River Flood Warning 20, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
430 PM CST SUN FEB 17 2008

.DISCUSSION...

SNOW EXITED THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING WINTER STORM HAS RESULTED IN
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 40KTS. WIND ADVISORIES WILL
ISSUED FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MO/ADJACENT EASTERN KS TILL
00Z AND FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MO TILL 04Z. GRADIENT
WILL RELAX THIS EVENING ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH...BUT
STILL REMAIN IN THE BREEZY CATEGORY OVERNIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH MONDAY. LEAD SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAS GENERATED BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN NE. ALTHOUGH SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD FREE REGIONS HELPED
FUEL THIS PRECIPITATION BELIEVE THERE IS SUFFICIENT PVA TO MAINTAIN
A THREAT OF AT LEAST FLURRIES OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES A BIT OF A CHALLENGE DUE TO LACK OF COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
NOW OVER CENTRAL SD WILL PROVIDE THE BULK OF THE COOLING FOR OUR
CWA...BUT THAT BOUNDARY WILL NOT REACH NORTHWEST MO UNTIL AROUND
09Z. SO EVENING SHIFT MAY HAVE TO SLOW THE COOLING DOWN EVEN FURTHER
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND EVEN RAISE LOWS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA.

MJ

(MONDAY-SUNDAY)...

MODELS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN OF A DEEP POLAR VORTEX COVERING THE ERN HALF OF
CANADA...WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING ACROSS WRN CANADA. WITH
CONTINUED NRN STREAM BLOCKING OVER WRN EUROPE...ONLY SRN STREAM
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE WRN RIDGE WILL BE PROGRESSIVE FEATURES IN THE
FLOW REGIME. ASIDE FROM INCONSISTENCIES IN FORECASTING THE STRENGTH
OF A SRN STREAM WAVE EJECTING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS ARE QUITE SIMILAR BETWEEN ALL MODEL
SUITES...SUPPORTING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND QPF NOT ATYPICAL
FOR FEBRUARY.

UNFORTUNATELY...DESPITE THE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL ON HEIGHT
FIELDS...EITHER THERMAL FIELDS AT AND BELOW H7 UPSTREAM WERE
INITIALIZED IMPROPERLY...OR THE EVOLUTION OF SUCH FIELDS BECOME
SIGNIFICANTLY COMPLICATED AND COMPROMISED BY OTHER PROCESSES.
ANALYSIS OF EVEN 09Z SREF FORECAST TEMPS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOW A REMARKABLE SPREAD...WITH H8 TEMPS RANGING OVER 20C...AND
TRANSLATING TO 2M TEMP SPREADS ON THE ORDER OF 50F (THE LARGEST SUCH
SPREAD THIS FORECASTER HAS EVER SEEN) SIMILAR SPREADS IN POSSIBLE
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
GFS ENSEMBLE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ON THE ORDER OF 4-5 DEGREES
(AGAIN...AN UNCOMMONLY LARGE SPREAD). THUS...WHILE THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE WOULD APPEAR STRAIGHT FORWARD...LARGE UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND.
HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF THE OVERALL PATTERN
SUPPORTING COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND HAVE FORECAST SLIGHTLY UNDER
ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPS...THOUGH NOT AS LOW AS MEX GUIDANCE (ALTHOUGH
DPROG/DT OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS WOULD SUGGEST A DEFINITE TREND
TOWARDS COLDER TEMPERATURES).

MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST INCREASING CAA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
MONDAY...AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
FINALLY ALLOWS A 1024MB SFC HIGH TO SLIDE INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST 1000-850MB THICKNESSES INDICATE THE RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES SEEN OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY SHOULD ADVECT INTO MISSOURI
MONDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
WITH NUMEROUS CLOUD STREAMERS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES AS SUGGESTED BY
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SHOULD SEE FAIRLY NICE WARMING BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW COMMENCES ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE. CURRENT SNOW COVER WILL LARGELY
DETERMINE THE TRUE MAGNITUDE OF WARMING FOR MANY LOCATIONS...AND
HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT SOMEWHAT RETARDED HIGH TEMPS FOR LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED DEEPER SNOWFALL TODAY.

