38KT 3821 9444

$$

DEROCHE

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 311648
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1148 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

MOC013-311700-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-080331T1700Z/
BATES MO-
1148 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL BATES
COUNTY UNTIL NOON CDT...

AT 1144 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BUTLER...MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL
BATES COUNTY.

THIS STORM HAS EXHIBITED SOME WEAK ROTATION. TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP
QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE
TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT
OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PLEASANT HILL.

LAT...LON 3831 9446 3841 9432 3826 9422 3825 9424
      3821 9443
TIME...MOT...LOC 1648Z 254DEG 32KT 3825 9435

$$

DEROCHE

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 311655
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1154 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

MOC013-311704-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-080331T1700Z/
BATES MO-
1154 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL BATES COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT NOON CDT...

AT 1153 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED...AND NO
LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PLEASANT HILL.

LAT...LON 3831 9446 3841 9432 3826 9422 3825 9424
      3821 9443
TIME...MOT...LOC 1654Z 254DEG 32KT 3826 9428

$$

DEROCHE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
953 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

.UPDATE...

...MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

VERY INTERESTING EVENT TOOK PLACE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ALONG
NRN PERIPHERY OF SRN MO MCS. INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING
FROM MESOSCALE BUBBLE HIGH TO THE SOUTH...COMBINED WITH DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM VIRGA/LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SRN CWA RESULTING
IN A GRAVITY WAVE THAT PRODUCED WIDESPREAD 60-70 MPH WINDS ACROSS
THE SW CWA. A SHARP DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA ALSO
SUGGESTS THAT EVAPORATIVE COOLING/DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM
VIRGA/LIGHT RAIN ALONG NRN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD WERE LARGELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DAMAGING WINDS. MCV CIRCULATION NOW EVIDENT IN
RADAR DATA...AND EXPECT THAT DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SE CWA (SALINE... HOWARD...NRN PETTIS...NRN COOPER)
THROUGH 16 OR 17Z.

BIG QUESTION REMAINS FOR THREAT OF SEVERE CONVECTION FOR TODAY. WARM
SECTOR IS NOW HIGHLY CONTAMINATED BY MCS WITH EMBEDDED SEVERE
ACTIVITY OVER SRN MO...WITH NEW CELL GENERATION OCCURING ALL THE WAY
BACK TO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ANALYZED OVER SE KS/NRN OK. CIRRUS
DEBRIS BLOWING OFF FROM THESE STORMS WAS HINDERING HEATING ACROSS
THE AREA...WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE NOW FORCED TO RECOVER AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS MCS. THE COLD FRONT IS ALSO MOVING A BIT
QUICKER...AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE REGION PRIMARILY BETWEEN 17 AND
00Z.

GIVEN OMINOUS 12Z SOUNDING FROM KTOP...EXPECTED CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT
ON THE CUSP BETWEEN A NULL EVENT VERSUS SIGNIFANCT SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION...WITH INSTABILITY THE PRIMARY INHIBITING FACTOR. SHEAR
PROFILES ARE ACTUALLY EVEN STRONGER THAN I HAD EXPECTED YESTERDAY...
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS REMAINED BACKED DUE TO A MORE N-S FRONTAL
ORIENTATION TO THE WEST...AND IN RESPONSE TO MCS TO OUR SOUTH.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. IF NARROW
TONGUE OF UPPER 50F TO 60F DEWPOINTS CAN RETURN NORTH AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...CERTAINLY ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WOULD
HAVE AN INHERENT THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AS
SOUNDINGS/HODOGRAPHS ARE LARGELY SUPPORTIVE OF A MINI-SUPERCELL
ENVIRONMENT.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/400 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008/
INTERESTING SCENARIO WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN
TROUGHING OVER THE WEST. ONE WAVE THIS MORNING IN NORTHWEST KANSAS
WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA BY MID MORNING...WHILE A
SECOND WAVE IN NEW MEXICO AT 12Z WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 18Z. A STRONG UPPER JET IN THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WILL BE CUTTING ACROSS TEXAS TODAY...BUT AN OFFSHOOT OF THIS
JET WILL BE DEVELOPING WITH ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
WITH THE FIRST SHORT WAVE. ALREADY SEEING THE EFFECTS OF THESE TWO
WAVES WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND A SECOND
CLUSTER ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

