River Flood Warning 19, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1148 AM CST SUN FEB 17 2008

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

NEEDED TO INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN MO DUE TO
REPORTS COMING IN. ALSO CANCELLED THE REST OF THE FLOOD WATCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL EITHER HOLD STEADY OR EVEN CREEP UP INTO THE MID
30S. NO COLD AIR TO BE FOUND.

MJ

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/430 AM CST SUN FEB 17 2008/

FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM...FINALLY SEEING THE DYNAMIC COOLING TAKING
PLACE WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER OKLAHOMA. ALSO EXPECTING BY 12Z TO BE
SEEING EFFECTS OF COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN INTO THIS SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTH. THUS STILL CONFIDENT WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A RAPID TRANSITION
TO SNOW TAKING PLACE THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN TRICKY
AS IT WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY AN AREA CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW...AND THEN HOW LONG THE SNOW WILL LAST AS THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO
ACCELERATE THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS
STORM...COULD EASILY SEE SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH AN HOUR...SO
STILL FAIRLY CONFIDENT A FAIRLY BROAD AREA FROM AROUND KANSAS CITY
AND ST JOSEPH...NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL SEE 3 TO
6 INCHES. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN INCREASING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW. THESE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN AREAS BY MID
MORNING AND THEN OVERTAKE ALL THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW STILL EXPECTED AND
WILL KEEP ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS GOING WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW IS
EXPECTED.

STILL ALSO CONCERNED WITH AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...SO WILL KEEP FLOOD WATCH GOING
THROUGH NOON.

FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY...WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING...AS AREA IS AFFECTED BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH
MORE LIMITED...SO ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION. WILL GO MORE TOWARD
A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WITH THE COLDER AIR EXPECTED.

PC

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAF...SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY 20Z AT ALL 3 TERMINALS WITH
CEILINGS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTING UP TO 35 KTS AT STJ AND 30 KTS
AT MCI/MKC. UPSTREAM OBS OVER NEBRASKA SUGGEST WE SHOULD SEE VFR
CEILINGS FOR A HANDFUL OF HOURS LATER THIS EVENING BUT BELIEVE WE
WILL DROP BACK TO HIGH END MVFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WE WILL SEE A A
GRADUAL REDUCTION IN WINDS/GUSTS THIS EVENING. FOR THE 12Z-18Z
MONDAY PERIOD AM EXPECTING HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING/BECOMING GUSTY BY LATE MORNING. FLURRIES OR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES ARE TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

MJ

&&

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR MOZ001-MOZ002-MOZ003-
     MOZ004-MOZ005-MOZ011-MOZ012.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY FOR MOZ006-MOZ007-MOZ008.

     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM SUNDAY FOR
     MOZ013-MOZ020-MOZ021-MOZ028-MOZ029-MOZ037-MOZ043.

     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR MOZ014-
     MOZ015-MOZ016-MOZ017-MOZ022-MOZ023-MOZ024-MOZ025-MOZ030-
     MOZ031-MOZ032-MOZ038-MOZ039.

KS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM SUNDAY FOR KSZ025-
     KSZ057-KSZ102-KSZ103-KSZ104-KSZ105.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
111 PM CST SUN FEB 17 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-181915-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
111 PM CST SUN FEB 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS EAT OF A BETHANY TO HARRISONVILLE LINE
THROUGH 2 PM...WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW REACHING A PRINCETON TO
SEDALIA LINE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IS LIKELY
OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI...ROUGHLY NORTH AND EAST OF AN ATLANTA TO
BROOKFIELD TO PRINCETON LINE. LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND UNIONVILLE
AND LANCASTER COULD SEE UP TO ANOTHER 2 INCHES.

IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO BETWEEN 30 AND
40 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.
THESE WINDS WILL CREATE BLOWING SNOW WHERE SNOW IS FALLING AS WELL AS
THE POTENTIAL TO DAMAGE ANY ICE/SNOW LADEN UTILITY WIRES. AS THE
STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WINTRY WEATHER MOVES AWAY THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY...BUT ONLY MINOR
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME...THERE IS A RISK
OF WINTRY WEATHER RANGING FROM FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
SNOW. A COLD FRONT WILL LIE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION. IT IS STILL TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE DEFINITIVELY WHICH PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL OCCUR
AND HOW MUCH OF IT. EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS
FOR UPDATED INFORMATION ON THIS SITUATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER REPORTS OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ARE APPRECIATED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1213 PM CST SUN FEB 17 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1208 PM     SNOW             HOLT                    39.45N 94.34W
02/17/2008  M1.5 INCH        CLAY               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HMORGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1220 PM CST SUN FEB 17 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1219 PM     SNOW             KIRKSVILLE              40.20N 92.58W
02/17/2008  M3.0 INCH        ADAIR              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WET AND HEAVY SNOW.

&&

HMORGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1235 PM CST SUN FEB 17 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1234 PM     SNOW             ST JOSEPH               39.76N 94.85W
02/17/2008  M4.0 INCH        BUCHANAN           MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

1234 PM     SNOW             LEAVENWORTH             39.32N 94.92W
02/17/2008  M3.0 INCH        LEAVENWORTH        KS   PUBLIC

&&

21

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
205 PM CST SUN FEB 17 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0203 PM     SNOW             TRENTON                 40.08N 93.60W
02/17/2008  E3.4 INCH        GRUNDY             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            SNOW HAS ENDED.

&&

MJ