MODEL TRENDS HAVE DECIDEDLY SHOWN A MORE INTENSE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SPILLING SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AN ACCORDINGLY FURTHER SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS INCREASED
STRENGTH...HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF WEATHER UNTIL THE SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ACTUALLY IMPINGES UPON THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...AS ANY
AMOUNT OF RETURN FLOW/ISENTROPIC LIFT TYPE PRECIPITATION PROCESSES
WILL ALMOST ASSUREDLY BE EATEN AWAY BY THE DRY ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WELL AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. SOME QUESTION AS TO POSSIBLE
PRECIP TYPE FRIDAY AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUDGES
EAST...AND LEE TROUGHING AND SFC PRESSURE FALLS BEGIN OVER THE SRN
AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. PARTIAL THICKNESS ANALYSIS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN INITIAL FZRA/IP MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...STILL FAR TOO EARLY TO
DEFINITIVELY ADVERTISE SUCH A FROZEN MIX OF PRECIPITATION...BUT
SEVERAL SIGNS DO EXIST FOR SUCH AN EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

21

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAF...SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY 20Z AT ALL 3 TERMINALS WITH
CEILINGS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTING UP TO 35 KTS AT STJ AND 30 KTS
AT MCI/MKC. UPSTREAM OBS OVER NEBRASKA SUGGEST WE SHOULD SEE VFR
CEILINGS FOR A HANDFUL OF HOURS LATER THIS EVENING BUT BELIEVE WE
WILL DROP BACK TO HIGH END MVFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WE WILL SEE A A
GRADUAL REDUCTION IN WINDS/GUSTS THIS EVENING. FOR THE 12Z-18Z
MONDAY PERIOD AM EXPECTING HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING/BECOMING GUSTY BY LATE MORNING. FLURRIES OR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES ARE TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

MJ

&&

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR MOZ001-MOZ002-MOZ003-MOZ004-
     MOZ011-MOZ012-MOZ013-MOZ020-MOZ021-MOZ028-MOZ029-MOZ037.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY FOR MOZ005-MOZ006-MOZ007-
     MOZ008-MOZ014-MOZ015-MOZ016-MOZ022-MOZ023.

KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR KSZ025-KSZ102-KSZ103-KSZ104-
     KSZ105.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
415 PM CST SUN FEB 17 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-182215-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
415 PM CST SUN FEB 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH WILL AFFECT WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THESE SAME WINDS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH MID EVENING. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY FROM MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME...THERE IS A RISK
OF WINTRY WEATHER RANGING FROM FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
SNOW. A COLD FRONT WILL LIE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION. IT IS STILL TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE DEFINITIVELY WHICH PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL OCCUR
AND HOW MUCH OF IT. EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS
FOR UPDATED INFORMATION ON THIS SITUATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER REPORTS OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ARE APPRECIATED.

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1235 PM CST SUN FEB 17 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1234 PM     SNOW             ST JOSEPH               39.76N 94.85W
02/17/2008  M4.0 INCH        BUCHANAN           MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

1234 PM     SNOW             LEAVENWORTH             39.32N 94.92W
02/17/2008  M3.0 INCH        LEAVENWORTH        KS   PUBLIC

&&

21

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
205 PM CST SUN FEB 17 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0203 PM     SNOW             TRENTON                 40.08N 93.60W
02/17/2008  E3.4 INCH        GRUNDY             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            SNOW HAS ENDED.

&&

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
223 PM CST SUN FEB 17 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0222 PM     SNOW             TRENTON                 40.08N 93.60W
02/17/2008  M3.4 INCH        GRUNDY             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            SNOW HAS ENDED

&&

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
333 PM CST SUN FEB 17 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     SNOW             SHAWNEE                 39.02N 94.80W
02/17/2008  M3.5 INCH        JOHNSON            KS   PUBLIC

&&

MRD