FOR THIS MORNING...EXPECT STORMS IN KANSAS TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TO
THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. THESE
STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED TO THE NORTH OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL BE
MOVING TO NEAR TOPEKA BY 12Z. MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE
HAIL. MAY ALSO SEE SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE WARM
SECTOR...BUT MAIN SHOW FOR STORMS IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE WITH
THE COLD FRONT AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. ONE INHIBITING FACTOR FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...SO DESPITE AREA COMING INTO THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE STORM...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE A BIT. STILL MODELS
ADVERTISE SBCAPES CLIMBING INTO THE 1000 TO 1200 RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH RAPIDLY WEAKENING CAP.
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WITH BOWING SEGMENTS THAT DEVELOP WITH STORMS ON THE FRONT...WITH
THE TORNADIC THREAT LESS LIKELY THIS FAR NORTH.

SEVERE THREAT WILL END WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THE COLDER AND
DRIER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. NEXT CHANCE OF STORMS
WILL ARRIVE LATER ON WEDNESDAY AS NEXT IN THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS HEADS TO THE REGION MID WEEK.

PC

&&

.AVIATION...

WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH QUICKLY. WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF THE SOUTH
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO TRIGGER A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MORNING IN EASTERN KANSAS.
TIMING OF FRONT SHOULD HAVE IT PAST THE TAF SITES BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND IT.  CIGS QUITE TRICKY WITH
THIS SITUATION. THERE IS A POTENTIAL OF A PERIOD OF SOME MVFR CIGS
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NAM SHOWING CIGS LIFTING THIS EVENING AS DRIER
AIR IS PULLED EAST OUT OF KANSAS AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN.

PC

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
604 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-011115-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
604 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING OUT OF EASTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING TO THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR BY ABOUT 1 PM...THEN TO A KIRKSVILLE TO CLINTON LINE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THE
STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH TO NOT PRODUCE A FLOODING THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...OVERSPREADING THE OUTLOOK
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY FOR MOST OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. EXTREME NORTHWEST MISSOURI
AND NORTHEAST KANSAS MAY NOT NEED SPOTTERS AS THE FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH BEFORE THE NOON HOUR.

PC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
921 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0912 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST CARROLLTON              39.36N 93.50W
03/31/2008  M60 MPH          CARROLL            MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

&&

GAMIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
944 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG KANSAS CITY             39.12N 94.55W
03/31/2008                   JACKSON            MO   PUBLIC

            SHINGLES WERE BLOWN OFF SEVERAL HOMES AROUND 114TH STREET
            AND BLUE RIDGE BOULEVARD. WINDS WERE ESTIMATED TO 60 MPH
            IN THAT AREA.

&&

GAMIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1035 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST WHITEMAN AFB            38.73N 93.55W
03/31/2008  M58.00 MPH       JOHNSON            MO   ASOS

            58 MPH MEASURED WIND GUST AT WHITEMAN AIR FORCE BASE.

0955 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST MARSHALL                39.12N 93.20W
03/31/2008  M60.00 MPH       SALINE             MO   AWOS

            MEASURED WIND GUST AT KMHL. ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY DEWPOINT
            DROP TO 45F.

1018 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 E KNOB NOSTER         38.77N 93.51W
03/31/2008  M54.00 MPH       PETTIS             MO   PUBLIC

            CW5990 CWOP NETWORK WEATHER STATION MEASURED GUST.

&&

BOOKBINDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1055 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1052 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 E BRUNSWICK           39.42N 93.07W
03/31/2008                   CHARITON           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TRACTOR TRAILER RIG BLOWN OVER ON HIGHWAY 24. SEVERAL
            TREES DOWNED AS WELL WITH THE HIGH WINDS...ESTIMATED TO
            AROUND 60 MPH.

&&

GAMIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1057 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG GREENWOOD               38.85N 94.34W
03/31/2008                   JACKSON            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            100-150 HOMES WITH SHINGLES BLOWN OFF TO TAR PAPER LEVEL.

&&

ADOLPHSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1107 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1102 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSE MOBERLY           39.41N 92.43W
03/31/2008  E60.00 MPH       RANDOLPH           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE GUSTING TO 60 MPH. SEVERAL TREE
            BRANCHES ARE DOWN.

&&

GAMIS