Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1246 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2008

.UPDATE...

...MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

VIOLENT SPEARHEAD ECHO HAS NOW SURGING FROM FRANKLIN COUNTY INTO
MIAMI COUNTY KANSAS ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HP STORM
MERGER/BOW EVOLUTION. INTENSE REFLECTIVITY GRADIENT (20 TO 70+ DBZ
OVER 2 KM) AND STRONG REAR INFLOW NOTCH ON THE LOWEST ELEVATION
SLICE PER KTWX RADAR INDICATIVE OF AN EXTREMELY SEVERE STORM. BASE
VELOCITY CROSS SECTIONS SHOW ONE OF THE MOST CLASSIC DESCENDING REAR
INFLOW JETS I HAVE EVER SEEN...WITH 85-90 KNOT WINDS NOW DESCENDING
FROM 12KFT AS THE STORM IS PUSHING ACROSS THE TOWN OF OSAWATOMIE.
ONE CAN ONLY HOPE THAT THIS STORM IS STILL SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AND NOT
MAXIMIZING ITS TOTAL WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL.

WITH A 70+ DBZ CORE STILL EXCEEDING 25KFT IN ALTITUDE...THIS STORM
ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE UP TO TWO INCH DIAMETER HAIL AT IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PERSONS OVER SOUTHWEST CASS COUNTY...NORTHEAST LINN AND ALL OF BATES
COUNTY SHOULD TAKE SHELTER NOW

BOOKBINDER

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
INSTABILITY AND FORCING MAXIMIZED BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
114 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-031815-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
114 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS SOUTH AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM PAOLA TO CLINTON WITH THE THREAT OF VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE SAME AREA CAN ALSO EXPECT TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

DAMAGING WINDS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
WAKE OF THE STORMS...WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS
OF 60 TO 70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI AS STORMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS NEBRASKA...AND HEAD TOWARDS THE AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THE AREA. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE ACTIVITY
MOVING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NECESSARY TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY OVER PORTIONS OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1253 PM CDT MON JUN 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     HAIL             RICH HILL               38.10N 94.36W
06/02/2008  E1.75 INCH       BATES              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

1240 PM     HAIL             RICH HILL               38.10N 94.36W
06/02/2008  E1.00 INCH       BATES              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

ADOLPHSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1254 PM CDT MON JUN 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OSAWATOMIE              38.50N 94.95W
06/02/2008                   MIAMI              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MIAMI COUNTY KANSAS SHERIFF OFFICE REPORTED POWER LINES
            DOWN IN OSAWATOMIE.

&&

MSINGER

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