Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1041 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2008

.UPDATE...

...MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

HP SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO TRACK SEWD ALONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY
BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH THE NUMBER OF STORMS HAS DECREASED DUE TO
MERGERS OVER THE PAST HOUR.

TWO LEAD CELLS TRACKING ACROSS LINN COUNTY KS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT HAIL OF AT LEAST GOLF BALL SIZE AS THEY TRACK
TOWARD EXTREME SOUTHWEST BATES COUNTIES AND INTO THE SGF CWA. BOTH
OF THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW CLASSIC RADAR SIGNATURES WITH VERY
LARGE THREE-BODY SCATTER SPIKES...PROLIFIC DEEP REFLECTIVITY CORES
AND IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL ROTATION/STORM TOP DIVERGENCE. GIVEN THAT
STORMS HAVE YET TO FULLY INGEST ANY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
(ALTHOUGH PROBABLY GETTING CLOSE)...DO NOT EXPECT ANY TORNADO THREAT
IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE LACK OF
VELOCITY SIGNATURES IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSANDS FEET ON WSR-88D.

MEANWHILE...TEXTBOOK HP SUPERCELL MERGER EVOLUTION ONGOING NEAR
TOPEKA AND THE TRANSITION TO A PARTICULAR DAMAGING SMALL SCALE BOW
ECHO APPEARS TO BE ONGOING. ATTENDANT VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL
ALSO CONTINUE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT COULD SEE WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF HURRICANE FORCE AS THIS SMALL SCALE EVENT BEGINS TO
DEVELOP A REAR INFLOW AND FEEDS OFF INCREASING DOWNSTREAM BUOYANCY.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN KC METRO INCLUDING
SOUTHERN LEAVENWORTH AND MUCH OF JOHNSON COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR
AND A HALF.

BOOKBINDER

...PREVIOUS MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW A RAPID UPSWING IN CONVECTION ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS WITH AN ARCING LINE OF ELEVATED SUPERCELLS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GREAT PLAINS CAP. THIS MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS BEING FED BY A MODEST 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS. 12Z KTOP SOUNDING SHOWED NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
IN THE 750-500MB LAYER COINCIDING WITH THE HAIL GROWTH REGION.
THUS...THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...WITH THE CAPABILITY FOR STONES LARGER THAN
BASEBALL SIZE.

IN ADDITION...AS THE INFLOW AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE QUICKLY DUE TO STRONG INSOLATION AND INFLUX
OF NEAR 70F DEWPOINTS...THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME ROOTED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS /IF NOT SOONER/. GIVEN
THE IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AVAILABLE...THIS MAY RESULT IN AN
ADDITIONAL DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.

STORM MOTION WILL BE LARGELY DICTATED BY THE NATURE OF THE
STORMS...AS WELL AS ANY MODIFICATION OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT.
SUPERCELLS WILL TEND TO TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST...WITH
NON-ROTATING STORMS AND LEFT SPLITS GENERALLY OFFERING AN EAST OR
EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION.

PRIMARY THREAT AREA /GENERALLY AFTER 16Z/ WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE KC METRO AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. IN ADDITION TO
THE VARIOUS AFOREMENTIONED SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...TRAINING HP
SUPERCELLS ALONG THERE CURRENT TRACK COULD EASILY PRODUCE 2-4 INCHES
OF RAIN IN VERY SHORT ORDER RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
INSTABILITY AND FORCING MAXIMIZED BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
558 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-031100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
558 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KANSAS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND
NORTHERN MISSOURI BY MID MORNING. SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS OVER MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...AND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN MISSOURI. ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MISSOURI OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEARLY EVERY DAY. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI AS A STALLED BOUNDARY
REMAINS IN THE AREA. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO THE LOCATION
OF THIS BOUNDARY AND WHETHER A LARGE LAYER OF WARM AIR ALOFT CAN SUPPRESS
THIS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS AS TO THE
EXACT LOCATIONS AND TIMING OF SEVERE WEATHER...THEREFORE EMERGENCY
MANAGERS AND ALL OTHER INTERESTED PARTIES ARE URGED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES.

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR REPEATED EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS WEEK...FLOODING OF RIVERS AND STREAMS MAY BECOME A CONCERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA...AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN NORTHERN MISSOURI.

DUX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1120 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1118 AM     HAIL             MOUND CITY              40.14N 95.23W
06/02/2008  E1.75 INCH       HOLT               MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LINN COUNTY KS EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZE
            HAIL 2 MILES NORTH OF STATE HIGHWAY 31

&&

MSINGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1131 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     HAIL             2 S PRESCOTT            38.03N 94.70W
06/02/2008  E0.75 INCH       LINN               KS   PUBLIC

&&

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1132 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1112 AM     HAIL             2 W MOUND CITY KS       38.14N 94.86W
06/02/2008  E1.00 INCH       LINN               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY LINN COUNTY SHERIFF 2
            MILES WEST OF MOUND CITY, KANSAS

1118 AM     HAIL             MOUND CITY KS           38.14N 94.82W
06/02/2008  E1.75 INCH       LINN               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LINN COUNTY KS EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZE
            HAIL 2 MILES NORTH OF STATE HIGHWAY 31

&&

MSINGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1136 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1134 AM     HAIL             2 S PRESCOTT            38.03N 94.70W
06/02/2008  E1.75 INCH       LINN               KS   PUBLIC

&&

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1147 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 AM     HAIL             MOUND CITY KS           38.14N 94.82W
06/02/2008  E1.00 INCH       LINN               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY LINN COUNTY SHERIFF IN
            MOUND CITY, KS.

&&

MSINGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1149 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1101 AM     HAIL             3 W CENTERVILLE KS      38.22N 95.07W
06/02/2008  M1.00 INCH       LINN               KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            NICKEL AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL LASTED A COUPLE OF MINUTES.

&&

KBRONIS